Predicting the NCAA Tournament: Game by Game

Lately, my friends have been asking, "Are you ready for the Madness?" Are you excited?

Am I? I feel like I've experienced Madness (if not in March) the past two months. While this college basketball season has rightfully been criticized for a continued decrease in scoring (see: Georgetown 37, Tennessee 36 ... and many other sub-50s games), great rivalries gone dormant (thanks, Missouri for ditching the Big 12), and continued reshuffling of schools to new conferences (thanks, football), it's also been wildly exciting.

Consider these 26 buzzer-beaters that occurred. Consider just the Big Ten, the nation's best conference, that produced a dozen instant classics, with the regular-season championship race coming down to the very last second (ugh, Michigan...). And consider the emergence of schools in the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, even if the casual fan doesn't know the difference between a Billiken and a Lobo.

So madness? It's not starting. It's continuing. 

Which makes this bracket extremely difficult to predict. Just a few of the questions that are boggling my mind as we prepare for play-in Tuesday:

1) How good is the Pac-12? The Selection Committee quacked in the face of Oregon, giving the conference tournament champion a 12 seed. But how good, really, are the Ducks? Or UCLA? Or Cal? They all battled down to the wire for the conference championship, but did close to nothing outside of the league.

2) How good is the Mountain West? New Mexico has the second best RPI in the country, but that was helped by playing Division II schools that don't lower a school's rating. I like the Lobos, but are they better than Ohio State, which survived the grind of the Big Ten?

Those are just a couple of the difficult questions to answer heading into the Dance. All right, I'll stop blabbering. Here are my picks. As always, copy and paste with caution.

PLAY-IN ROUND

(16) North Carolina A&T def. (16) Liberty: The magical run ends for sub-.500 Liberty.

(11) St. Mary's def. (11) MTSU: Two words: Matthew Deleevedova .

(16) LIU Brooklyn def. (16) James Madison: Life is hard enough as a 16 seed, but the Dukes' leading scorer celebrated a bit too hard after winning the CAA.

(13) Boise State def. (13) La Salle: Mountain West > Atlantic 10.

MIDWEST

2ND ROUND

(1) Louisville def. (16) North Carolina A&T: Yeah, 40-point win.

(8) Colorado State def. (9) Missouri: Colorado State is big and rebounds well. Missouri is your typical underachiever. 

(12) Oregon def. (5) Oklahoma State: Will any team in the field come out with more to prove than the Ducks? I think not.

(4) St. Louis def. (13) New Mexico State: Not a contest. The WAC is whack. 

(6) Memphis def. (11) St. Mary's: Memphis doesn't make free throws or play much defense. That shouldn't matter against a very mediocre St. Mary's squad.

(3) Michigan State def. (14) Valpo: Valpo is the most experienced team in the field, but they're facing perhaps the best tournament coach in his home state. Not happening.

(7) Creighton def. (10) Cincinnati: Was impressed with how Creighton's players not named McDermott responded in the MVC championship game.

(2) Duke def. (15) Albany: Who doesn't love the Great Danes? Not Duke on this night, with memories of Lehigh in Coach K's head.

3RD ROUND

(1) Louisville def. (8) Colorado State: Colton Iverson, meet Gorgui Dieng. He will make life very difficult for you down low.

(4) St. Louis def. (12) Oregon: The Ducks haven't faced anyone as physical and well-balanced as the Billikens in the Pac-12. 

(3) Michigan State def. (6) Memphis: Not much of a contest, as Spartans' in-your-face defense rattles Tigers.

(2) Duke def. (7) Creighton: Blue Jays might score with Duke for a half, but it's a 40-minute game, folks.

SWEET 16

(1) Louisville def. (4) St. Louis: This will be a grinder for the Cardinals, but their experienced backcourt of Smith and Siva will be the difference.

(2) Duke def. (3) Michigan State: So tough to predict. I just trust Duke a tiny bit more in late-game situations. Spartans have been shaky late in losses to OSU, Indiana and Michigan.

ELITE 8

(1) Louisville def. (2) Duke: This is where Duke's reliance on the 3 will cost them, and tired legs plus Seth Curry and his injury on just a day's rest won't help. Cardinals back to the Final Four.

WEST

SECOND ROUND

(1) Gonzaga def. (16) Southern: This is the game where East Coast fans will see the Zags and remark, 'Oh, damn, they're really good.'

(8) Pitt def. (9) Wichita State: The Shockers haven't seen anything close to Pitt's defense in the MVC.

(5) Wisconsin def. (12) Mississippi: Can't wait for this game! The Badgers' methodical, plodding attack against Marshall 'just chuck it up' Henderson and his swag. 

(4) Kansas State def. (13) Boise State: I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos pulled off this upset, but the Wildcats play solid defense and are playing in Kansas City.

(6) Arizona def. (11) Belmont: I've always picked Belmont, but the Bruins have let me down with five straight losses in the Dance. Can't take 'em again until they win one. Otherwise, I might...

(3) New Mexico def. (14) Harvard: If you haven't seen Tony Snell play, you're missing out. Dude runs around screens as hard as Richard Hamilton. 

(10) Iowa State def. (7) Notre Dame: Normally I don't pick teams so reliant on the 3-pointer, but here's a hunch that the Cyclones get hot for one game. 

(2) Ohio State def. (15) Iona: Momo Jones ain't gonna have a mojo facing Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott.

