Picking the 2015 NCAA Tournament — stay chalky!

First off, let me say this. Life is busy. Doing the AU Hoops Podcast every week, plus my regular job, plus dogsitting has kept me from doing a lot of research for this. So there's that.

Take my advice with caution.

But I have watched a fair amount of hoops since November. Really, a ton (as my friend Sam Healy of the podcast would now pipe in, "In other news, Jake is still single." Yes, it true. Prospects who are willing to put up with a basketball nerd? Send 'em my way). And here's my main takeaway from the first five months of this college basketball season.

The top teams are pretty darn good.

The top seven teams — including unbeaten Kentucky — all have four or fewer losses entering the Dance, and Duke is the lone squad with four. I went all the way back to the 2007-08 season — the year when, if you remember, for the first time ever, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four — and even that season only had six four-losses-or-fewer teams entering the tournament.

My point: This is a rare really good year for the teams at the top.

Does that mean upsets won't happen? Of course not. Maybe, in fact, these teams are due to lose. But my money — and believe me, I'm betting a little — is on those at the top mostly holding serve (sorry, I miss tennis) until the later rounds.

Having given my manifesto, here are the picks. As always, I am not liable for any ills that shall befall you as a result of listening to any (or all) of my choices.

MIDWEST
Round of 64
1 Kentucky def. 16 Hampton: C'mon, man.
9 Purdue def. 8 Cincy: If there's one first-round game not to watch, this might be it. I'd be surprised if the score leaves the 50s.
5 WVU def. 12 Buffalo: Injury update — Juwan Staten and Gary Browne will be back for the Mountaineers. That's not good news for Bobby Hurley.
4 Maryland def. 13 Valpo: If there's a dude who wants to win more than Dez Wells, show me him.
6 Butler def. 11 Texas. I LOVE BUTLER. After visiting Hinkle Fieldhouse this December, there's no way I can't pick the Bulldogs.
3 Notre Dame def. 14 Northeastern: Did you see what the Irish did to Duke and North Carolina?
7 Wichita State def. 10 Indiana: Fred. Van. Vleet (actually, it's VanVleet, but I needed the dramatic effect). Not sure there's a point guard I trust more in the country.
2 Kansas def. 15 New Mexico State: Wait ... the WAC still exists?

Round of 32
1 Kentucky def. 9 Purdue: C'mon, man.
5 WVU def. 4 Maryland: The Terps were, according to KenPom (if you don't know KenPom, you're outdated .. sorry), the second luckiest team in the country during the season. That runs out against the Mountaineers.
3 Notre Dame def. 6 Butler: In a classic Indiana battle, Jerian Grant is the difference for the Irish.
7 Wichita State def. 2 Kansas: These schools are separated by 161 miles. They haven't played since 1993. According to KU, it's not best for their program. WSU will play with a chip on their shoulder and win the rivalry (can it even be called that?) game.

Sweet 16
1 Kentucky def. 5 WVU: C'mon, man.
3 Notre Dame def. 7 Wichita State: For one, the game is in Cleveland. More importantly, the Irish have more offensive weapons (fun sports word!) and can beat a fast-breaking team like WSU (see: UNC).

Elite 8
1 Kentucky def. 3 Notre Dame: C'mon man. No analysis needed. Yet.

WEST
Round of 64
1 Wisconsin def. 16 Coastal Carolina: Last year the Chanticleers, a 16 seed, took an early 10-point lead  against UVA before losing by 11. It'll be uglier vs. the Badgers.
8 Oregon def. 9 Oklahoma State: Someone remind me why the Cowboys (18-13 and having lost six of their last seven) are a nine, let alone in the tourney? The 25-9 Ducks will get rid of 'em.
5 Arkansas def. 12 Wofford: Yep, this is a popular upset pick, so I'm going in the oppo direction. Remember that "luck" statistic? No team has had more of it than Wofford. It runs out Thursday.
4 North Carolina def. 13 Harvard: The Crimson are somehow here (I still can't believe Yale isn't) for the fourth straight year and gunning for their third consecutive Big Dance upset. Nope. Not against this super talented UNC squad.
11 Mississippi def. 6 Xavier: Did you see Ole Miss overcome a 17-point deficit against BYU Tuesday night? That was an offensive EXPLOSION. Why not again?
3 Baylor def. 14 Georgia State: Georgia State is a fun story (the coach with the Achilles torn in the ugly title game celebration; the coach's son; the transfer with the horrific injury in his past, Kevin Ware). Baylor is just better at basketball.
10 Ohio State def. 7 VCU: Flip a coin. That's who'll win this game.
2 Arizona def. 15 Texas Southern: This will be A LOT closer than you might think. Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis (formerly of IU) and beat Michigan State on the road in December — a game I watched on my laptop (in other news, I'm still single).

