Picking the 2015 NCAA Tournament — stay chalky!

First off, let me say this. Life is busy. Doing the AU Hoops Podcast every week, plus my regular job, plus dogsitting has kept me from doing a lot of research for this. So there's that.

Take my advice with caution.

But I have watched a fair amount of hoops since November. Really, a ton (as my friend Sam Healy of the podcast would now pipe in, "In other news, Jake is still single." Yes, it true. Prospects who are willing to put up with a basketball nerd? Send 'em my way). And here's my main takeaway from the first five months of this college basketball season.

The top teams are pretty darn good.

The top seven teams — including unbeaten Kentucky — all have four or fewer losses entering the Dance, and Duke is the lone squad with four. I went all the way back to the 2007-08 season — the year when, if you remember, for the first time ever, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four — and even that season only had six four-losses-or-fewer teams entering the tournament.

My point: This is a rare really good year for the teams at the top.

Does that mean upsets won't happen? Of course not. Maybe, in fact, these teams are due to lose. But my money — and believe me, I'm betting a little — is on those at the top mostly holding serve (sorry, I miss tennis) until the later rounds.

Having given my manifesto, here are the picks. As always, I am not liable for any ills that shall befall you as a result of listening to any (or all) of my choices.

MIDWEST
Round of 64
1 Kentucky def. 16 Hampton: C'mon, man.
9 Purdue def. 8 Cincy: If there's one first-round game not to watch, this might be it. I'd be surprised if the score leaves the 50s.
5 WVU def. 12 Buffalo: Injury update — Juwan Staten and Gary Browne will be back for the Mountaineers. That's not good news for Bobby Hurley.
4 Maryland def. 13 Valpo: If there's a dude who wants to win more than Dez Wells, show me him.
6 Butler def. 11 Texas. I LOVE BUTLER. After visiting Hinkle Fieldhouse this December, there's no way I can't pick the Bulldogs.
3 Notre Dame def. 14 Northeastern: Did you see what the Irish did to Duke and North Carolina?
7 Wichita State def. 10 Indiana: Fred. Van. Vleet (actually, it's VanVleet, but I needed the dramatic effect). Not sure there's a point guard I trust more in the country.
2 Kansas def. 15 New Mexico State: Wait ... the WAC still exists?

Round of 32
1 Kentucky def. 9 Purdue: C'mon, man.
5 WVU def. 4 Maryland: The Terps were, according to KenPom (if you don't know KenPom, you're outdated .. sorry), the second luckiest team in the country during the season. That runs out against the Mountaineers.
3 Notre Dame def. 6 Butler: In a classic Indiana battle, Jerian Grant is the difference for the Irish.
7 Wichita State def. 2 Kansas: These schools are separated by 161 miles. They haven't played since 1993. According to KU, it's not best for their program. WSU will play with a chip on their shoulder and win the rivalry (can it even be called that?) game.

Sweet 16
1 Kentucky def. 5 WVU: C'mon, man.
3 Notre Dame def. 7 Wichita State: For one, the game is in Cleveland. More importantly, the Irish have more offensive weapons (fun sports word!) and can beat a fast-breaking team like WSU (see: UNC).

Elite 8
1 Kentucky def. 3 Notre Dame: C'mon man. No analysis needed. Yet.

WEST
Round of 64
1 Wisconsin def. 16 Coastal Carolina: Last year the Chanticleers, a 16 seed, took an early 10-point lead  against UVA before losing by 11. It'll be uglier vs. the Badgers.
8 Oregon def. 9 Oklahoma State: Someone remind me why the Cowboys (18-13 and having lost six of their last seven) are a nine, let alone in the tourney? The 25-9 Ducks will get rid of 'em.
5 Arkansas def. 12 Wofford: Yep, this is a popular upset pick, so I'm going in the oppo direction. Remember that "luck" statistic? No team has had more of it than Wofford. It runs out Thursday.
4 North Carolina def. 13 Harvard: The Crimson are somehow here (I still can't believe Yale isn't) for the fourth straight year and gunning for their third consecutive Big Dance upset. Nope. Not against this super talented UNC squad.
11 Mississippi def. 6 Xavier: Did you see Ole Miss overcome a 17-point deficit against BYU Tuesday night? That was an offensive EXPLOSION. Why not again?
3 Baylor def. 14 Georgia State: Georgia State is a fun story (the coach with the Achilles torn in the ugly title game celebration; the coach's son; the transfer with the horrific injury in his past, Kevin Ware). Baylor is just better at basketball.
10 Ohio State def. 7 VCU: Flip a coin. That's who'll win this game.
2 Arizona def. 15 Texas Southern: This will be A LOT closer than you might think. Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis (formerly of IU) and beat Michigan State on the road in December — a game I watched on my laptop (in other news, I'm still single).

Round of 32
1 Wisconsin def. 8 Oregon: A rematch of last year's game in the same round, which was ridiculously good. This one will be similarly decent for about 30 minutes, but the improved Badgers will pull away.
4 North Carolina def. 5 Arkansas: Two teams that like to run. One team that can also throw it down low to about four different options.
3 Baylor def. 11 Mississippi: Rico Gathers (son of the late Hank Gathers) is a FORCE down low, with 116 more boards than any other Big 12 player. He'll torture the Rebels.
2 Arizona def. 10 Ohio State: First off, I flipped a coin to pick OSU. Secondly, Arizona is really, really good.

Sweet 16
1 Wisconsin def. 4 North Carolina. Wow, this is tough. Here's the thing: North Carolina might actually have a little bit more talent, but the Tar Heels are sporadic. The Badgers' performances are less likely to vary, and having the national POY, Frank the Tank, helps.
2 Arizona def. 3 Baylor: Gathers is neutralized by 7-footer Tarczewski and 6-9 Ashley down low, and 'Zona controls the tempo. How's that for analysis?

Elite 8
2 Arizona def. 1 Wisconsin: I've liked the 'Cats since November, and there's no turning back. It's a rematch of last year's Elite Eight, and this time 'Zona has just enough to win a tight one.

EAST
Round of 64
1 Villanova def. 16 Lafayette: Have you listened to the AU Hoops Podcast? Subscribe on iTunes and you'll know more than you could ever imagine about Lafayette and the league it plays in! Of course, the Leopards will also lose to Nova.
8 N.C. State def. 9 LSU: I must admit, I have a soft spot for the Wolfpack. I have a friend, Amy, who went to N.C. State, and I always want them to do well. Plus, they've got a dude named Cat Barber. What a name!
4 Louisville def. 13 UC Irvine: A) I don't like Louisville and I don't particularly want to see it succeed; 2) UC Irvine has the best nickname (Anteaters!) and is also playing in its first Big Dance. Sad truth: L'ville will win by a lot.
5 Northern Iowa def. 12 Wyoming: While we're doing the fact thing, Northern Iowa is 30-3 and has one of the country's best players, Seth Tuttle. Don't make this your annual 12-5 upset.
6 Providence def. 11 Dayton/Boise State: Confession — I'm watching the play-in game right now, and the team I thought could beat Providence (Dayton) is getting crushed (err, now just beaten). If this changes, I might change this pick. Continue...
3 Oklahoma def. 14 Albany: I still can't believe how Albany made the Dance and crushed the hearts of Stony Brook fans far and wide. The Great Danes are sent back to reality by the Sooners.
7 Michigan State. def. 10 Georgia: Tom Izzo. Michigan State. March. Enough said.
2 UVA def. 15 Belmont: I'll say this ... the game could be close. If there's a team out there that can shoot lights out over the Cavaliers' pack line D, it's the Bruins. Did you see how they beat Murray State to get here? Goodness. This could be fun if they get hot. Or ugly if they don't.