3RD ROUND

(1) Gonzaga def. (8) Pitt: You might think that the Big East's Pitt (at least for this tournament still) will outmuscle the Zags. Clearly, you haven't met Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. 

(5) Wisconsin def. (4) Kansas State: Thought you were done with ugly Big Ten games? Think again. This game (a rematch of the 2011 game when their seeds were switched) will have the same result — but lower scoring.

(3) New Mexico def. (6) Arizona: Mountain West > Pac-12. Tony Snell > anyone on 'Zona.

(2) Ohio State def. (10) Iowa State: Cyclones guards will struggle mightily against Buckeyes' pressure defense.

SWEET 16

(1) Gonzaga def. (5) Wisconsin: Badgers will push the 'Zags to the brink, but Gonzaga's balance will prove the difference as Wisconsin can't just focus on perimeter shooters. 

(2) Ohio State def. (3) New Mexico: The Lobos' most similar opponent to the Buckeyes was St. Louis, which routed them 60-46. That was almost three months ago, but I'm predicting a similar result.

ELITE 8

(2) Ohio State def. (1) Gonzaga: I can't go against a team that's coming off wins at Indiana and over Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are rolling, their guards will give the 'Zags fits, and if LaQuinton Ross keeps getting better, he'll be a (large) force in the lane. 

SOUTH

SECOND ROUND

(1) Kansas def. (16) Western Kentucky: Think the Jayhawks remember last year's UNC Asheville scare? Yeah, this will be a rout.

(8) North Carolina def. (9) Villanova: Tar Heels are so explosive and playing with great confidence, I'll take them to shoot their way past up-and-down 'Nova.

(5) VCU def. (12) Akron: Playing VCU without your starting point guard? Death trap.

(4) Michigan def. (13) South Dakota State: In high-scoring game, Jackrabbits (fourth-worst defensively in Field of 68) will have no answer for Trey Burke.

(11) Minnesota def. (6) UCLA: Welcome to the game of teams I don't like. I'll make a guess that the Gophers play more like the team that beat Indiana than the one that couldn't manage 50 vs. Illinois.

(3) Florida def. (14) Northwestern State: The Gators are 0-6 in games decided by single digits. This won't be one of those games.

(7) San Diego State def. (10) Oklahoma: Very interesting matchup as Lon Kruger takes on his former MWC opponent. I'll bank on SDSU's upperclassman backcourt and two years of tourney experience.

(2) Georgetown def. (15) Florida Gulf Coast: FGCU is in just its second year of Division I play. The Hoyas have been around while.

THIRD ROUND

(1) Kansas def. (8) North Carolina: Oh, baby! Most hyped matchup of this round! Roy vs. his old school! CBS will love this one, but Roy won't enjoy his 3-point shooters going cold from deep.

(12) VCU def. (4) Michigan: I love my Wolverines, but outside of Burke, their ballhandling is shaky and they'll struggle with just a day to prepare for VCU's havoc 2-2-1 press. 

(3) Florida def. (11) Minnesota: Florida is a much more balanced, more disciplined version of the Gophers. 

(2) Georgetown def. (7) San Diego State: Hoyas' stifling man-to-man and matchup 2-3 zone will overwhelm the Aztecs in Philly.

SWEET 16

(1) Kansas def. (12) VCU: The tournament of learning lessons continues for the Jayhawks, who — with time to prepare — will break the VCU pressure with ease, score often in transition, and avenge that 2011 Elite Eight loss.

(2) Georgetown def. (3) Florida: The Hoyas are more than a one-man outfit, and I find it impossible to believe they'll be blown out, which means a close game. In that scenario, I'll take Otto Porter any day over Florida's "who gets the ball?" approach.

ELITE 8

(1) Kansas def. (2) Georgetown: The Jayhawks' combo of Travis Releford and Perry Ellis will stymie Porter, and the Hoyas lack an answer for Jeff Withey in the post.

EAST

SECOND ROUND

(1) Indiana def. (16) Long Island: The Blackbirds are back in the Dance for the third consecutive year and will score against Indiana. Just not quite as much as the Hoosiers.

(8) N.C. State def. (9) Temple: I've been on the Wolfpack's bandwagon all year long. I'm not jumping off now, even despite their inexplicable no-show performances.

(5) UNLV def. (12) Cal: In an unavoidable quirk in the bracket, these teams that played in the regular season are back at it on Thursday. UNLV won at Cal, barely (76-75), the first time. I'll take the Rebels again even in San Jose.

(4) Syracuse def. (13) Montana: I really want to pick this upset, but the Grizzlies are without their leading scorer. The 'Cuse survive — barely.

(6) Butler def. (11) Bucknell. I've seen Bucknell in person, and the Bison nearly lost at woeful American. Brad Stevens will devise a way to limit the touches for All-American candidate Mike Muscala. 

(14) Davidson def. (3) Marquette: The over-seeded Golden Eagles are in for a battle against an upperclassmen-dominated, well-coached Davidson squad that's determined to have a better showing than last year.

(10) Colorado def. (7) Illinois: The Buffs have the big guards to defend Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, and Illinois' reliance on the 3-pointer will cost 'em.

(2) Miami def. (15) Pacific: All Jim Larranaga has to do to motivate his team for this one? Mention "Florida Gulf Coast."