Round of 32
1 Wisconsin def. 8 Oregon: A rematch of last year's game in the same round, which was ridiculously good. This one will be similarly decent for about 30 minutes, but the improved Badgers will pull away.
4 North Carolina def. 5 Arkansas: Two teams that like to run. One team that can also throw it down low to about four different options.
3 Baylor def. 11 Mississippi: Rico Gathers (son of the late Hank Gathers) is a FORCE down low, with 116 more boards than any other Big 12 player. He'll torture the Rebels.
2 Arizona def. 10 Ohio State: First off, I flipped a coin to pick OSU. Secondly, Arizona is really, really good.

Sweet 16
1 Wisconsin def. 4 North Carolina. Wow, this is tough. Here's the thing: North Carolina might actually have a little bit more talent, but the Tar Heels are sporadic. The Badgers' performances are less likely to vary, and having the national POY, Frank the Tank, helps.
2 Arizona def. 3 Baylor: Gathers is neutralized by 7-footer Tarczewski and 6-9 Ashley down low, and 'Zona controls the tempo. How's that for analysis?

Elite 8
2 Arizona def. 1 Wisconsin: I've liked the 'Cats since November, and there's no turning back. It's a rematch of last year's Elite Eight, and this time 'Zona has just enough to win a tight one.

EAST
Round of 64
1 Villanova def. 16 Lafayette: Have you listened to the AU Hoops Podcast? Subscribe on iTunes and you'll know more than you could ever imagine about Lafayette and the league it plays in! Of course, the Leopards will also lose to Nova.
8 N.C. State def. 9 LSU: I must admit, I have a soft spot for the Wolfpack. I have a friend, Amy, who went to N.C. State, and I always want them to do well. Plus, they've got a dude named Cat Barber. What a name!
4 Louisville def. 13 UC Irvine: A) I don't like Louisville and I don't particularly want to see it succeed; 2) UC Irvine has the best nickname (Anteaters!) and is also playing in its first Big Dance. Sad truth: L'ville will win by a lot.
5 Northern Iowa def. 12 Wyoming: While we're doing the fact thing, Northern Iowa is 30-3 and has one of the country's best players, Seth Tuttle. Don't make this your annual 12-5 upset.
6 Providence def. 11 Dayton/Boise State: Confession — I'm watching the play-in game right now, and the team I thought could beat Providence (Dayton) is getting crushed (err, now just beaten). If this changes, I might change this pick. Continue...
3 Oklahoma def. 14 Albany: I still can't believe how Albany made the Dance and crushed the hearts of Stony Brook fans far and wide. The Great Danes are sent back to reality by the Sooners.
7 Michigan State. def. 10 Georgia: Tom Izzo. Michigan State. March. Enough said.
2 UVA def. 15 Belmont: I'll say this ... the game could be close. If there's a team out there that can shoot lights out over the Cavaliers' pack line D, it's the Bruins. Did you see how they beat Murray State to get here? Goodness. This could be fun if they get hot. Or ugly if they don't.

Round of 32
1 Villanova def. 8 N.C. State: 'Nova is the least-talked-about really good team in the field. They'll be talked about after whooping the Wolfpack.
5 Northern Iowa def. 4 Louisville: To be honest, this game is impossible to pick. The Cardinals are a team that can beat anyone or self-destruct in any game. I'm picking self-destruction against the disciplined Panthers.
3 Oklahoma def. 6 Providence: Conference POY Buddy Hield leads the Sooners over Cooley & the Gang.
7 Michigan State def. 2 UVA: Hard, hard pick. UVA is really good. But goodness, the Spartans are on a roll. Maybe I'm a biased Midwesterner, but I can't pick against them (even as a UM guy).

Sweet 16
1 Villanova def. 5 Northern Iowa: This will be a great battle of outside shooting, plus Tuttle going up against Daniel Ochefu and company down low. In the end, the 'Cats have more scorers.
7 Michigan State def. 3 Oklahoma: C'mon, there' no way I'd not pick the Spartans to build on the momentum of taking down one of the nation's top three teams for most of the season.

Elite 8
1 Villanova def. 7 Michigan State: Shooting, shooting, shooting. The Wildcats do it better than just about anyone. Here's a stat for ya: In their last eight games playing in the nation's third toughest conference, the Wildcats scored 1.28 ppp. That's insane! They'll have enough to outscore Sparty.