Round of 32
1 Villanova def. 8 N.C. State: 'Nova is the least-talked-about really good team in the field. They'll be talked about after whooping the Wolfpack.
5 Northern Iowa def. 4 Louisville: To be honest, this game is impossible to pick. The Cardinals are a team that can beat anyone or self-destruct in any game. I'm picking self-destruction against the disciplined Panthers.
3 Oklahoma def. 6 Providence: Conference POY Buddy Hield leads the Sooners over Cooley & the Gang.
7 Michigan State def. 2 UVA: Hard, hard pick. UVA is really good. But goodness, the Spartans are on a roll. Maybe I'm a biased Midwesterner, but I can't pick against them (even as a UM guy).

Sweet 16
1 Villanova def. 5 Northern Iowa: This will be a great battle of outside shooting, plus Tuttle going up against Daniel Ochefu and company down low. In the end, the 'Cats have more scorers.
7 Michigan State def. 3 Oklahoma: C'mon, there' no way I'd not pick the Spartans to build on the momentum of taking down one of the nation's top three teams for most of the season.

Elite 8
1 Villanova def. 7 Michigan State: Shooting, shooting, shooting. The Wildcats do it better than just about anyone. Here's a stat for ya: In their last eight games playing in the nation's third toughest conference, the Wildcats scored 1.28 ppp. That's insane! They'll have enough to outscore Sparty.

SOUTH
Round of 64
1 Duke def. 16 Robert Morris: Was there a team that needed a 1 seed more than Duke? The difference is huge. No 1 seeds, of course, have never lost. And the Blue Devils have lost as a 2 twice in four seasons.
8 SDSU def. 9 St. John's: A) The Storm just suspended one of their top dudes the day of the Selection Show!; B) This has to happen so Steve Fisher can play the Devils, and we can watch EVEN MORE Fab Five footage.
12 Stephen F. Austin def. 5 Utah: Simply put, there has to be a 12-5 upset. So this is it.
13 Eastern Washington def. 4 Georgetown: The Hoyas, overseeded to begin with, have this issue with getting upset in the Dance. It becomes mental and the nation's leading scorer, Tyler Harvey, makes it reality for the Eagles.
6 SMU def. 11 UCLA: For the record, the Bruins will likely play very well. That's usually what happens for teams that everyone says don't belong (see: VCU, 2011). Still, LB's Mustangs are built-Ford tough. There's no other way they win that AAC title game at a UConn team Sunday that needed the W to make the Dance. Tough.
3 Iowa State def. 14 UAB: The Blazers pulling off a run to make the Dance after the school cut their football program is a nice story. It'll be ended abruptly by a bunch of Cyclones.
10 Davidson def. 7 Iowa. As us Big Ten followers noted throughout January and February, there's "Good Iowa" and "Bad Iowa." On the other hand, Davidson won the A-10 and is never out of a game because of shooting. That's enough for me. Plus, Adam Woodbury is a jerk.
2 Gonzaga def. 15 North Dakota State: There'll be no repeat magic for the Bison, one of last year's first-round darlings. These Zags are good and might finally be ready to take a Gonzaga team further than expectations beginning here.

Round of 32
1 Duke def. 8 SDSU: Duke beats Steve Fisher again. Sad face.
13 Eastern Washington def. 12 Stephen F. Austin: The nation's leading scorer and the sixth-best-scoring team in the country advance! College hoops needs more points; it needs more Eastern Washington!
3 Iowa State. def. 6 SMU: This'll come down to a battle of the point guards, and 6-2 Monte Morris will outplay hot-shooting 5-9 Nic Moore. How's that for analysis at 11:05pm on a Wednesday!?
2 Gonzaga def. 10 Davidson: First of, one of these darn "Wildcats" needs to be knocked off. Secondly, the Bulldogs are pretty darn good and extremely balanced.

Sweet 16
1 Duke def. 13 Eastern Washington: Ah, the dream has to end somewhere, and Houston will be that place. Duke's freshman-senior guard combo (Jones and Cook) will lead the way, and Okafor will feast on a team whose starters aren't taller than 6-8.
3 Iowa State def. 2 Gonzaga: Hey, well at least this will be the Zags' first Sweet 16 trip since 2009. This will also be a great game, but the Zags will struggle defending the versatility of 6-8 Georges Niang.

Elite 8
3 Iowa State def. 1 Duke: In The Mayor I trust. Fred Hoiberg has one helluva team led by a point guard that doesn't turn it over, the previously mentioned Niang, a lights-out shooter in Naz Long, and Mr. Tough in Dustin Hogue. Throw in the fact that the Cyclones are as good as they get at coming back in a game, and I'll ride 'em into Indianapolis.

FINAL FOUR
Kentucky def. Arizona, 67-59: OK, you want analysis? These Wildcats are better than those Wildcats. Arizona has two really good bigs; Kentucky has four or five. Arizona has one very good point guard; Kentucky has two with contrasting styles. Kentucky's sharpshooter is better than Arizona's. Don't get me wrong, this'll be a good game. But, simply, the Wildcats (these Wildcats) are better.

Villanova def. Iowa State, 78-75: Points, points, points! Who said the college game has a scoring problem? It won't be evident in this shootout. The Wildcats have five guys who average at least one made 3 per game, and the triples won't stop falling against a Cyclones team that has allowed opponents to shoot 35 percent from deep (231st best in the country).

NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky def. Villanova, 71-65: As I said early many times, c'mon man. You can't as an outsider realistically say that when evaluating the facts, you think Kentucky will lose. You simply can't. The Wildcats are not only the most talented team in the country, the team with the best record, and the team with the most depth ... they also are incredibly unselfish, they have won close games, they have played from behind, and they have won in different ways.

Would I like to see a different result? More madness? More unpredictability? Absolutely — that's part of the beauty of March. But as I said at the beginning, this is the year of chalk, sports fans, and no team epitomizes that more than Kentucky.

These Wildcats.

As always, enjoy the madness (or, if it's lacking, simply the basketball).

Projecting the field of 68 — in 23 minutes

Life has been hectic lately, folks. 

Between three jobs, trying to do a little hiking, and being sick, I haven't written in this space since the Democrats had the Senate, no comet had been landed on, no World Cup had been played, no summer had been enjoyed ... and so on.

And now I have just 23 minutes until my man Crespo comes over for the American University (they'll be a 15 seed) opener. 

So with the season beginning, here is my rapid-fire, no-research annual Field of 68.

Automatic qualifiers (32)

America East: Stony Brook

American: Memphis

Atlantic 10: VCU

ACC: UNC

Atlantic Sun: FGCU

Big 12: Kansas

Big East: Villanova

Big Sky: Eastern Washington

Big South: High Point

Big Ten: Wisconsin

Big West: Cal State Northridge

Colonial: Delaware

Conference USA: UTEP

Horizon: Cleveland State

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Siena

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Hampton

Missouri Valley: Wichita State

Mountain West: San Diego State

Northeast: Robert Morris

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Pac-12: Arizona

Patriot: American

SEC: Kentucky

Southern: Wofford

Southland: Lamar

SWAC: Alabama State

Summit: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt: Georgia State

West Goast: Gonzaga

WAC: New Mexico State

At-large (36)

American: Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU (3)

A-10: Dayton, GW, Richmond (3)

ACC: Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia (6)

Big 12: ISU, Oklahoma, Texas (3)

Big East: Georgetown, Providence, Xavier (3)

Big Ten: OSU, MSU, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska (6)

Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (1)

Mountain West: Colorado State, New Mexico, Boise (3)

Pac-12: UCLA, Utah, Washington, Stanford (4)

SEC: Florida, Georgia, LSU (3)

West Coast: BYU (1)

And there you have it. Let's get this season started.

My NCAA Tournament bracket: Wichita State will go 40-0

Well, it's the evening before the beginning of my absolute favorite few weeks of the year — starting with the most exhausting and exhilarating four days of basketball watching a nut job like myself experiences annually (four days, about 48 hours of watching; my eyes will get a workout).

But before the games begin — Note: I'm sorry, folks, but no First Four picks this year; life got in the way the past two days — it's time for my picks. Note: Proceed with caution in copying any of them to your bracket. Just because I watch a ton of basketball in no way makes me an expert (you'd probably be better off going the mascots, colors, or state capitals route).