THIRD ROUND

(1) Indiana def. (8) N.C. State: The Wolfpack are as talented as the Hoosiers, if not as deep, but Richard Howell's offensive game doesn't match that of his opponent Cody Zeller. Indiana outlasts 'Pack.

(5) UNLV def. (4) Syracuse: OK, Syracuse, time to call it a tournament. Lack of leadership dooms Orange against balanced Rebels.

(6) Butler def. (14) Davidson: Do I love this Butler team? Nope. But when it comes to Brad Stevens, I ain't doubting them in the Dance.

(2) Miami def. (10 Colorado: The Buffs may have big guards, but no one who can keep up with Shane Larkin and his playmaking ability.

SWEET 16

(1) Indiana def. (5) UNLV: After the Big Ten grind the Hoosiers went through, this one will be a breeze. 

(2) Miami def. (6) Butler: How awesome is this? Larranaga, coach of that memorable George Mason outfit, against the best mid-major guy in the land! Unfortunately for Stevens, he doesn't have Kenny Kadji, Julian Gamble, Durand Scott and, oh, Larkin at his disposal. 

ELITE 8

(1) Indiana def. (2) Miami: This one's a toss-up, really, but the difference for me is consistency — the Hoosiers have been offensively efficient all season and have great inside-outside balance. Miami, on the other hand, has gone through really bad shooting nights and doesn't rebound as well. IU by a hair.

FINAL FOUR

(1) Louisville def. (2) Ohio State: How fun will this be for those millions of defensive enthusiasts out there?? Yes, this could be uglier than a bad Russ Smith shooting game. But in the end, Louisville's depth (nine players log at least 11.2 mpg) will be the difference.

(1) Kansas def. (1) Indiana: It doesn't get much more storied than this matchup, which will be a bit more aesthetic than the other semifinal. This has all the elements of a great game. The big-man matchup: Zeller vs. Withey. The high-flyers (Oladipo vs. McLemore). And more. But for me, this comes down to Kansas have the quick wings to defend Indiana's smaller guards. And senior experience. The Jayhawks return to the national title game.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(1) Louisville def. (1) Kansas, 68-62: I've been high on Louisville for over a month, when close to no one was talking about the Cardinals. Outside of a three-game hiccup (sound familiar, Jayhawks?), the Cardinals have been the most consistently good team all season in college basketball. And unlike a team such as Indiana, they stay in every game by playing pestering defense, including the press. This will be a defensive game, with the difference being Louisville's ability to turn over Kansas' sometimes questionable guards. Also, we know that Russ Smith and Peyton Siva will have the ball in their hands at crunch time. I'm not as confident in Kansas freshman McLemore.

Let the madness, um, continue!

Trey Burke saves the night (and a chance at the championship)

Early in the second half at Mackey Arena Wednesday night, it was happening again. As if overtaken by some superior power, Michigan's basketball players were failing to execute the simplest hand-eye coordination plays most kids have down by age 3.

They were losing it, falling apart, on their way to another debilitating road loss, this one, finally, to extinguish their barely flickering Big Ten title hopes. 

Trey Burke intercepted a Purdue pass on a Boilermakers fast break but then, inexplicably, lost the ball as he turned to head upcourt. A Purdue player picked it up, made a layup, and was fouled. 

Disaster. 

Jordan Morgan and Nik Stauskas went up for a rebound against no Purdue defenders, and somehow the ball — oh, that tricky sphere! — eluded them and bounced to a Boilermaker. 

The Wolverines were slow, as if in a trance. 

They had already blown a double-digit lead for the third consecutive game. And they seemed well on their way to faltering against another lowly Big Ten opponent and losing their fifth consecutive game on the road, with no wins away from the friendly confines of Crisler Center since late January.

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Burke was part of the problem. His shot was off. He was getting completely outplayed by the Boilermakers' Terone Johnson, who had the performance of his lifetime. 

Apparently, Terone and his bro Ronnie started talking a little trash to Burke. That helped wake him up, I'm sure. But maybe also the fact the his team desperately needed him. After his clutch performance in Michigan's 58-57 victory Sunday over Michigan State, Burke talked about how he had worked at taking on that leadership role and inspiring his teammates.

On Wednesday, Burke had to start a comeback from 12 points down solely by himself. His young teammates looked lost and couldn't grab a loose ball if their scholarships depended on it. 

Burke took over.

First, he hit a contested 3-pointer from the top of the key with 11 minutes, 7 seconds left to cut the deficit to 52-43. On the next possession, he drained a beautiful step-back jumper from the left baseline. 

Burke's teammates were uplifted. Suddenly, the margin didn't seem such a burden. Nik "bandaid" Stauskas — a few days removed from throwing up during halftime of the MSU game after a nasty, unintentional elbow from the Spartans' Branden Dawson — drained a huge 3-pointer to cut the deficit to 54-48.

From there, Burke scored nine of Michigan's next 11 points to finally regain the lead on a jumper with 5:20 left. 

The sophomore point guard put his team on his back and carried them from the brink of tremendous disappointment. Name me five players in the country who could have done that. You'll probably fail. 

Trey Burke is the National Player of the Year. At the beginning of the year, when Michigan was trampling mediocre opponents, the cast around him looked a little better than they actually are — and it's been exposed playing in the country's toughest conference. Burke, though, has been as good as  advertised since Day 1 of practice. 