SOUTH
Round of 64
1 Duke def. 16 Robert Morris: Was there a team that needed a 1 seed more than Duke? The difference is huge. No 1 seeds, of course, have never lost. And the Blue Devils have lost as a 2 twice in four seasons.
8 SDSU def. 9 St. John's: A) The Storm just suspended one of their top dudes the day of the Selection Show!; B) This has to happen so Steve Fisher can play the Devils, and we can watch EVEN MORE Fab Five footage.
12 Stephen F. Austin def. 5 Utah: Simply put, there has to be a 12-5 upset. So this is it.
13 Eastern Washington def. 4 Georgetown: The Hoyas, overseeded to begin with, have this issue with getting upset in the Dance. It becomes mental and the nation's leading scorer, Tyler Harvey, makes it reality for the Eagles.
6 SMU def. 11 UCLA: For the record, the Bruins will likely play very well. That's usually what happens for teams that everyone says don't belong (see: VCU, 2011). Still, LB's Mustangs are built-Ford tough. There's no other way they win that AAC title game at a UConn team Sunday that needed the W to make the Dance. Tough.
3 Iowa State def. 14 UAB: The Blazers pulling off a run to make the Dance after the school cut their football program is a nice story. It'll be ended abruptly by a bunch of Cyclones.
10 Davidson def. 7 Iowa. As us Big Ten followers noted throughout January and February, there's "Good Iowa" and "Bad Iowa." On the other hand, Davidson won the A-10 and is never out of a game because of shooting. That's enough for me. Plus, Adam Woodbury is a jerk.
2 Gonzaga def. 15 North Dakota State: There'll be no repeat magic for the Bison, one of last year's first-round darlings. These Zags are good and might finally be ready to take a Gonzaga team further than expectations beginning here.

Round of 32
1 Duke def. 8 SDSU: Duke beats Steve Fisher again. Sad face.
13 Eastern Washington def. 12 Stephen F. Austin: The nation's leading scorer and the sixth-best-scoring team in the country advance! College hoops needs more points; it needs more Eastern Washington!
3 Iowa State. def. 6 SMU: This'll come down to a battle of the point guards, and 6-2 Monte Morris will outplay hot-shooting 5-9 Nic Moore. How's that for analysis at 11:05pm on a Wednesday!?
2 Gonzaga def. 10 Davidson: First of, one of these darn "Wildcats" needs to be knocked off. Secondly, the Bulldogs are pretty darn good and extremely balanced.

Sweet 16
1 Duke def. 13 Eastern Washington: Ah, the dream has to end somewhere, and Houston will be that place. Duke's freshman-senior guard combo (Jones and Cook) will lead the way, and Okafor will feast on a team whose starters aren't taller than 6-8.
3 Iowa State def. 2 Gonzaga: Hey, well at least this will be the Zags' first Sweet 16 trip since 2009. This will also be a great game, but the Zags will struggle defending the versatility of 6-8 Georges Niang.

Elite 8
3 Iowa State def. 1 Duke: In The Mayor I trust. Fred Hoiberg has one helluva team led by a point guard that doesn't turn it over, the previously mentioned Niang, a lights-out shooter in Naz Long, and Mr. Tough in Dustin Hogue. Throw in the fact that the Cyclones are as good as they get at coming back in a game, and I'll ride 'em into Indianapolis.

FINAL FOUR
Kentucky def. Arizona, 67-59: OK, you want analysis? These Wildcats are better than those Wildcats. Arizona has two really good bigs; Kentucky has four or five. Arizona has one very good point guard; Kentucky has two with contrasting styles. Kentucky's sharpshooter is better than Arizona's. Don't get me wrong, this'll be a good game. But, simply, the Wildcats (these Wildcats) are better.

Villanova def. Iowa State, 78-75: Points, points, points! Who said the college game has a scoring problem? It won't be evident in this shootout. The Wildcats have five guys who average at least one made 3 per game, and the triples won't stop falling against a Cyclones team that has allowed opponents to shoot 35 percent from deep (231st best in the country).

NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky def. Villanova, 71-65: As I said early many times, c'mon man. You can't as an outsider realistically say that when evaluating the facts, you think Kentucky will lose. You simply can't. The Wildcats are not only the most talented team in the country, the team with the best record, and the team with the most depth ... they also are incredibly unselfish, they have won close games, they have played from behind, and they have won in different ways.

Would I like to see a different result? More madness? More unpredictability? Absolutely — that's part of the beauty of March. But as I said at the beginning, this is the year of chalk, sports fans, and no team epitomizes that more than Kentucky.

These Wildcats.

As always, enjoy the madness (or, if it's lacking, simply the basketball).

Rooting for the little guy — American's Marko Vasic brings back fond memories

Marko Vasic might be the shortest center in all of college basketball. Take the 351 teams in Division I, and the 6-foot-5 Serbian on the American University men's basketball team probably measures shorter than anyone else playing his position.