Before I dive in, a few notes on things I look for when picking games:
1) First off, there is no perfect formula for winning in March. Every year, some writer or magazine or ESPN talking head tries to say that there is, but the results prove that isn't the case.
2) Picking a team that relies on 3s is dangerous (but can also pay off!).
3) Generally a team with a guy who scores a large percentage of its points won't go far (exception: Kemba Walker, UConn, 2011).
4) Experience does matter. Even the Kentucky team that won in 2012 had contributing upperclassmen. This year's Wildcats team doesn't.
5) And finally, don't lose sleep over picking teams that are "hot" or not. The argument works both ways. A few years ago, Syracuse had a brilliant Big East tournament run and then was bounced in the first round of the Dance. Contrast that with Walker leading the Huskies to the Big East championship followed by six more wins in the Big Dance.

OK, enough of my diatribe. Without further ado, here are my round-by-round picks:

EAST
FIRST ROUND (sorry, NCAA, I'm not calling it second round)
(1) Virginia def. (16) Coastal Carolina: A 16 has never beaten a 1. Period.
(8) Memphis def. (9) George Washington: I just flipped a coin. Actually, I flipped a coin online. How cool is that? Heads = Memphis wins.
(4) Michigan State def. (13) Delaware: Blue Hens is one of the tournament's best names. I've heard the Spartans are one of the tournament's best teams.
(5) Cincinnati def. (12) Harvard: Fun fact — in six seasons at Michigan, Tommy Amaker failed to take the Wolverines to the Big Dance; this is his third straight appearance with the Crimson. It won't last as long as last year's.
(3) Iowa State def. (14) N.C. Central: The Eagles won 17 straight to close the regular season and are dancing in their third Division I season. That's awesome. Sadly, none of those 17 opponents were half as good as the Cyclones.
(6) North Carolina def. (11) Providence: This could be one of the most enjoyable head-to-head matchups as the Friars' Bryce Cotton (21.4pg) goes up against Marcus "Second Half" Paige. The difference? Well, it'll be made in the second half.
(10) St. Joseph's def. (7) Connecticut: Time to reference the notes: A) St. Joe's has a senior-heavy lineup; B) UConn relies too much on Shabazz Napier. He'll have an off game. Redhawks advance.
(2) Villanova def. (15) Milwaukee: There's no way 'Nova won't win to set up the 'Braggin' rights in Philly' second-round matchup.

SECOND ROUND
(1) Virginia def. (8) Memphis: Considering I only picked Memphis to this game via a coin flip, it would be idiotic to take them another round. Virginia slows the game down, stifles Memphis with its halfcourt defense, and rolls to the Sweet 16.
(4) Michigan State def. (5) Cincinnati: This will be a lot better game than people are realizing who are inking the Spartans in for the second week. Cincy plays great defense and Sean Kilpatrick is an All-American. But MSU is rolling (anyone mentioned that?) and, oh, at full strength, too!
(3) Iowa State def. (6) North Carolina: Best matchup of the second round. Period. Over-under for this game will be 180. In the end, the Cyclones' offensive weapons are more consistent and play both halves.
(2) Villanova def. (10) St. Joseph's: It's a rivalry game! Throw out the records!! Just let the kids go at it!!! Villanova wins a squeaker (bracket note: It's not smart to pick St. Joe's here because it could easily lose to UConn).

SWEET 16
(4) Michigan State def. (1) Virginia. I'm reluctantly hopping on the bandwagon. This game might not see 120 points, but it will see the Spartans' seniors Payne and Appling making the difference.
(3) Iowa State def. (2) Villanova: Iowa State either makes 3s or takes the ball to the rim. That's a recipe for success in my book, and enough to take down overachieving Villanova.

ELITE 8
(4) Michigan State def. (3) Iowa State: Man, this is a tough call for me. I really love the Cyclones. But after watching the 6-foot-10 Payne against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament title game, I have a hard time seeing the Cyclones' front line of no players taller than 6-7 being able to handle him without doubling. That will create issues for ISU. And MSU is a better defensive team.

--------------

SOUTH
FIRST ROUND
(1) Florida def. (16) Albany: Phew ... I was going to pick Mount St. Mary's, but then they lost in the First Four game and didn't have ANY media visit their locker room. So freakin' sad and wrong.
(9) Pittsburgh def. (8) Colorado: Expert analysis — Buffs haven't been the same since losing leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie to a torn ACL. Go Pitt, my friends.
(4) UCLA def. (13) Tulsa: According to The Washington Post (esteemed publication), the Danny Manning-led Golden Hurricane were just "5-9 in conconference play." Conconference? Whatever that means, 5-9 ain't too good. Meanwhile, UCLA just beat Arizona...
(5) VCU def. (12) Stephen F. Austin: Generally playing against Havoc for the first time is no fun (except for Michigan last year). I'm a fan of the Lumberjacks (31-2!!; undefeated in conference), but VCU is experienced, flying under the radar, and hungry.
(3) Syracuse def. (14) Western Michigan: Syracuse is the absolute most difficult team to predict in the Big Dance. Last year, they entered the tournament playing awful and, of course, made the Final Four. This year, they're also struggling after that 25-0 start. They'll at least get this one...
(6) Ohio State def. (11) Dayton: Nice one, Selection Committee! I'm sure it was unintentional putting the Ohio schools within an hour of each other head to head. Whatever. I'm over it. The Buckeyes are a tough tournament bunch who came very close to making the Final Four a year ago.
(7) New Mexico def. (10) Stanford: The Lobos won't falter in the first round like they did to Harvard a year ago. Expect seniors Cameron Bairstow and Kendall Williams to carry the load.
(2) Kansas def. (15) Eastern Kentucky: Mark my words — this will be a bit scary for KU fans. Sans Joel Embiid and with a backcourt that doesn't take great care of the ball against a team that's second in the nation in turnover margin (6.3) and in the top 10 in steals (8.8), this could be close for Kansas.

SECOND ROUND
(1) Florida def. (9) Pittsburgh: These Gators haven't lost since December and won't here against a good but limited Pitt team.
(4) UCLA def. (5) VCU: Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams will make the Rams pay whenever they break the press, creating all kinds of easy buckets.
(3) Syracuse def. (6) Ohio State: The last time these teams met, the officials had a rough day as OSU advanced to the 2012 Final Four. This time, the result will be different because the Buckeyes are a poor 3-point shooting team and will have no answer for the 'Cuse 2-3 zone.
(2) Kansas def. (7) New Mexico: No, the Jayhawks won't have Embiid back, but they will have Andrew Wiggins. You might have hard of him. The Canadian sensation will take over. Steve Nash will be proud.

SWEET 16
(1) Florida def. (4) UCLA: The Bruins have two good players; the Gators have about seven, including four seniors in the starting lineup. Scottie Wilbekin will lead them to their fourth straight Elite Eight.
(2) Kansas def. (3) Syracuse: Unlike the Buckeyes, the Jayhawks shoot the ball really well — they're fifth nationally at a 49.7 percent clip. With Embiid likely back for defensive purposes, they'll make 'em over the zone to victory.

ELITE EIGHT
(1) Florida def. (2) Kansas: Finally, the Gators will break through. I was at their Elite Eight loss to Louisville in 2012 (a game they led for large portions). In 2011, they dropped a nailbiter to Butler. And then last year, Michigan couldn't miss against them. This time around, the Gators will use their array of offensive weapons and dominate the Jayhawks' sometimes inconsistent backcourt.

--------------

WEST

FIRST ROUND

(1) Arizona def. (16) Weber State: I love Damian Lillard's alma mater. I don't love them to beat Arizona.

(9) Oklahoma State def. (8) Gonzaga: This is one of those picks that you know could backfire because EVERYBODY is taking the Cowboys, but they are playing really well and Smart. 

(4) San Diego State def. (13) New Mexico State: This game is worth mentioning for the simple fact that NMSU has a pair of big — understatement — brothers, Sim (7-5, 360) and Tanveer (7-3, 335) Bhullar. If they don't maul the Aztecs like the aliens in Space Jam, I think SDSU will escape. 