And like any great player, his teammates feed off him. On three of four possessions as Michigan hung to its reclaimed lead, Stauskas looked like the aggressive, swagger-showing player he was in November, December and January — drilling a contested 3-pointer from the left wing and then making consecutive strong drives to the basket, absorbing the contact and making the free throws.

Burke reinvigorated the freshman, like any great leader would do, then — legs still seemingly fresh — helped ice the game by shooting 7-for-8 from the free-throw line in the final 57 seconds, with the only miss coming after his own coach, John Beilein, iced him to set up the defense!

Michigan, overall, is far from a great team. They're probably not a Final Four team. All you had to do was watch Purdue's final possession, when the Boilermakes were down 78-75 and the Wolverines' Jordan Morgan and Glenn Robinson Jr. unbelievably miscommunicated and left Ronnie Johnson by himself at the top of the key.

Thankfully, Ronnie had no intention of taking a wide-open 3 and instead threw a bullet pass to his red-hot brother Terone, who tried to shoot before he had the ball. 

Burke put the game out of reach with two free throws, and gives Michigan a chance to claim a share of the Big Ten championship Sunday against Indiana at home, where the Wolverines typically have better control of their bodies. '

Let's be thankful for that.

And Burke — wherever he's playing. 

Living vicariously through Michigan basketball

As I sat in Row J of Section 117 at Verizon Center Wednesday night — a $50 seat I had snatched for the price of a beer a month earlier when the Wizards were garbage — I should have been enjoying myself. 

My hometown Detroit Pistons were putting on a clinic of domination I hadn't seen since the six-straight-years-in-the-Eastern-Conference-Finals group that we used to take for granted (oh, how we'd take a simple playoff berth now). 

Brandon Knight looked like an All-Star, absolutely owning former No. 1 pick John Wall, who couldn't hang onto the ball much less make a J. Greg Monroe, back in his college city, was putting on a show for Hoya Nation, knocking down 18-footer after 18-footer from behind the right elbow. 

The Pistons snatched the lead from the Wizards in the third quarter on a Monroe jumper, 66-64. A few minutes later, it was 75-64. And when Knight drilled a 25-footer, it was 78-64 and Washington fans were booing the home team. 

Amazing, right? I should have been flaunting my ugly teal Joe D jersey, right? I mean, we only get to see the Pistons down here twice a year.

Except that I didn't care about the game. Not one bit. 

In fact, I was hardly even watching. 

Instead, my eyes were glued to my phone, witnessing via ESPN Gamecast, Twitter and texts from my man Tick the horror story taking place some 206 miles away in State College, Pa.

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Growing up —and, to a certain extent, to this day — my Dad always said something that made sense to me about missing games in which our rooting interest (Detroit Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, etc.) would likely lose and/or ended up losing.

"You didn't want to see that anyway."

"And if they win," he'd say about playoff elimination games, "then there will be another one to watch."

It clicked for me. When the Pistons were playing the Heat in the 2006 Eastern Conference Finals, I didn't have a problem going to the Tigers game the night of Game 6 — with Miami up 3-2 — and listening on my walkman (yes, walkman!). Even though 'Sheed and the boys stunk it up and were eliminated, at least I got to take in a competitive Tigers game (albeit, a 3-2 L to the Red Sox). 

I could live with missing the Pistons' final game of the year. In fact, I was happy I didn't see the 95-78 beatdown. It made the end of a season sting less. 

And so for the past several years — especially as I became a sports journalist and my subjectivity turned to objectivity — I've gotten excited about my hometown Wolverines' and the Tigers' best teams, but never to a point of being extremely disappointed with a loss, never to a point where I've said, "I can't miss a game."

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Enter Michigan basketball. Enter this 2012-13 season.

But let me rewind first. Let me explain why Michigan basketball means more to me than any other team. 

The Michigan basketball program was given up on. It became an afterthought. By the year 2000, a program that won a national championship just 11 years prior and made back-to-back championship game appearances a mere seven years before was in the dumps and in the midst of paying heavily for sanctions levied upon it by the NCAA for payments from a booster to a cadre of super talents from the Detroit area.

You know the story. That's not what this is about.

This is about latching onto a team, and a program, and watching it be built back up slowly and wobbly. 

Each year, I paid a little more attention. First there was the Tommy Amaker era, during which he cleaned up the program, stopped the recruitment of poor-character kids (that was mostly a Brian Ellerbe thing), and got the Wolverines on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament a few times. 

On March 3, 2007, during spring break of my senior year at Albion College, I sat at home in Ann Arbor and watched agonizingly as the Wolverines blew a six-point lead with 4 minutes remaining against No. 1 Ohio State in a game that would have sent them to the NCAA Tournament. 

Instead, they missed the Dance for the ninth consecutive year, the team's four seniors finished their careers without a tournament game, and Amaker — after six years — was given the axe.

Coming so close only made me yearn even more for the team to reach the tournament. There's something incredible about failure that can tighten one's attachment to a team (just ask Cleveland fans).

But even more than that, I took satisfaction in being part of a small group of loyalists. Through the Amaker years and then, through the early years of the John Beilein era (really, until the last two years), Michigan basketball remained an afterthought and Crisler Arena a library. 

In Ann Arbor, the talk was "football, football, football, Zingerman's, football" — all while Beilein slowly built from a weak foundation (his first team was 10-22).