I don't have the time to scour 351 rosters, so you'll have to take my word for it.

Marko Vasic is also playing the best basketball of his career. He's not just passing the eye test; his numbers prove it. In the junior's last three games — two of them wins, including a Patriot League Tournament quarterfinal victory at Lehigh — Vasic is averaging 15.6 points on 19-29 shooting, nine rebounds (including American's first double-double of the year against Lehigh), and 38 minutes played per game.

He's doing this against the likes of Tim Kempton, the 6-10 Patriot League Player of the Year; Bucknell super freshman Nana Foulland, all 6-9 of him; and Navy's twin towers Will Kelly (6-9, shot-blocker extraordinaire) and Edward Alade (6-9, also blocks shots occasionally).

The only reason, of course, Marko is facing such matchups is because American's two rotation big men (yeah, like actual big men) — Kevin Panzer and Zach Elcano — are sidelined by injury; another big, Jonathan Davis, couldn't cut it academically and left the team in December; and freshman 7-footer Gabe Brown isn't up to speed yet to play in every-minute-counts Patriot League battles.

It's far from ideal. It supposedly puts the Eagles at a disadvantage. And I love it.

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It's March, the best month of the year. Ask me why, and I'll answer with one word: basketball. It's the month of underdogs, of madness, of Cinderella, of Butler miracles, of the Farokhmanesh
types. So, naturally, it's a time when I think of and celebrate those who face the biggest obstacles and overcome them — sometimes with a healthy dose of luck, but always with a full cup of belief and inspiration.

This isn't to say that I don't appreciate the greatness of the great. What 31-0 Kentucky has done this season with its crop of soon-to-be lottery picks is incredible. Facing unfair expectations — anything short of a national championship equals failure — the Wildcats have thrived in the pressure-cooker of Rupp Arena and every opposing gym, winning not only blowouts but close games, too. They play together, they share the ball, they don't complain about playing time. That's beautiful.

But, sorry Big Blue Nation, not as beautiful as Marko Vasic overcoming all odds to play center — and play it darn well — for the American Eagles. It brings back memories for me and reminds me of why I love college basketball.

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If you know me, you know that the only sports team I really, really care about year-round is Michigan basketball. And if you've followed the Wolverines and their ascension under the leadership of John Beilein, Zach Novak is an unforgettable name.

All 6-foot-4 of him.

When I think of the fiercest undersized rebounders and defenders in my basketball-watching history, two guys stand out: Charles Barkley and Zach Novak. Yes, I just went there. Novak was not athletic. He wasn't quick. He couldn't jump. But he scrapped, clawed, banged, bruised and inspired teammates.

Michigan got off to a dismal 1-6 start in Big Ten play in 2010-11, and it seemed a near certainty that the Wolverines would miss the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive year, leaving Beilein with just one appearance in four seasons. He would surely feel the heat in Ann Arbor come season's end.


But then came Jan. 27, 2011 — an evening I will never forget. I clearly remember sitting at the bar of Eighteenth Street Lounge, eating a salad and drinking most likely a vodka tonic, my drink of choice at the time (with a couple limes, of course) as the Wolverines played at Michigan State. They hadn't won at Breslin Center since 1997. I had no real expectations of a team struggling playing in one of the country's harshest environments against a Top 25 squad.

And then Zach Novak happened.

The junior, playing undersized the entire game, scored 19 points — making four contested 3-pointers in the first half — and pulled down six tough-guy rebounds to lead the Wolverines to a shocking 61-57 win over an MSU team featuring Draymond Green (you may have heard of him), 6-8 Delvon Roe and a couple young bigs in Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne.

But who the opponents were isn't really the point. What I'll remember is Novak never letting his size dictate his play, showing no fear against bigger players, and leading the Wolverines. During one timeout, he got in everyone's face and willed Michigan to the win.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Michigan won five out of six games, earned a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and came thisclose to upsetting No. 1 seed Kyrie Irving-led Duke in the Big Dance. The following year, Trey Burke arrived as part of a heralded class. The next season, Michigan reached the national championship game. Michigan has had a down season in 2014-15, but the program is in great shape.

For me, it all started with that game, led by an undersized, under-recruited power forward named Zach Novak.

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In many ways, Marko Vasic reminds me of Novak.

No, he's not as vocal on the court — but that's because senior point guard Pee Wee Gardner takes care of that. He might not be quite as nasty, either. But as this season has progressed and especially of late, Vasic has made more Novak-type plays.

Plays that get me out of my chair.

Against Lehigh, Vasic was the difference-maker for the Eagles. He's the main reason they're still alive in the Patriot League Tournament. He snuffed out an Austin Price drive to the basketball. He muscled the 6-10 Kempton for one-handed rebounds, clearing space with his other arm. He took the ball right at Kempton on three consecutive American possessions early in the second half for buckets, then stole the ball from Price and fed Gardner for a fastbreak layup that gave the Eagles their first lead.