(12) North Dakota State def. (5) Oklahoma: I can't help myself. I'm going with the "sexy pick." The Bison are the best shooting team in the nation and will win a barnburner against the Sooners. 

(3) Creighton def. (14) Louisiana Lafayette: Forget what I said about not relying on one player. #FaithInMcDermott.

(11) Nebraska def. (6) Baylor: I just like Tim Miles too much and don't like Baylor enough — despite the incredible, all-over-the-court shooting of Brady Heslip — to not go with the Huskers. 

(7) Oregon def. (10) BYU: Injury alert! — The Cougars are playing their first game sans Kyle Collinsworth (torn ACL), who led them in assists. Not good. Ducks quack on.

(2) Wisconsin def. (15) American: I'm very partial to American — I attend all their games, and host the ONLY WEEKLY PODCAST ABOUT AMERICAN BASKETBALL!! — but the Badgers will be too much to handle in Milwaukee. Not convinced? Listen to the podcast. 

SECOND ROUND

(1) Arizona def. (9) Oklahoma State: I can't give you a really good reason why Arizona is clearly the better team other than they won a lot more games. I can say this: If you pick OSU to win in your bracket, there's a decent chance they won't even be in this game. That can't be said of the Wildcats.

(4) San Diego State def. (12) North Dakota State: Did you know it's been 25 years since Aztecs coach Steve Fisher took over my hometown Michigan Wolverines when Bill Frieder left the program and won the program's only national championship? He'll rekindle a little of that magic this March.

(3) Creighton def. (11) Nebraska: Nice one, Selection Committee. Let's take the two teams from Nebraska and not let them both get past the first weekend (ahem, TV ratings). Oh, the game? Two words: Doug McDermott. 

(2) Wisconsin def. (7) Oregon: I just googled "Wisconsin vs. Oregon" and the first thing that popped up was a recap of the 2012 Rose Bowl, when the Ducks won 45-38. Funny enough, 45 points might have been a Badgers (winning!) score a couple years ago in basketball, but this is not your typical Wisconsin outfit (73.5 ppg!!!) and they're playing in Milwaukee. 

SWEET 16

(1) Arizona def. (4) San Diego State: The Aztecs and their unruly fans might bring the noise, but Arizona will bring the D: The Wildcats gave up 39 points to Utah in a Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal. 

(2) Wisconsin def. (3) Creighton: Did you know — Creighton 3-point specialist Ethan Wragge has taken two — two! — shots from inside the arc this year. He's attempted 220 3-pointers! Wisconsin is very good at defending the arc, where teams attempt just 25 percent of their shots from against the Badgers.

ELITE EIGHT

(1) Arizona def. (2) Wisconsin: Arizona beat Michigan, which beat Wisconsin, so... OK, in really breaking down this matchup, the Wildcats' ballhawking defense won't give the Badgers any open looks and Frank Kaminsky will have a rough afternoon (or evening) against the combination of Kaleb Tarczewski and Aaron Gordon (big, strong fellas!)

--------------

MIDWEST

FIRST ROUND

(1) Wichita State def. (16) Cal Poly: I just watched the Mustangs (14-19 now!) dispatch of Texas Southern, and I gotta say, their confidence is high! They'll soak it up until reality sets in...

(8) Kentucky def. (9) Kansas State: Has anyone been talking about Kentucky the past couple days? Heard anything? Somehow the young Wildcats will cast aside the distractions and win a game.

(4) Louisville def. (13) Manhattan: Quick quiz: Who's the best college basketball team in New York City? Yep, the Manhattan Jaspers. 

(12) North Carolina State def. (5) Saint Louis: Sorry, Billikens, but I'm going with the (it sometimes works) you're cold (four losses in five games), N.C. State is hot (beat Syracuse, won its First Four game) formula. 

(3) Duke def. (14) Mercer: Upset alert — No, I'm not man enough to pick it, but the Bears have won their league back-to-back years and have, gulp, an all-seniors lineup. Like, who does that? Of course, none of 'em can hoop like Jabari Parker (at least they can drink legally better). 

(11) Iowa/Tennessee def. (6) UMass: I'm watching the First Four game as I type this. Iowa is up at half 29-26. I might change this pick later. EDITING UPDATE: 57-52 Iowa, 4:35 left...

(7) Texas def. (10) Arizona State: Nitty gritty — the Longhorns ranked first in the Big 12 in rebounds; the Sun Devils were last in the Pac-12. For a team that's middle of the pack offensively, getting killed on the boards won't help.

(2) Michigan def. (15) Wofford: I don't know what to make of the fact that as a Michigan fan, I'm, like, not at all scared of the Terriers. They just don't move the needle. This probably portends bad things...

SECOND ROUND

(1) Wichita State def. (8) Kentucky: Oh, the Wildcats! Oh, the talent! Oh, oh, oh ... loss. Thankfully, it's a team game and talent doesn't win alone in March. The Shockers are the better team — by far.

(4) Louisville def. (12) N.C. State: T.J. Warren is amazing. If you don't know that, you haven't been watching basketball. However, the Wolfpack's guards will have a hard time even getting him the ball against the Cardinals' press. Advantage: L'ville.

(3) Duke def. (11) Iowa: How can I pick against Duke when I don't even know who they, might, be playing (UPDATE: 33-28 Iowa, early second half). Plus, game's in Raleigh. ... NEW UPDATE: five-point Iowa lead, 4 minutes left. 

(2) Michigan def. (7) Texas: Yes, the Wolverines will struggle against Texas' rebounding and Big 12-best (also) shot-blocking ability. Until, that is, they step outside the arc and start raining 3s. 

SWEET 16

(1) Wichita State def. (4) Louisville: Last year, the Shockers led Lousville 43-32 with 14:19 to play in the national semifinals. But the Cardinals, the best team in the land, got two 3s from Tim Henderson (whom 0.9 percent of fans outside of Kentucky knew was even on the team) and survived against a team that no one expected to be there. This year is different. The Shockers expect to win every game, have nearly everyone back from that game, and won't blow another lead. Different result.

(2) Michigan def. (3) Duke: You know what? I was going to take Duke, but so is nearly everyone. So I'm changing things up. Yes, the Blue Devils beat Michigan in December, but that's when Nik Stauskas shot his shoe better than the basketball. Expect a huge game from the sophomore playing with a chip on his shoulder. Wolverines advance in Indy. 

ELITE EIGHT

(1) Wichita State def. (2) Michigan: You know I love my Wolverines, but that means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING (sadly) and the Shockers are the more complete team. The big key will be at point guard, where Missouri Valley POY Fred VanVleet will hound Michigan's freshman/sophomore duo of Derrick Walton and Spike Albrecht and have no issues creating consistent offense for the incredibly balanced Shockers against the Big Ten's worst defense. 

--------------

FINAL FOUR

(1) Florida def. (4) Michigan State: They're not as good, but this Gators team reminds me a little bit of the back-to-back champions of 2006-07. Everyone knows their role; it's senior-dominated; and the Gators can score in a variety of ways. That's a recipe for success in the Final Four, as the Gators get a little revenge for that national title game loss way back in 2000.

(1) Wichita State def. (1) Arizona: This will be a hard-fought, low-scoring game, but the Wildcat's Pac-12 worst free-throw shooting and lack of depth will hurt them and balanced Wichita State will work the matchups to avoid defensive stalwarts T.J. McConnell and 7-foot Kaleb Tarczewski. 

--------------

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Wichita State 71, Florida 68: Honestly, I could go back to the coin flip here. Instead, I'll go to the history books. The Shockers have a chance at, yes, the best season in the history of college basketball — 40-0. How incredible would that be? Enrollment would increase 700 percent at the Kansas school. I'm not saying this will mean anything on April 7 or negatively affect Florida, but all season long the Shockers have relished being undefeated and haven't shied away from the pressure. That will be no different on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Fred VanVleet will battle Scottie Wilbekin to a draw, Cleanthony Early will impress NBA scouts with his array of inside moves, and Tekele Cotton will make a huge defense play late to seal the victory and silence every last doubter.