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Which brings me back to the present. Or to last night. 

As I sat in my seat at Verizon Center staring at my phone and only occasionally glancing at the spectacle in front of me, I didn't just hate that the Wolverines were blowing a 15-point lead in the final 10 minutes, 39 seconds against an 0-14 Big Ten team when the conference championship was on the line.

I hated that I was missing the game. 

Yes, I couldn't stand the fact that I wasn't seated in front of a TV watching Michigan's defense surrender 33 points in the final 10 minutes against the Big Ten's worst offense. 

As I thought about this — and as Penn State eventually claimed the lead and the game — I came to a realization:

For the first time since I can remember, I'm living vicariously through a team. As sad as this sounds for a 29-year-old, the Michigan basketball team has the ability to dictate my mood on a given night or afternoon. 

I have no recollection of another team — not Michigan football, not even the Pistons, although that Robert Horry 3 in the 2005 Finals was devastating — having this effect on me, especially since I became a journalist. 

I still view the team through an objective lens. I'm no 'homer.' So, no, I'm not sore about the officiating last night and, no, the loss wasn't solely a Michigan collapse. From what I've read and seen, Penn State played its best game of the season.

But that didn't improve my mood. And neither did a Pistons victory over the Wizards.

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Because of my attachment to this team, to this program, I hate missing a minute of a game. I selfishly want to take it all in, want to absorb every moment of Trey Burke greatness,  analyze every hard hedge by Jordan Morgan, and listen to every Bacari Alexander pregame pep talk.

That's why following the debacle in State College through texts and Twitter wasn't sufficient — 140 characters at a time couldn't explain for me why Penn State was making every shot and Michigan suffered its longest offensive dry spell of the season. 

By the fourth quarter of the NBA game, the college game was in the books. This left me pondering for 40 minutes what had gone wrong. If I had seen the game, at least I could have replayed in my head those key plays that changed the momentum, those close charge-block calls, Michigan's offensive executive down the stretch. Numbers did me no justice. 

"Serves me right for missing the game..." I lamely wrote on Facebook. 

When the Pistons survived a furious last-minute Trevor Ariza rally, I was happy that at least one home team got a W on the night. But there was no comparison, and it had nothing to do with Michigan playing for a lot more. I'm simply much more attached to the Wolverines. And just the Wolverines. 

Every other hometown team I enjoy rooting for and following, especially during playoff time. But the only sports team I live vicariously through is Michigan basketball.

And that makes evenings like Wednesday difficult to stomach. 

(Final) Four tournament concerns for the Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan basketball team's main goal, right now, is to win the regular-season Big Ten championship — and, within that, to focus solely on the one game ahead of them. This, of course, is with good reason. Sleepwalk into a game in the country's toughest league this year, you might not survive it. That's how brutal this league is.

But come mid-March, once the Wolverines have taken on Indiana in their regular-season finale — and once, quite possibly, they've celebrated a second consecutive title — the focus will shift to the tournaments.

First, the Big Ten version. Then, the Big Dance.

And, ultimately, even though it's unfair — even though Michigan might win 30 games and a conference championship — the Wolverines' season will mostly be judged by fans, the national media, and haters on their NCAA Tournament run (or lack thereof).

Which brings me to the point of this column. Michigan stands at 21-2 overall and 8-2 in the league with eight games remaining. That gives coach John Beilein and his staff ample time to work out these main issues that could end up blocking the Wolverines' return, gasp, to the school's first Final Four since, well, the stricken-from-the-record-books Fab Five trips:

1. Freshmen Fatigue: Anyone who watched the Wolverines escape against Ohio State last night noticed a somewhat slow, not-always-alert Glenn Robinson III. Simply put, the freshman is tired! The 6-foot-6, 210-pound frosh is playing undsersized at the power forward position, having to battle the likes of DeShaun Thomas (6-7, 225) and bigger guys night in and night out. He's averaging 36.1 minutes per game — tied for the team lead with Trey Burke — during league play. Nick Stauskas is also averaging 33.5 minutes per game, although not taking as much of a beating. Robinson will be close to useless come mid-March — and Stauskas' shots will likely start falling short — unless Beilein and his staff begin monitoring his minutes and going to more two-post lineups. Speaking of:

2. Jordan Morgan's ankle: The redshirt junior and the rock of the Wolverines' interior defense and rebounding has played a mere 6 minutes the last two games since going down against Illinois. Beilein hasn't said much about his ankle, but Morgan clearly is still laboring. Michigan needs Morgan back to playing 20-30 minutes a game so that A) Robinson can get some rest, as well as Mitch McGary, who played a season-high 29 minutes against the Buckeyes; and B) The Wolverines sure up their defensive rebounding. McGary is playing better and better with each game, but the freshman overcommits on drives, often leaving weakside offensive rebounding opportunities aplenty (think Zeller, Cody). Michigan needs Morgan for March, so Beilein can rotate in and out the three-headed Morgan/McGary/Jon Horford monster while using Robinson primarily when he's fresh and has a good matchup. Michigan likely won't tinker much with a two-post lineup until Morgan is healthy.