The rest, as they say, is history. Ball game.

Coach Mike Brennan has pushed Vasic more than any Eagle — at least that's what I've observed from my seat at Bender Arena all season. No one gets yelled at more. No one gets that steely glare of Brennan's more.

And when Vasic attempted and failed to throw down a massive dunk on a breakaway against Navy, the coach nearly ran out on the floor during play to grab Vasic. That next huddle didn't look pretty. But even that play made me smile, and reminded me of Novak. Vasic showed no fear and probably took off for the rim as if he was 6-9 instead of 6-5 and lacking a great vertical.


Novak had a similar experience, except even worse. He blew a game-winning dunk at the buzzer early in his freshman season (see the embedded video). While that play rightfully caused him plenty of grief, it also set the stage for his career. While undersized, Novak was always going to play bigger. During a time when the Michigan program sorely lacked effective forwards, Novak would hold the Wolverines' front line together and build the foundation for future success.

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Vasic's days of playing center are waning. When this season ends — most likely with the Eagles' next loss; I hope that's in the NCAA Tournament — he will go back, most likely, to playing power forward. Which still, it should be noted, he's undersized for. Even in the Patriot League.

The Eagles will be much deeper next year. Transfers Paris Maragkos (6-foot-9) and Leon Tolksdorf (6-8) will join the rotation. The 6-11 Elcano will be healthy. The 7-footer Brown might work his way into the rotation. American will be big, and it will be nice, as a fan, to watch.

However, this stretch of games, I have a feeling, will always resonate with me.

Marko Vasic, 6-foot-5 center. It's been quite the ride.

Get big.

My NCAA Tournament bracket: Wichita State will go 40-0

Well, it's the evening before the beginning of my absolute favorite few weeks of the year — starting with the most exhausting and exhilarating four days of basketball watching a nut job like myself experiences annually (four days, about 48 hours of watching; my eyes will get a workout).

But before the games begin — Note: I'm sorry, folks, but no First Four picks this year; life got in the way the past two days — it's time for my picks. Note: Proceed with caution in copying any of them to your bracket. Just because I watch a ton of basketball in no way makes me an expert (you'd probably be better off going the mascots, colors, or state capitals route).

Before I dive in, a few notes on things I look for when picking games:
1) First off, there is no perfect formula for winning in March. Every year, some writer or magazine or ESPN talking head tries to say that there is, but the results prove that isn't the case.
2) Picking a team that relies on 3s is dangerous (but can also pay off!).
3) Generally a team with a guy who scores a large percentage of its points won't go far (exception: Kemba Walker, UConn, 2011).
4) Experience does matter. Even the Kentucky team that won in 2012 had contributing upperclassmen. This year's Wildcats team doesn't.
5) And finally, don't lose sleep over picking teams that are "hot" or not. The argument works both ways. A few years ago, Syracuse had a brilliant Big East tournament run and then was bounced in the first round of the Dance. Contrast that with Walker leading the Huskies to the Big East championship followed by six more wins in the Big Dance.

OK, enough of my diatribe. Without further ado, here are my round-by-round picks:

EAST
FIRST ROUND (sorry, NCAA, I'm not calling it second round)
(1) Virginia def. (16) Coastal Carolina: A 16 has never beaten a 1. Period.
(8) Memphis def. (9) George Washington: I just flipped a coin. Actually, I flipped a coin online. How cool is that? Heads = Memphis wins.
(4) Michigan State def. (13) Delaware: Blue Hens is one of the tournament's best names. I've heard the Spartans are one of the tournament's best teams.
(5) Cincinnati def. (12) Harvard: Fun fact — in six seasons at Michigan, Tommy Amaker failed to take the Wolverines to the Big Dance; this is his third straight appearance with the Crimson. It won't last as long as last year's.
(3) Iowa State def. (14) N.C. Central: The Eagles won 17 straight to close the regular season and are dancing in their third Division I season. That's awesome. Sadly, none of those 17 opponents were half as good as the Cyclones.
(6) North Carolina def. (11) Providence: This could be one of the most enjoyable head-to-head matchups as the Friars' Bryce Cotton (21.4pg) goes up against Marcus "Second Half" Paige. The difference? Well, it'll be made in the second half.
(10) St. Joseph's def. (7) Connecticut: Time to reference the notes: A) St. Joe's has a senior-heavy lineup; B) UConn relies too much on Shabazz Napier. He'll have an off game. Redhawks advance.
(2) Villanova def. (15) Milwaukee: There's no way 'Nova won't win to set up the 'Braggin' rights in Philly' second-round matchup.