Am I picking with my heart? Just a tad. But remember — there's no true formula to winning in March. 

Enjoy the Madness!

Trey Burke saves the night (and a chance at the championship)

Early in the second half at Mackey Arena Wednesday night, it was happening again. As if overtaken by some superior power, Michigan's basketball players were failing to execute the simplest hand-eye coordination plays most kids have down by age 3.

They were losing it, falling apart, on their way to another debilitating road loss, this one, finally, to extinguish their barely flickering Big Ten title hopes. 

Trey Burke intercepted a Purdue pass on a Boilermakers fast break but then, inexplicably, lost the ball as he turned to head upcourt. A Purdue player picked it up, made a layup, and was fouled. 

Disaster. 

Jordan Morgan and Nik Stauskas went up for a rebound against no Purdue defenders, and somehow the ball — oh, that tricky sphere! — eluded them and bounced to a Boilermaker. 

The Wolverines were slow, as if in a trance. 

They had already blown a double-digit lead for the third consecutive game. And they seemed well on their way to faltering against another lowly Big Ten opponent and losing their fifth consecutive game on the road, with no wins away from the friendly confines of Crisler Center since late January.

------------------------------

Burke was part of the problem. His shot was off. He was getting completely outplayed by the Boilermakers' Terone Johnson, who had the performance of his lifetime. 

Apparently, Terone and his bro Ronnie started talking a little trash to Burke. That helped wake him up, I'm sure. But maybe also the fact the his team desperately needed him. After his clutch performance in Michigan's 58-57 victory Sunday over Michigan State, Burke talked about how he had worked at taking on that leadership role and inspiring his teammates.

On Wednesday, Burke had to start a comeback from 12 points down solely by himself. His young teammates looked lost and couldn't grab a loose ball if their scholarships depended on it. 

Burke took over.

First, he hit a contested 3-pointer from the top of the key with 11 minutes, 7 seconds left to cut the deficit to 52-43. On the next possession, he drained a beautiful step-back jumper from the left baseline. 

Burke's teammates were uplifted. Suddenly, the margin didn't seem such a burden. Nik "bandaid" Stauskas — a few days removed from throwing up during halftime of the MSU game after a nasty, unintentional elbow from the Spartans' Branden Dawson — drained a huge 3-pointer to cut the deficit to 54-48.

From there, Burke scored nine of Michigan's next 11 points to finally regain the lead on a jumper with 5:20 left. 

The sophomore point guard put his team on his back and carried them from the brink of tremendous disappointment. Name me five players in the country who could have done that. You'll probably fail. 

Trey Burke is the National Player of the Year. At the beginning of the year, when Michigan was trampling mediocre opponents, the cast around him looked a little better than they actually are — and it's been exposed playing in the country's toughest conference. Burke, though, has been as good as  advertised since Day 1 of practice. 

And like any great player, his teammates feed off him. On three of four possessions as Michigan hung to its reclaimed lead, Stauskas looked like the aggressive, swagger-showing player he was in November, December and January — drilling a contested 3-pointer from the left wing and then making consecutive strong drives to the basket, absorbing the contact and making the free throws.

Burke reinvigorated the freshman, like any great leader would do, then — legs still seemingly fresh — helped ice the game by shooting 7-for-8 from the free-throw line in the final 57 seconds, with the only miss coming after his own coach, John Beilein, iced him to set up the defense!

Michigan, overall, is far from a great team. They're probably not a Final Four team. All you had to do was watch Purdue's final possession, when the Boilermakes were down 78-75 and the Wolverines' Jordan Morgan and Glenn Robinson Jr. unbelievably miscommunicated and left Ronnie Johnson by himself at the top of the key.

Thankfully, Ronnie had no intention of taking a wide-open 3 and instead threw a bullet pass to his red-hot brother Terone, who tried to shoot before he had the ball. 

Burke put the game out of reach with two free throws, and gives Michigan a chance to claim a share of the Big Ten championship Sunday against Indiana at home, where the Wolverines typically have better control of their bodies. '

Let's be thankful for that.

And Burke — wherever he's playing. 

Living vicariously through Michigan basketball

As I sat in Row J of Section 117 at Verizon Center Wednesday night — a $50 seat I had snatched for the price of a beer a month earlier when the Wizards were garbage — I should have been enjoying myself. 

My hometown Detroit Pistons were putting on a clinic of domination I hadn't seen since the six-straight-years-in-the-Eastern-Conference-Finals group that we used to take for granted (oh, how we'd take a simple playoff berth now). 

Brandon Knight looked like an All-Star, absolutely owning former No. 1 pick John Wall, who couldn't hang onto the ball much less make a J. Greg Monroe, back in his college city, was putting on a show for Hoya Nation, knocking down 18-footer after 18-footer from behind the right elbow. 

The Pistons snatched the lead from the Wizards in the third quarter on a Monroe jumper, 66-64. A few minutes later, it was 75-64. And when Knight drilled a 25-footer, it was 78-64 and Washington fans were booing the home team. 

Amazing, right? I should have been flaunting my ugly teal Joe D jersey, right? I mean, we only get to see the Pistons down here twice a year.

Except that I didn't care about the game. Not one bit. 

In fact, I was hardly even watching. 

Instead, my eyes were glued to my phone, witnessing via ESPN Gamecast, Twitter and texts from my man Tick the horror story taking place some 206 miles away in State College, Pa.

------------------------------

Growing up —and, to a certain extent, to this day — my Dad always said something that made sense to me about missing games in which our rooting interest (Detroit Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, etc.) would likely lose and/or ended up losing.

"You didn't want to see that anyway."

"And if they win," he'd say about playoff elimination games, "then there will be another one to watch."

It clicked for me. When the Pistons were playing the Heat in the 2006 Eastern Conference Finals, I didn't have a problem going to the Tigers game the night of Game 6 — with Miami up 3-2 — and listening on my walkman (yes, walkman!). Even though 'Sheed and the boys stunk it up and were eliminated, at least I got to take in a competitive Tigers game (albeit, a 3-2 L to the Red Sox). 

I could live with missing the Pistons' final game of the year. In fact, I was happy I didn't see the 95-78 beatdown. It made the end of a season sting less. 

And so for the past several years — especially as I became a sports journalist and my subjectivity turned to objectivity — I've gotten excited about my hometown Wolverines' and the Tigers' best teams, but never to a point of being extremely disappointed with a loss, never to a point where I've said, "I can't miss a game."

------------------------------

Enter Michigan basketball. Enter this 2012-13 season.

But let me rewind first. Let me explain why Michigan basketball means more to me than any other team. 

The Michigan basketball program was given up on. It became an afterthought. By the year 2000, a program that won a national championship just 11 years prior and made back-to-back championship game appearances a mere seven years before was in the dumps and in the midst of paying heavily for sanctions levied upon it by the NCAA for payments from a booster to a cadre of super talents from the Detroit area.

You know the story. That's not what this is about.

This is about latching onto a team, and a program, and watching it be built back up slowly and wobbly. 

Each year, I paid a little more attention. First there was the Tommy Amaker era, during which he cleaned up the program, stopped the recruitment of poor-character kids (that was mostly a Brian Ellerbe thing), and got the Wolverines on the cusp of the NCAA Tournament a few times. 

On March 3, 2007, during spring break of my senior year at Albion College, I sat at home in Ann Arbor and watched agonizingly as the Wolverines blew a six-point lead with 4 minutes remaining against No. 1 Ohio State in a game that would have sent them to the NCAA Tournament. 

Instead, they missed the Dance for the ninth consecutive year, the team's four seniors finished their careers without a tournament game, and Amaker — after six years — was given the axe.

Coming so close only made me yearn even more for the team to reach the tournament. There's something incredible about failure that can tighten one's attachment to a team (just ask Cleveland fans).

But even more than that, I took satisfaction in being part of a small group of loyalists. Through the Amaker years and then, through the early years of the John Beilein era (really, until the last two years), Michigan basketball remained an afterthought and Crisler Arena a library. 