3. Trey Burke overdribbling: Burke was better this time around against the ball-hawking Aaron Craft, but there was still that last possession of regulation. Beilein said afterward that he wanted Burke to set up a screen-and-roll with Robinson to get a favorable matchup "but we settled there a little bit." Burke knows he's really good. He also knows — as much as he loves his teammates — that he'll be in the NBA next season where one-on-one play is king. Because, possibly, of this knowledge, he can get into a bad habit — especially against great defenders like Craft — of overdribbling outside the 3-point line instead of running the offense. This makes his teammates stagnant and Michigan one-dimensional. It often results in Burke taking a fadeaway jumper, a shot he has hit on numerous occasions but not at a high percentage. Michigan needs the Burke that realizes how good his teammates are, feeds the ball to the wings — letting Tim Hardaway Jr. catch fire like he did in the second half last night — and doesn't settle. Will Burke, the national player of the year frontrunner, be fully aware in March of what's best for the team?

4. Defense: You couldn't watch the second half last night and not be concerned about the Wolverines' defense. Ohio State played well, but Michigan helped the Buckeyes looks like a much more efficient offensive machine than they've been all season. Ohio State scored a near-perfect 1.46 points per possession in the final 20 minutes before overtime. Michigan, as Beilein admitted afterward, was slow on defensive assignments, completely missed other assignments, and didn't grab rebounds when needed. And this was against a middle-of-the-road offensive team. A disciplined, very good shooting team (think Butler) would shred what the Wolverines are presenting on that end of the court right now. Thankfully, defense is an area that just needs coaching. Yes, Stauskas is slow on the perimeter. But so was Stu Douglass, who learned how to position himself to succeed. Michigan can — and needs to — get better, much better, at defense. If the Wolverines don't improve, they'll likely fall short of their March goals. 

Novak Djokovic: A lesson in becoming the best in the world

I remember watching Novak Djokovic, or 'Nole,' for the first time in 2007. The young Serbian, all of 20 years old, was confident and let people know about it. 

He unleashed Tiger Woods fist pumps after, it seemed, every winner he hit. He yelled at himself and gesticulated toward his box after every shot he dumped into the net. 

He had all the talent in the world — that wasn't hard to see — but his mind wasn't calibrated to win championships, to defeat the rock-solid Roger Federer in his prime. 

So even as I watched Djokovic exchange forehand for forehand and big serve for big serve against Federer in the 2007 U.S. Open final, the outcome was inevitable. 

Roger Federer def. Novak Djokovic 7-6 (4), 7-6 (2), 6-4.

Fast forward five years and four months. 

Djokovic was having similar issues. He had outplayed Andy Murray for most of the Australian Open championship's first set, but had failed to capitalize on any of five break point opportunities. In the tiebreak, he had fallen apart. First, he had double-faulted. Then came four unforced errors, yelling at himself, and, very quickly, a lost set. 

The break between sets hadn't helped. On serve down 0-1 in the second, Djokovic now faced three break points, the match seemingly, already, hanging in the balance. But this moment showed just how much he's matured, how he's learned to become a multiple-time grand slam champion against the world's best.

Djokovic outlasted Murray during the ensuing rallies to stave off the points, got a huge forehand winner down the line for the advantage, and then claimed the crucial game.

He would only face one more break point the entire 3-hour, 40-minute match — and save that one too.

By the fourth set, Djokovic was cruising, moving around the court like a gazelle, barely breathing as the more-than-game Scot labored from a bloody blister and what appeared to be an aching backside. This also spoke to how far Djokovic has come as a big-match player. He got better as the night wore on. His serves became bigger; his ground strokes crisper; and he played incredibly efficient at the net — not a talked-about strength of his — where he converted 35 of 41 points.

Novak Djokovic def. Andy Murry 6-7 (2), 7-6 (3), 6-3, 6-2.

Let me introduce you to Novak Djokovic:

Six-time grand slam winner.

Four-time Australia Open winner, including an Open-era record three in a row.

The undisputed world No. 1.

Even when Djokovic won his first Aussie Open in 2008, he was young and immature. He didn't gain a lot of friends on tour by making a habit of performing crowd-pleasing  imitations of other players. He was playful but also acerbic, incredibly talented and hard-working, but raw. 

For three years, Djokovic remained stuck in the world's No. 3 slot, not that there was anything wrong with that. He was behind two of the greatest who have ever played the game — Federer and Rafael Nadal. Still, he gained a not-good reputation of retiring from matches. He advanced deep in many tournaments, but couldn't finish them. He failed to advance past the quarterfinals of any of the 2009 majors before losing to Federer in the semis at the U.S. Open in a match similar to their '07 meeting.

Djokovic's 2010 season wasn't all that different from '09 — at least at the grand slams — until his epic, unleash-the-forehand-on-match-point win over Federer in the semifinal rematch at the U.S. Open. Until that match, you still couldn't put the Serbian on the same level as the Great Two. But then he won that match. Then he gained a real swagger, a real belief.

And, well, Djokovic's 2011 season was, as 14-time major champion Pete Sampras said, "One of the best achievements in all of sports."

Since that epic, three-major-winning year, Djokovic has had to share victories with his Big Four companions. After all, Nadal, when healthy, still owns the French; Federer, ever the stubborn champion, refuses to take his 17 majors, two kids and wife and build himself a white picket fence; and Murray, born a week before Djokovic, is as tough of an opponent as ever after getting that first-grand-slam monkey off his back at September's U.S. Open.