SECOND ROUND
(1) Virginia def. (8) Memphis: Considering I only picked Memphis to this game via a coin flip, it would be idiotic to take them another round. Virginia slows the game down, stifles Memphis with its halfcourt defense, and rolls to the Sweet 16.
(4) Michigan State def. (5) Cincinnati: This will be a lot better game than people are realizing who are inking the Spartans in for the second week. Cincy plays great defense and Sean Kilpatrick is an All-American. But MSU is rolling (anyone mentioned that?) and, oh, at full strength, too!
(3) Iowa State def. (6) North Carolina: Best matchup of the second round. Period. Over-under for this game will be 180. In the end, the Cyclones' offensive weapons are more consistent and play both halves.
(2) Villanova def. (10) St. Joseph's: It's a rivalry game! Throw out the records!! Just let the kids go at it!!! Villanova wins a squeaker (bracket note: It's not smart to pick St. Joe's here because it could easily lose to UConn).

SWEET 16
(4) Michigan State def. (1) Virginia. I'm reluctantly hopping on the bandwagon. This game might not see 120 points, but it will see the Spartans' seniors Payne and Appling making the difference.
(3) Iowa State def. (2) Villanova: Iowa State either makes 3s or takes the ball to the rim. That's a recipe for success in my book, and enough to take down overachieving Villanova.

ELITE 8
(4) Michigan State def. (3) Iowa State: Man, this is a tough call for me. I really love the Cyclones. But after watching the 6-foot-10 Payne against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament title game, I have a hard time seeing the Cyclones' front line of no players taller than 6-7 being able to handle him without doubling. That will create issues for ISU. And MSU is a better defensive team.

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SOUTH
FIRST ROUND
(1) Florida def. (16) Albany: Phew ... I was going to pick Mount St. Mary's, but then they lost in the First Four game and didn't have ANY media visit their locker room. So freakin' sad and wrong.
(9) Pittsburgh def. (8) Colorado: Expert analysis — Buffs haven't been the same since losing leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie to a torn ACL. Go Pitt, my friends.
(4) UCLA def. (13) Tulsa: According to The Washington Post (esteemed publication), the Danny Manning-led Golden Hurricane were just "5-9 in conconference play." Conconference? Whatever that means, 5-9 ain't too good. Meanwhile, UCLA just beat Arizona...
(5) VCU def. (12) Stephen F. Austin: Generally playing against Havoc for the first time is no fun (except for Michigan last year). I'm a fan of the Lumberjacks (31-2!!; undefeated in conference), but VCU is experienced, flying under the radar, and hungry.
(3) Syracuse def. (14) Western Michigan: Syracuse is the absolute most difficult team to predict in the Big Dance. Last year, they entered the tournament playing awful and, of course, made the Final Four. This year, they're also struggling after that 25-0 start. They'll at least get this one...
(6) Ohio State def. (11) Dayton: Nice one, Selection Committee! I'm sure it was unintentional putting the Ohio schools within an hour of each other head to head. Whatever. I'm over it. The Buckeyes are a tough tournament bunch who came very close to making the Final Four a year ago.
(7) New Mexico def. (10) Stanford: The Lobos won't falter in the first round like they did to Harvard a year ago. Expect seniors Cameron Bairstow and Kendall Williams to carry the load.
(2) Kansas def. (15) Eastern Kentucky: Mark my words — this will be a bit scary for KU fans. Sans Joel Embiid and with a backcourt that doesn't take great care of the ball against a team that's second in the nation in turnover margin (6.3) and in the top 10 in steals (8.8), this could be close for Kansas.

SECOND ROUND
(1) Florida def. (9) Pittsburgh: These Gators haven't lost since December and won't here against a good but limited Pitt team.
(4) UCLA def. (5) VCU: Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams will make the Rams pay whenever they break the press, creating all kinds of easy buckets.
(3) Syracuse def. (6) Ohio State: The last time these teams met, the officials had a rough day as OSU advanced to the 2012 Final Four. This time, the result will be different because the Buckeyes are a poor 3-point shooting team and will have no answer for the 'Cuse 2-3 zone.
(2) Kansas def. (7) New Mexico: No, the Jayhawks won't have Embiid back, but they will have Andrew Wiggins. You might have hard of him. The Canadian sensation will take over. Steve Nash will be proud.

SWEET 16
(1) Florida def. (4) UCLA: The Bruins have two good players; the Gators have about seven, including four seniors in the starting lineup. Scottie Wilbekin will lead them to their fourth straight Elite Eight.
(2) Kansas def. (3) Syracuse: Unlike the Buckeyes, the Jayhawks shoot the ball really well — they're fifth nationally at a 49.7 percent clip. With Embiid likely back for defensive purposes, they'll make 'em over the zone to victory.