In Ann Arbor, the talk was "football, football, football, Zingerman's, football" — all while Beilein slowly built from a weak foundation (his first team was 10-22).

------------------------------

Which brings me back to the present. Or to last night. 

As I sat in my seat at Verizon Center staring at my phone and only occasionally glancing at the spectacle in front of me, I didn't just hate that the Wolverines were blowing a 15-point lead in the final 10 minutes, 39 seconds against an 0-14 Big Ten team when the conference championship was on the line.

I hated that I was missing the game. 

Yes, I couldn't stand the fact that I wasn't seated in front of a TV watching Michigan's defense surrender 33 points in the final 10 minutes against the Big Ten's worst offense. 

As I thought about this — and as Penn State eventually claimed the lead and the game — I came to a realization:

For the first time since I can remember, I'm living vicariously through a team. As sad as this sounds for a 29-year-old, the Michigan basketball team has the ability to dictate my mood on a given night or afternoon. 

I have no recollection of another team — not Michigan football, not even the Pistons, although that Robert Horry 3 in the 2005 Finals was devastating — having this effect on me, especially since I became a journalist. 

I still view the team through an objective lens. I'm no 'homer.' So, no, I'm not sore about the officiating last night and, no, the loss wasn't solely a Michigan collapse. From what I've read and seen, Penn State played its best game of the season.

But that didn't improve my mood. And neither did a Pistons victory over the Wizards.

------------------------------

Because of my attachment to this team, to this program, I hate missing a minute of a game. I selfishly want to take it all in, want to absorb every moment of Trey Burke greatness,  analyze every hard hedge by Jordan Morgan, and listen to every Bacari Alexander pregame pep talk.

That's why following the debacle in State College through texts and Twitter wasn't sufficient — 140 characters at a time couldn't explain for me why Penn State was making every shot and Michigan suffered its longest offensive dry spell of the season. 

By the fourth quarter of the NBA game, the college game was in the books. This left me pondering for 40 minutes what had gone wrong. If I had seen the game, at least I could have replayed in my head those key plays that changed the momentum, those close charge-block calls, Michigan's offensive executive down the stretch. Numbers did me no justice. 

"Serves me right for missing the game..." I lamely wrote on Facebook. 

When the Pistons survived a furious last-minute Trevor Ariza rally, I was happy that at least one home team got a W on the night. But there was no comparison, and it had nothing to do with Michigan playing for a lot more. I'm simply much more attached to the Wolverines. And just the Wolverines. 

Every other hometown team I enjoy rooting for and following, especially during playoff time. But the only sports team I live vicariously through is Michigan basketball.

And that makes evenings like Wednesday difficult to stomach. 

(Final) Four tournament concerns for the Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan basketball team's main goal, right now, is to win the regular-season Big Ten championship — and, within that, to focus solely on the one game ahead of them. This, of course, is with good reason. Sleepwalk into a game in the country's toughest league this year, you might not survive it. That's how brutal this league is.

But come mid-March, once the Wolverines have taken on Indiana in their regular-season finale — and once, quite possibly, they've celebrated a second consecutive title — the focus will shift to the tournaments.

First, the Big Ten version. Then, the Big Dance.

And, ultimately, even though it's unfair — even though Michigan might win 30 games and a conference championship — the Wolverines' season will mostly be judged by fans, the national media, and haters on their NCAA Tournament run (or lack thereof).

Which brings me to the point of this column. Michigan stands at 21-2 overall and 8-2 in the league with eight games remaining. That gives coach John Beilein and his staff ample time to work out these main issues that could end up blocking the Wolverines' return, gasp, to the school's first Final Four since, well, the stricken-from-the-record-books Fab Five trips:

1. Freshmen Fatigue: Anyone who watched the Wolverines escape against Ohio State last night noticed a somewhat slow, not-always-alert Glenn Robinson III. Simply put, the freshman is tired! The 6-foot-6, 210-pound frosh is playing undsersized at the power forward position, having to battle the likes of DeShaun Thomas (6-7, 225) and bigger guys night in and night out. He's averaging 36.1 minutes per game — tied for the team lead with Trey Burke — during league play. Nick Stauskas is also averaging 33.5 minutes per game, although not taking as much of a beating. Robinson will be close to useless come mid-March — and Stauskas' shots will likely start falling short — unless Beilein and his staff begin monitoring his minutes and going to more two-post lineups. Speaking of:

2. Jordan Morgan's ankle: The redshirt junior and the rock of the Wolverines' interior defense and rebounding has played a mere 6 minutes the last two games since going down against Illinois. Beilein hasn't said much about his ankle, but Morgan clearly is still laboring. Michigan needs Morgan back to playing 20-30 minutes a game so that A) Robinson can get some rest, as well as Mitch McGary, who played a season-high 29 minutes against the Buckeyes; and B) The Wolverines sure up their defensive rebounding. McGary is playing better and better with each game, but the freshman overcommits on drives, often leaving weakside offensive rebounding opportunities aplenty (think Zeller, Cody). Michigan needs Morgan for March, so Beilein can rotate in and out the three-headed Morgan/McGary/Jon Horford monster while using Robinson primarily when he's fresh and has a good matchup. Michigan likely won't tinker much with a two-post lineup until Morgan is healthy.

3. Trey Burke overdribbling: Burke was better this time around against the ball-hawking Aaron Craft, but there was still that last possession of regulation. Beilein said afterward that he wanted Burke to set up a screen-and-roll with Robinson to get a favorable matchup "but we settled there a little bit." Burke knows he's really good. He also knows — as much as he loves his teammates — that he'll be in the NBA next season where one-on-one play is king. Because, possibly, of this knowledge, he can get into a bad habit — especially against great defenders like Craft — of overdribbling outside the 3-point line instead of running the offense. This makes his teammates stagnant and Michigan one-dimensional. It often results in Burke taking a fadeaway jumper, a shot he has hit on numerous occasions but not at a high percentage. Michigan needs the Burke that realizes how good his teammates are, feeds the ball to the wings — letting Tim Hardaway Jr. catch fire like he did in the second half last night — and doesn't settle. Will Burke, the national player of the year frontrunner, be fully aware in March of what's best for the team?

4. Defense: You couldn't watch the second half last night and not be concerned about the Wolverines' defense. Ohio State played well, but Michigan helped the Buckeyes looks like a much more efficient offensive machine than they've been all season. Ohio State scored a near-perfect 1.46 points per possession in the final 20 minutes before overtime. Michigan, as Beilein admitted afterward, was slow on defensive assignments, completely missed other assignments, and didn't grab rebounds when needed. And this was against a middle-of-the-road offensive team. A disciplined, very good shooting team (think Butler) would shred what the Wolverines are presenting on that end of the court right now. Thankfully, defense is an area that just needs coaching. Yes, Stauskas is slow on the perimeter. But so was Stu Douglass, who learned how to position himself to succeed. Michigan can — and needs to — get better, much better, at defense. If the Wolverines don't improve, they'll likely fall short of their March goals. 

Douglass and Novak leave behind the unlikliest of legacies

Just yesterday, on the best source for Michigan basketball news umhoops.com, the site's main contributor Dylan wrote his semi annual post asking readers for donations to help the keep the site up and running (a very, very worthwhile thing to do).

Nancy Douglass, the mother of Michigan senior Stu Douglass, posted a comment, thanking Dylan for maintaining such an informative site exclusively dedicated to Michigan basketball.

And immediately, the comment thread turned into a Stu Douglass lovefest, with Nancy thanking each poster for their kind words about the soon-to-graduate guard.