But the least amount of question marks surround Djokovic and his half dozen majors. He's still young at 25 unlike Federer, 31; he's healthy unlike Nadal, who's been sidelined since last June with his knee injury; and Murray, while playing very impressive of late, still has shown the ability to win a major just once. 

After that '08 title, during the drought years of '09 and '10, the question was asked about Djokovic: Was he just a one-hit wonder? Now, of course, that seems silly but will be asked about Murray until he wins more titles. Which will likely mean going through the man who outlasted him Sunday night in Melbourne. 

Djokovic's antics can still seem a bit outrageous on center court. After outlasting Stan Wawrinka in a memorable five-set match earlier in the tournament, he tore off his shirt in celebration. 

But the key difference is when that behavior is on display — after he's won another match.

As for the matches themselves, Djokovic is focused, honed in, and as rock-solid a No. 1 player in the world as you can have.

Meet Sloane Stephens, the next great American hope?

This Tuesday, some 10,000 miles away from this country in Melbourne, Australia (where it will be Wednesday), the current queen of women’s tennis will meet the next great American hope.

Many Americans probably won’t see the match between Serena Williams and Sloane Stephens. It will likely occur late at night — or early in the morning — here in the States.

Heck, many Americans probably don’t know about Stephens (I’ll admit it; I wasn’t aware of the 19-year-old until this tournament).

If they follow tennis, they will soon.

Stephens will not beat Williams in this Australian Open matchup, her first quarterfinal at a Grand Slam tournament. It won’t happen. Not against arguably the greatest women’s player of ALL TIME. Not against a 31-year-old Williams who has only dropped a single match since last May’s French Open. Not against a player so dominant that she won singles and doubles titles at Wimbledon, Olympic Gold in singles and doubles, and the U.S. Open — all in two months.

No, Serena Williams is too dominant, too powerful, too everything.

But make no mistake about it — when it comes to U.S. women’s tennis, Sloane Stephens has got next.

And that next isn’t far off.

This blog is about the precocious youngster with the huge forehand and bubbly personality (descriptions, coincidentally, that you could apply to a certain American player also mentioned in this post).

Let me first provide a paragraph on where the Plantation, Fla., native stands today:

Stephens, at No. 25, is the lone teenager in the Women’s Tennis Association’s top 50. After her three-set Round of 16 victory over Bojana Jovanovski, she’s guaranteed a spot in the top 20. And she’s also the second-highest ranked American behind you know who.

Only one American not named a Williams has reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal in the past handful of years. That was Melanie Oudin at the 2009 U.S. Open. How’s Oudin faring now? She’s ranked 84th and hasn’t advanced past the second round of a major since.

So why am I so high on Stephens? What’s to say she won’t become another Oudin?

Because of the similarities to Williams, that’s why. Yes, it’s a convenient comparison. The young, black, strong American player with an energetic, full-of-life personality.

But if you watch Stephens on the court, you can see it, too, even if her development is far from complete. I saw it in the final, tense moments of her 6-1, 3-6, 7-5 victory over Jovanovski.

The 21-year-old Serb took over the match in the second set, grunting and outmuscling Stephens, who became passive and stuck on the baseline. After Stephens dumped a forehand into the net to get broken and fall behind 0-2 in the final set, it would have been easy to dismiss the, yes, 19-year-old. The pressure, it could be said, was getting to her.

But down 1-3, Stephens found a switch that you wouldn’t expect such a young player to possess, suddenly unleashing a barrage of laser forehands to win eight straight points and knot the set at 3-3. With the set tied at 5-5 and Jovanovski serving at 0-15, Stephens again pounded an impeccable, impossible-to-return forehand down the line that, seemingly, rattled the resilient Serb.

She broke a minute later, 6-5.

In the final game, Stephens appeared on her heels as she served down 15-30. Jovanovski was pounding forehands left and right. But in an example of her versatility — of her burgeoning ability to win points in different fashions — Stephens showed Novak Djokovic-like defense and outlasted Jovanovski to tie the game.

A minute later, Stephens was breathing a sigh of relief as she gave her post-match interview — her date with Williams secured.

"I'm sure my mother's had like four heart attacks," Stephens joked of the match. "I hope my Grandpa didn't have to put my Grandma to bed, because she gets a little worried."

All kidding aside, Stephens has a chance to be great because not only does she have the physical ability, but she has the right personality, too, to succeed on tour — to slug out the tough matches. She’s already mature beyond her years.

Stephens conceded that Jovanovski’s play had her out of rhythm, but she added that “sometimes you just kind of got to stick it out, and hopefully she comes down off her throne."

That’s veteran talk, not 19-year-old talk.

Stephens doesn’t lose her cool on the court, but she also knows when she needs an emotional boost. After breaking Jovanovski to get to 1-2, Stephens allowed herself a few mini fistpumps and “Come on!”s. She is far from stoic on the court.

OK, reality check time. Did I mention that Stephens will not beat Williams tomorrow? She met the 15-time Grand Slam winner in a Brisbane exhibition earlier this month and put up a fight, falling 6-4, 6-3. As all-time great and current ESPN analyst Chris Evert said, “Once they get into a rally … I think she can stay with her.”

Of course, that statement came after Evert talked about Williams’ dominant serve, which is the biggest advantage — besides experience — she has on Stephens. In her dominant 6-2, 6-0 dispatching of Maria Kirilenko, Williams had a first-serve percentage of 95 percent in the first set. That’s unbeatable. That’s a reason Williams has won 20 consecutive matches.