ELITE EIGHT
(1) Florida def. (2) Kansas: Finally, the Gators will break through. I was at their Elite Eight loss to Louisville in 2012 (a game they led for large portions). In 2011, they dropped a nailbiter to Butler. And then last year, Michigan couldn't miss against them. This time around, the Gators will use their array of offensive weapons and dominate the Jayhawks' sometimes inconsistent backcourt.

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WEST

FIRST ROUND

(1) Arizona def. (16) Weber State: I love Damian Lillard's alma mater. I don't love them to beat Arizona.

(9) Oklahoma State def. (8) Gonzaga: This is one of those picks that you know could backfire because EVERYBODY is taking the Cowboys, but they are playing really well and Smart. 

(4) San Diego State def. (13) New Mexico State: This game is worth mentioning for the simple fact that NMSU has a pair of big — understatement — brothers, Sim (7-5, 360) and Tanveer (7-3, 335) Bhullar. If they don't maul the Aztecs like the aliens in Space Jam, I think SDSU will escape. 

(12) North Dakota State def. (5) Oklahoma: I can't help myself. I'm going with the "sexy pick." The Bison are the best shooting team in the nation and will win a barnburner against the Sooners. 

(3) Creighton def. (14) Louisiana Lafayette: Forget what I said about not relying on one player. #FaithInMcDermott.

(11) Nebraska def. (6) Baylor: I just like Tim Miles too much and don't like Baylor enough — despite the incredible, all-over-the-court shooting of Brady Heslip — to not go with the Huskers. 

(7) Oregon def. (10) BYU: Injury alert! — The Cougars are playing their first game sans Kyle Collinsworth (torn ACL), who led them in assists. Not good. Ducks quack on.

(2) Wisconsin def. (15) American: I'm very partial to American — I attend all their games, and host the ONLY WEEKLY PODCAST ABOUT AMERICAN BASKETBALL!! — but the Badgers will be too much to handle in Milwaukee. Not convinced? Listen to the podcast. 

SECOND ROUND

(1) Arizona def. (9) Oklahoma State: I can't give you a really good reason why Arizona is clearly the better team other than they won a lot more games. I can say this: If you pick OSU to win in your bracket, there's a decent chance they won't even be in this game. That can't be said of the Wildcats.

(4) San Diego State def. (12) North Dakota State: Did you know it's been 25 years since Aztecs coach Steve Fisher took over my hometown Michigan Wolverines when Bill Frieder left the program and won the program's only national championship? He'll rekindle a little of that magic this March.

(3) Creighton def. (11) Nebraska: Nice one, Selection Committee. Let's take the two teams from Nebraska and not let them both get past the first weekend (ahem, TV ratings). Oh, the game? Two words: Doug McDermott. 

(2) Wisconsin def. (7) Oregon: I just googled "Wisconsin vs. Oregon" and the first thing that popped up was a recap of the 2012 Rose Bowl, when the Ducks won 45-38. Funny enough, 45 points might have been a Badgers (winning!) score a couple years ago in basketball, but this is not your typical Wisconsin outfit (73.5 ppg!!!) and they're playing in Milwaukee. 

SWEET 16

(1) Arizona def. (4) San Diego State: The Aztecs and their unruly fans might bring the noise, but Arizona will bring the D: The Wildcats gave up 39 points to Utah in a Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal. 

(2) Wisconsin def. (3) Creighton: Did you know — Creighton 3-point specialist Ethan Wragge has taken two — two! — shots from inside the arc this year. He's attempted 220 3-pointers! Wisconsin is very good at defending the arc, where teams attempt just 25 percent of their shots from against the Badgers.

ELITE EIGHT

(1) Arizona def. (2) Wisconsin: Arizona beat Michigan, which beat Wisconsin, so... OK, in really breaking down this matchup, the Wildcats' ballhawking defense won't give the Badgers any open looks and Frank Kaminsky will have a rough afternoon (or evening) against the combination of Kaleb Tarczewski and Aaron Gordon (big, strong fellas!)

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MIDWEST

FIRST ROUND

(1) Wichita State def. (16) Cal Poly: I just watched the Mustangs (14-19 now!) dispatch of Texas Southern, and I gotta say, their confidence is high! They'll soak it up until reality sets in...

(8) Kentucky def. (9) Kansas State: Has anyone been talking about Kentucky the past couple days? Heard anything? Somehow the young Wildcats will cast aside the distractions and win a game.

(4) Louisville def. (13) Manhattan: Quick quiz: Who's the best college basketball team in New York City? Yep, the Manhattan Jaspers. 