"Thanks to you, your family, and Stu for the investment of your lives. It's been fun to follow Stu and company these four years, even from across the Atlantic. I watched a livestream online of the big Duke game Stu's freshman year from my buddy's apartment in Berlin. That's when i knew we had something special in the making. Four years later, my 2.5 year old son dribbles his basketball around saying, "Number One, Stu Douglass has the ball." Thanks for the hope, the inspiration, the fun! All future success is built on the four-year foundation of Stu Douglass and Zach Novak." — Scott GoBlue

"It's hard for us fans as well knowing Stu will never wear the maize and blue...however it will always be w him in all lifes endeavors...Stu-thx for having such class and helping to turn this program around the rite way...with respect and integrity and for the love of pure basketball!! GOD BLESS & GO BLUE!!" — Scott1222

"huge fan of stu. my favorite player since the fab five." — q-sac

Those were just a few of the comments about Stu and fellow senior Zach Novak. And they highlight just what an indelible impact the pair of seniors had on the program.

And to think, this was a pair of kids from Indiana with no scholarship offers. Novak had one from Valparaiso, but it was pulled. Yes, Valpo pulled his scholarship.

John Beilein was coming off a 10-22 opening season in Ann Arbor that didn't exactly create a lot of hope for the program, and needed to fill his first recruiting class. No one had heard about Douglass and Novak when they came in — just a pair of role players, everyone, myself included, thought.

Well, four years and three NCAA Tournament appearances later — three more than Michigan had during the previous decade — Douglass and Novak are leaving a legacy that will never be forgotten even as the four- and five-star recruits continue rolling in and Michigan is a perennial Big Ten power.

No follower of the program will ever forget the timeout during the game at the Breslin Center in 2011, when Novak, then a junior, got in the face of his teammates, yelling and inspiring them to a victory that would turn around what appeared to be a lost season. Since that game, the Wolverines program has been on an upward trajectory.

I could go on and on about the tangibles and intangibles they provided, but by now they've been well-documented. Novak's vocal leadership, grittiness and knack for coming up with loose balls against bigger defenders. Douglass' unheralded defense against the best perimeter players Michigan faced, vastly improved playmaking ability, and clutch shooting (even after complete off nights).

It will all be missed.

And, more than anything, the stability Douglass and Novak brought to a program that had been the epitome of unstable for a decade needs to be remembered as the Wolverines thrive with big-name recruits such as Mitch McGary and Glen Robinson Jr.

Three appearances in the NCAA Tournament. Two tournament wins. And, of course, that first Big Ten title since 1986.

Needless to say, all impossible without the building blocks of John Beilein's success at Michigan.

Hey Nancy, tell Stu his contributions to the program will never be forgotten. Even if I occasionally cringed at his shot selection as an underclassman!

NCAA Tournament breakdown: Coach Cal finally breaks through, but will the banner stay up?

Now that Syracuse is, officially, minus its Melo magic for the Big Dance, I feel comfortable making my NCAA Tournament predictions. However, I reserve the right to make any edits in the next two days if, say, John Henson's wrist  goes numb or Florida State's "veteran" roster decides to go back to work.

With that out of the way, here are my picks. Take my advice at your own risk:

(See full bracket below.)

SOUTH REGION

Play-in round

16 Western Kentucky def. 16 Mississippi Valley State: Gotta set up the in-state matchup.

First Round (*Yes, I will refuse to call it the second round throughout this blog)

1 Kentucky def. 16  Western Kentucky: No, talent is not evenly distributed in the Bluegrass state.

9 Iowa State def. 8 Connecticut: Too many people discussing UConn-Kentucky matchup gets Iowa State fired up into a tizzy.

12 VCU def. 5 Wichita State: In the annual best-two-mid-majors-play-in-the-first-round game, VCU's experience is the difference.

4 Indiana def. 13 New Mexico State: Everyone's writing off the Hoosiers after the loss of Verdell Jones. Tom Crean will have something to say about that.

6 UNLV def. 11 Colorado: The Buffalos are in the tournament? What?? 

3 Baylor def. 14 South Dakota State: Albequerque is a LONG way from the friendly confines of Brookings, SD (1,008 miles, to be exact).

10 Xavier def. 7 Notre Dame: Now is the time when teams conform to their preseason expectations. Yeah.

2 Duke def. 15 Lehigh: I had the absolute pleasure of watching C.J. McCollum play when the Mountain Hawks visited Bender Arena here in D.C., and I think he could take any Blue Devil 1-on-1...

Second round

1 Kentucky def. 8 Iowa State: This is where it gets ugly for the undermanned Cyclones.

12 VCU def. 4 Indiana: Over-under on this one should be about 170. I'll take the Rams in the shootout.

3 Baylor def. 6 UNLV: The Bears are one of the top five most talented teams in the country. The Rebels won't get in their way.

2 Duke def. 10 Xavier: Put this game in Cincy and it's a different story. In Greensboro, the Blue Devils outlast Tu and his crew (nice rhyme, right?) of tough guys.

Sweet 16

1 Kentucky def. 12 VCU: There has to be a ceiling, right, where an inspired performance simply can't -- just can't! -- overrule supreme talent?

3 Baylor def. 2 Duke: Perry Jones III and the Quincys (Acy and Miller) will help Scott Drew exact revenge for the Elite 8 loss in 2010. 

Elite 8

1 Kentucky def. 3 Baylor: Perhaps no game until the final -- hint, hint -- will have as much future NBA talent as this one. But Kentucky has more. Kentucky has a more seasoned coach. Oh, and possessing the POY doesn't hurt, either.

THE BRACKET

WEST REGION

Play-in round

14 Iona def. 14 BYU: No, Iona won't be the VCU of a year ago, but they've heard all the talk about not deserving this spot. Plus, BYU sans Jimmer just doesn't move the dial for me.

First round

1 Michigan State def. 16 Long Island: Who cares about the (sure-to-be-ugly) result of this game? Who saw that incredible LeBron-Wade halfcourt alley-oop by LIU that had Spike losing his shit?

8 Memphis def. 9 St. Louis: I'm going back to the preseason expectations theorem. Memphis was a top-10 team. If not for Rick Majerus, no one knew the Billikens even had a team.

12 Long Beach State def. 5 New Mexico: I think LBSU is tested. The 49ers only faced SDSU, Louisville, Kansas, Xavier, Kansas State, Creighton and UNC in nonconference play.

4 Louisville def. 13 Davidson: No Steph Curry, no magic. 

6 Murray State def. 11 Colorado State: Hey, remember that team that was undefeated for most of the season? That dismantled St. Mary's by 15? Yeah, they're still around.

3 Marquette def. 14 Iona: I wonder if Buzz Williams will jig to Iona's fight song after whoopin' them.

10 Virginia def. 7 Florida: The Cavaliers are struggling. Florida has way more talent. And yet I believe Tony Bennett will construct a defensive theme that flusters the run-'n'-gun Gators. Don't ask me why.

2 Missouri def. 15 Norfolk State: Can I nominate this for biggest blowout by a non-No. 1 seed? Thanks.

Second round

1 Michigan State def. 8 Memphis: So Michigan State was unranked in the preseason and Memphis, as mentioned, was in the top 10. Hmm ... um, nope. Not against Tom Izzo and his COTF Draymond Green.

12 Long Beach State def. 4 Louisville: Four senior starters. A standout point guard named Casper Ware. Tough as nails. Sounds like the recipe for a 12-4 upset (especially out west in Portland).

3 Marquette def. 6 Murray State: I really, really want to take the Racers playing in front of a home crowd in Louisville. But then I think back to the night in Morgantown, where, pre-jig, the Gold Eagles played the first half without three suspended contributors and the second half minus one and found a way to win. 

2 Missouri def. 10 Virginia: The Cavaliers thought they saw a good 3-point shooting team in Florida. Then they ran into the Tigers...

Sweet 16

1 Michigan State def. 12 Long Beach State: The one test missing from the 49ers' top-rated nonconference rate? A battle against Big Ten physicality. The Spartans will not be gentle.

2 Missouri def. 3 Marquette: This could, potentially, be the best game of the entire tournament with points galore and an average possession time of 9 seconds. In the end, 3s are worth more than 2s.

Elite 8

1 Michigan State def. 2 Missouri: Coaching, coaching, coaching. Frank Haith has done a phenomenal job after Mizzou was rightly criticized for hiring a coach with one Big Dance appearance at Miami and, later learned, potential baggage from a football scandal. Tom Izzo is a March genius.That's the itty, bitty difference.