So there’s a reason I’m writing this before the match. The action on the court could look ugly for Stephens. Her nerves could play a factor. Mostly, her opponent will.

Rather, this writing should serve — pun intended — as a sign of what American tennis fans can hope for, and anticipate, going forward as Williams’ historic career winds down.

The women’s game, as we’ve witnessed over the last handful of years, is wide open when Williams isn’t playing. It’s a crapshoot. Maria Sharapova, 25, has overcome injury and reemerged as one of the sport’s premier players — having won the career grand slam and playing her best tennis. Victoria Azarenka, 23, won this tournament a year ago and took Williams to the brink of defeat at the U.S. Open in September. But neither player is as dominant as Williams. Neither player will dominate the tour like Williams has or be an indomitable roadblock in front of Stephens like Roger Federer was for Andy Roddick during the American’s best years.

The next great American hope is in the process of arriving, sports fans.

And she’s a joy to watch.

For Wolverines, only real weakness is lack of leadership and experience

He didn't say it publicly on Twitter, but Zach Novak must have been going crazy during the first half of Michigan's game against Ohio State Sunday.

The former Wolverine and current professional player in the Netherlands was probably thinking the same thing as many Michigan fans as his alma mater and No. 2 team in the country committed turnover after turnover — looking completely discombobulated and out of sorts as the 15th-ranked Buckeyes raced out to a 29-8 lead Sunday in Columbus.

He probably also wished he could be on the court and in the Michigan huddle.

The Wolverines (16-1) sure could have used his leadership.

And therein lies the only glaring weakness for this talent-rich team that came one Sunday afternoon win — and one in-and-out 3-pointer — away from grabbing the No. 1 ranking in the country, falling instead to an experienced Ohio State squad, 56-53.

Zero.

That's the number of minutes played by Michigan seniors Sunday.

Ninety-nine.

That's how many minutes Michigan freshmen logged.

It didn't help that the Wolverines' best player — and national player of the year candidate — Trey Burke clearly did what he said he wouldn't, making the game in his hometown personal. Burke, who over the previous 10 games dished out 82 assists to 10 turnovers (absurdly good), forced shots and drives all day. The sophomore has been anointed Michigan's leader, and rightfully so considering the level he was playing at entering Sunday.

His leadership against the Buckeyes won't be featured in any books or seminars, that's for sure.

At this stage in the season, the Wolverines — even as supremely talented as they are — face two challenges:

1. Who will step into the role Novak — and to a lesser extent, Stu Douglass — excelled in last year, providing invaluable leadership in team huddles, keeping the team calm in hostile road environments?

2. Will the Big Ten's youngest team learn from this experience and be ready for the difficult environments the brutal conference schedule will present? Or will their youth continue to show?

I predicted before the season that the Wolverines would go undefeated in the nonconference portion of the schedule and 13-5 in the Big Ten. I stand by my prognostication. Winning on the road in this league is no easy thing; there's a reason the Vegas oddsmakers had the Buckeyes, with three losses, favored by a point and a half over the undefeated Wolverines.

The answer to the first question, though, is a bit of a mystery. Burke has worked on becoming more vocal — if not as in-your-face as the spirited Novak — and Hardaway has improved in this area, too.

I tend to think Sunday was an aberration for Burke, who lets his emotions get the best of him playing in Columbus. There won't be many more games where his turnovers equal his made field goals.

I also don't think we'll see a 15-minute stretch as ugly as the opening of this game, when the Wolverines were clearly rattled by the Buckeyes' perimeter-pressuring defense. Eight turnovers in the first 10 minutes and not reaching double figures until the 6-minute mark of the opening period are not part of the recipe for road success in the country's toughest league.

Freshman Glenn Robinson looked out of sorts early. Freshman Caris Lavert made a horrible pass that led to an Ohio State dunk. Even more surprisingly, Hardaway Jr. was indecisive, getting caught up in the air a few times instead of making strong moves to the basket like he had done all season.

And yet Michigan came thisclose to stealing a game in which it often looked lost. Much of the Wolverines' second-half performance showed why John Beilein and his staff are so good at their jobs. Gone were the layups the Buckeyes got during the first half when the over-eager Wolverines overplayed their men on the perimeter.

Ohio State scored just 22 second-half points on 31 possessions. That's rock-solid defense.

But after the Wolverines tied the game at 46 with 6 minutes remaining, they got 3 happy — attempting eight shots from beyond the arc as opposed to just a pair of twos down the stretch. And while Burke's final attempt wasn't a bad shot — in crunch time, you want your POY candidate launching the potential game-winner — the possessions that preceded the shot are what ultimately doomed the nation's last undefeated team.

Chalk up the lack of ball movement, the paucity of sharing the ball — something the Wolverines had done so well all season — to lack of experience and leadership, the qualities any squad regardless of talent needs to win against a good team on the road.

We won't have to wait long to see how Michigan learns from Sunday's experience. When they travel to Minnesota Thursday night, they'll be playing in a more hostile environment (The Barn) against an even better and much more explosive Gophers team.

This is just the beginning of a long grind for this young, talented team. And there will be more losses. Of that, I'm positive.

But if the Wolverines receive improved leadership from their older — but still young — players and learn from days like Sunday, they'll be in great position come early March to make this a very special season.