(12) North Carolina State def. (5) Saint Louis: Sorry, Billikens, but I'm going with the (it sometimes works) you're cold (four losses in five games), N.C. State is hot (beat Syracuse, won its First Four game) formula. 

(3) Duke def. (14) Mercer: Upset alert — No, I'm not man enough to pick it, but the Bears have won their league back-to-back years and have, gulp, an all-seniors lineup. Like, who does that? Of course, none of 'em can hoop like Jabari Parker (at least they can drink legally better). 

(11) Iowa/Tennessee def. (6) UMass: I'm watching the First Four game as I type this. Iowa is up at half 29-26. I might change this pick later. EDITING UPDATE: 57-52 Iowa, 4:35 left...

(7) Texas def. (10) Arizona State: Nitty gritty — the Longhorns ranked first in the Big 12 in rebounds; the Sun Devils were last in the Pac-12. For a team that's middle of the pack offensively, getting killed on the boards won't help.

(2) Michigan def. (15) Wofford: I don't know what to make of the fact that as a Michigan fan, I'm, like, not at all scared of the Terriers. They just don't move the needle. This probably portends bad things...

SECOND ROUND

(1) Wichita State def. (8) Kentucky: Oh, the Wildcats! Oh, the talent! Oh, oh, oh ... loss. Thankfully, it's a team game and talent doesn't win alone in March. The Shockers are the better team — by far.

(4) Louisville def. (12) N.C. State: T.J. Warren is amazing. If you don't know that, you haven't been watching basketball. However, the Wolfpack's guards will have a hard time even getting him the ball against the Cardinals' press. Advantage: L'ville.

(3) Duke def. (11) Iowa: How can I pick against Duke when I don't even know who they, might, be playing (UPDATE: 33-28 Iowa, early second half). Plus, game's in Raleigh. ... NEW UPDATE: five-point Iowa lead, 4 minutes left. 

(2) Michigan def. (7) Texas: Yes, the Wolverines will struggle against Texas' rebounding and Big 12-best (also) shot-blocking ability. Until, that is, they step outside the arc and start raining 3s. 

SWEET 16

(1) Wichita State def. (4) Louisville: Last year, the Shockers led Lousville 43-32 with 14:19 to play in the national semifinals. But the Cardinals, the best team in the land, got two 3s from Tim Henderson (whom 0.9 percent of fans outside of Kentucky knew was even on the team) and survived against a team that no one expected to be there. This year is different. The Shockers expect to win every game, have nearly everyone back from that game, and won't blow another lead. Different result.

(2) Michigan def. (3) Duke: You know what? I was going to take Duke, but so is nearly everyone. So I'm changing things up. Yes, the Blue Devils beat Michigan in December, but that's when Nik Stauskas shot his shoe better than the basketball. Expect a huge game from the sophomore playing with a chip on his shoulder. Wolverines advance in Indy. 

ELITE EIGHT

(1) Wichita State def. (2) Michigan: You know I love my Wolverines, but that means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING (sadly) and the Shockers are the more complete team. The big key will be at point guard, where Missouri Valley POY Fred VanVleet will hound Michigan's freshman/sophomore duo of Derrick Walton and Spike Albrecht and have no issues creating consistent offense for the incredibly balanced Shockers against the Big Ten's worst defense. 

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FINAL FOUR

(1) Florida def. (4) Michigan State: They're not as good, but this Gators team reminds me a little bit of the back-to-back champions of 2006-07. Everyone knows their role; it's senior-dominated; and the Gators can score in a variety of ways. That's a recipe for success in the Final Four, as the Gators get a little revenge for that national title game loss way back in 2000.

(1) Wichita State def. (1) Arizona: This will be a hard-fought, low-scoring game, but the Wildcat's Pac-12 worst free-throw shooting and lack of depth will hurt them and balanced Wichita State will work the matchups to avoid defensive stalwarts T.J. McConnell and 7-foot Kaleb Tarczewski. 

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CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Wichita State 71, Florida 68: Honestly, I could go back to the coin flip here. Instead, I'll go to the history books. The Shockers have a chance at, yes, the best season in the history of college basketball — 40-0. How incredible would that be? Enrollment would increase 700 percent at the Kansas school. I'm not saying this will mean anything on April 7 or negatively affect Florida, but all season long the Shockers have relished being undefeated and haven't shied away from the pressure. That will be no different on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Fred VanVleet will battle Scottie Wilbekin to a draw, Cleanthony Early will impress NBA scouts with his array of inside moves, and Tekele Cotton will make a huge defense play late to seal the victory and silence every last doubter.

Am I picking with my heart? Just a tad. But remember — there's no true formula to winning in March. 

Enjoy the Madness!