EAST REGION

First round

1 Syracuse def. 16 UNC-Asheville: When I think of the Bulldogs, I think of Kenny George. Remember that big man? Very sadly, in all seriousness, he had to have part of his right foot amputated. I, for one, will never forget him or how Tyler Hansbrough needed about 267 steps to dunk over him.

8 Kansas State def. 9 Southern Miss: Frank Martin threatened to glare at me for six hours if I didn't pick the Wildcats. 'Nuff said.

5 Vanderbilt def. 12 Harvard: It's the Harvard of the South vs. Harvard. Oh, baby! Combine these rosters' SAT scores and you're at a million. However, there's just a little more athleticism and, yes, basketball talent on one side. That, not smarts, will decide this battle of academia.

4 Wisconsin def. 13 Montana: I love the Grizzlies and their 14-game winning streak, but Jordan Taylor is one player I don't want to bet against -- at least not until the next round...

6 Cincinnati def. 11 Texas: I would not want to face the Bearcats in this tournament. And it has nothing to do with The Punch.

3 Florida State def. 14 St. Bonaventure: The Bonnies will find out quickly what's it like (i.e. painful) to face a real ACC defense (sorry, Hokies & Wolfpack).

10 West Virginia def. 7 Gonzaga: Fun fact -- The 'Zags are just 8-8 during their run of success when they're a single-digit seed. They're 8-5 when a double-digit seed. Not a good favorite.

2 Ohio State def. 15 Loyola (Md.): The Greyhounds will hop back on  the bus quickly after this affair. 

Second round

1 Syracuse def. 8 Kansas State: Minus the Orange's March Melo Magic, I consider this a toss-up. So I'm going with the location factor: Manhattan, KS-Pitt = 961 miles. Syracuse-Pitt = 360 miles. 

5 Vanderbilt def. 4 Wisconsin: The 'Dores run of facing equally smart, efficient teams continues. Against the Badgers, their experience trumps Taylor's will to continue his illustrious career.

3 Florida State def. 6 Cincinnati: Can I say best game of the second round? This will be physical. This will be physical (did I say that?). And this will be about ... who makes more 3s. FSU by a sliver.

2 Ohio State def. 10 West Virginia: I can't wait to see The Turk battle Jared Sullinger. And I can't wait to see Aaron Craft hound he's-been-at-WVU-for-44-years Truck Bryant. The difference? The Buckeyes can shoot 3s. WVU can't.

Sweet 16

5 Vanderbilt def. 1 Syracuse: Mark my words: Even if the Orange had Melo, this would not be an upset. In the preseason, Syracuse was No. 5 and Vandy, with good reason, was No. 7. Now the 'Dores, having given Kentucky its second loss of the season -- and first not on the road -- are playing their best basketball. This. Makes. Sense.

3 Florida State def. 2 Ohio State: Both of these teams lost in this round a year ago, so don't say one is hungrier than the other. This will come down to the final minute, and the 'Noles have the best playmaker with the ball in his hands -- Michael Snaer.

Elite 8

5 Vanderbilt def. 3 Florida State: Jeffery Taylor is one of the nation's top seniors. Festus Ezeli has the size, strength and will to bang with FSU's behemoths. And John Jenkins' 3-point stroke is purer than this stuff. It all adds up to Vandy's first-ever Final Four.

MIDWEST REGION

Play-in round

16 Lamar def. 16 Vermont: I hated on Pat Knight's rant against his own team just a few weeks ago. Well, turns out it worked wonders. I'm sure he'll conjure up a strategy to dispose of the Catamounts.

12 Cal def. 12 South Florida: I haven't watched a minute of Cal basketball -- or Pac-12 hoops, for that matter -- since December, but I know this: At the end of South Florida's loss to Notre Dame in the Big East tourney, the Bulls made some of the dumbest plays I've ever seen. Smarts win in the Dance.

First round

1 North Carolina def. 16 Lamar: The magic runs out for Knight, Henson or no Henson.

8 Creighton def. 9 Alabama: Anytime you've got one of the nation's top dozen players, you can win an 8-9 game. It's a maxim. I just made it up.

5 Temple def. 12 Cal: The Owls' experienced backcourt, including Juan Fernandez, who happens to looks very similar to my roommate John Fernandez, trumps the Bears.

4 Michigan def. 13 Ohio: Nothing gets the Wolverines more amped up than the chance to beat Ohio. 

11 N.C. State def. 6 San Diego State: The Wolfpack are playing with as much confidence as any team in the country after they probably should have taken down the Tar Heels in the ACC tourney.They want a rematch.

14 Belmont def. 3 Georgetown: One part of me says, 'C'mon, man, the Hoyas aren't gonna lose in their first game for the third straight year!' Then the other side chimes in: 'But they're playing a team that almost won at Duke, has great depth and experience, and is hungry for a tournament win.' Second voice resonates longer. 

10 Purdue def. 7 St. Mary's: I already picked a West Coast Conference team to lose as a No. 7. Why not another?

2 Kansas def. 15 Detroit: If this were played in the 'D', I might just take the McCallums. They won't be backing down from the Jayhawks. But something tells me the Omaha rims won't create a Remember the Titans sequel.

Second round

1 North Carolina def. 8 Creighton: Have you ever watched a game knowing what the final outcome will likely be but totally intrigued by a side matchup? Well, if not, here you go, as former high school teammates Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes go at it.

4 Michigan def. 5 Temple: The Owls have the experienced backcourt, but the Wolverines have the freshman sensation Trey Burke and the memory of last year's stinging second-round defeat to Duke to fuel them.

11 N.C. State def. 14 Belmont: The Wolfpack remain on a mission to get another crack at the 'Heels (or even play in the same building as them, which this win will do).

2 Kansas def. 10 Purdue: Give me two players in the tournament who care more than Purdue's Robbie Hummel and Kansas' Thomas Robinson after what they've been through. This will be the ultimate effort game, ultimately won by Robinson's ability to dominate the paint.

Sweet 16

1 North Carolina def. 4 Michigan: When the bracket came out, the first word that came to mind when assessing the Wolverines' draw -- brutal. There is no worse matchup for them than the Heels' twin towers.

2 Kansas def. 11 N.C. State: The Wolfpack's dream of a rematch will end a game short in St. Louis, where they'll have no answer for the penetrating ability of Jayhawks senior Tyshawn Taylor.

Elite 8

1 North Carolina def. 2 Kansas: Let's go back to the preseason (one more time). The Tar Heels were the consensus No. 1 team in the land. The Jayhawks, after losing the Morris twins, were picked 13th. They've overachieved, as Bill Self teams tend to do. But like in 2005 and '09, these 'Heels, when motivated -- and we're talking about a Final Four berth -- are on a mission.

FINAL FOUR

1 Kentucky def. 1 Michigan State: As has happened, in heartbreaking fashion, so often, the Spartans' magical run will end on the final weekend of the season. This Kentucky team is young, but not freshmen-dominated. There are a handful of difference-makers who remember last year's late collapse against UConn. It won't happen again.

1 North Carolina def. 5 Vanderbilt: This isn't as much of a mismatch as the "1 vs. 5" label might suggest, but the Tar Heels' depth in the paint and relentless transition attack will wear down Ezeli and eventually lead to a hard-fought victory and the end to the 'Dores' greatest season ever.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Kentucky 81, North Carolina 77: And, finally, we are graced with the rematch many have wanted since Dec. 3, not to mention, let's not forget, a rematch of last year's Elite 8 game that went down to the wire. This game will feature two hands' worth of soon-to-be NBA draft picks, two of the game's best coaches, and a little bit of offense. 

But what about defense? Did you know that Kentucky is one of the top five teams nationally in defense? Probably. And you, and Mr. Henson, know all about POY Anthony Davis and his out-of-this-world shot-blocking ability. So, yes, defense will decide this title game down the stretch, and the Wildcats have just a little bit more of it than the 'Heels. 

Enjoy the Madness.