Predicting the NCAA Tournament: Game by Game

Lately, my friends have been asking, "Are you ready for the Madness?" Are you excited?

Am I? I feel like I've experienced Madness (if not in March) the past two months. While this college basketball season has rightfully been criticized for a continued decrease in scoring (see: Georgetown 37, Tennessee 36 ... and many other sub-50s games), great rivalries gone dormant (thanks, Missouri for ditching the Big 12), and continued reshuffling of schools to new conferences (thanks, football), it's also been wildly exciting.

Consider these 26 buzzer-beaters that occurred. Consider just the Big Ten, the nation's best conference, that produced a dozen instant classics, with the regular-season championship race coming down to the very last second (ugh, Michigan...). And consider the emergence of schools in the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, even if the casual fan doesn't know the difference between a Billiken and a Lobo.

So madness? It's not starting. It's continuing. 

Which makes this bracket extremely difficult to predict. Just a few of the questions that are boggling my mind as we prepare for play-in Tuesday:

1) How good is the Pac-12? The Selection Committee quacked in the face of Oregon, giving the conference tournament champion a 12 seed. But how good, really, are the Ducks? Or UCLA? Or Cal? They all battled down to the wire for the conference championship, but did close to nothing outside of the league.

2) How good is the Mountain West? New Mexico has the second best RPI in the country, but that was helped by playing Division II schools that don't lower a school's rating. I like the Lobos, but are they better than Ohio State, which survived the grind of the Big Ten?

Those are just a couple of the difficult questions to answer heading into the Dance. All right, I'll stop blabbering. Here are my picks. As always, copy and paste with caution.

PLAY-IN ROUND

(16) North Carolina A&T def. (16) Liberty: The magical run ends for sub-.500 Liberty.

(11) St. Mary's def. (11) MTSU: Two words: Matthew Deleevedova .

(16) LIU Brooklyn def. (16) James Madison: Life is hard enough as a 16 seed, but the Dukes' leading scorer celebrated a bit too hard after winning the CAA.

(13) Boise State def. (13) La Salle: Mountain West > Atlantic 10.

MIDWEST

2ND ROUND

(1) Louisville def. (16) North Carolina A&T: Yeah, 40-point win.

(8) Colorado State def. (9) Missouri: Colorado State is big and rebounds well. Missouri is your typical underachiever. 

(12) Oregon def. (5) Oklahoma State: Will any team in the field come out with more to prove than the Ducks? I think not.

(4) St. Louis def. (13) New Mexico State: Not a contest. The WAC is whack. 

(6) Memphis def. (11) St. Mary's: Memphis doesn't make free throws or play much defense. That shouldn't matter against a very mediocre St. Mary's squad.

(3) Michigan State def. (14) Valpo: Valpo is the most experienced team in the field, but they're facing perhaps the best tournament coach in his home state. Not happening.

(7) Creighton def. (10) Cincinnati: Was impressed with how Creighton's players not named McDermott responded in the MVC championship game.

(2) Duke def. (15) Albany: Who doesn't love the Great Danes? Not Duke on this night, with memories of Lehigh in Coach K's head.

3RD ROUND

(1) Louisville def. (8) Colorado State: Colton Iverson, meet Gorgui Dieng. He will make life very difficult for you down low.

(4) St. Louis def. (12) Oregon: The Ducks haven't faced anyone as physical and well-balanced as the Billikens in the Pac-12. 

(3) Michigan State def. (6) Memphis: Not much of a contest, as Spartans' in-your-face defense rattles Tigers.

(2) Duke def. (7) Creighton: Blue Jays might score with Duke for a half, but it's a 40-minute game, folks.

SWEET 16

(1) Louisville def. (4) St. Louis: This will be a grinder for the Cardinals, but their experienced backcourt of Smith and Siva will be the difference.

(2) Duke def. (3) Michigan State: So tough to predict. I just trust Duke a tiny bit more in late-game situations. Spartans have been shaky late in losses to OSU, Indiana and Michigan.

ELITE 8

(1) Louisville def. (2) Duke: This is where Duke's reliance on the 3 will cost them, and tired legs plus Seth Curry and his injury on just a day's rest won't help. Cardinals back to the Final Four.

WEST

SECOND ROUND

(1) Gonzaga def. (16) Southern: This is the game where East Coast fans will see the Zags and remark, 'Oh, damn, they're really good.'

(8) Pitt def. (9) Wichita State: The Shockers haven't seen anything close to Pitt's defense in the MVC.

(5) Wisconsin def. (12) Mississippi: Can't wait for this game! The Badgers' methodical, plodding attack against Marshall 'just chuck it up' Henderson and his swag. 

(4) Kansas State def. (13) Boise State: I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos pulled off this upset, but the Wildcats play solid defense and are playing in Kansas City.

(6) Arizona def. (11) Belmont: I've always picked Belmont, but the Bruins have let me down with five straight losses in the Dance. Can't take 'em again until they win one. Otherwise, I might...

(3) New Mexico def. (14) Harvard: If you haven't seen Tony Snell play, you're missing out. Dude runs around screens as hard as Richard Hamilton. 

(10) Iowa State def. (7) Notre Dame: Normally I don't pick teams so reliant on the 3-pointer, but here's a hunch that the Cyclones get hot for one game. 

(2) Ohio State def. (15) Iona: Momo Jones ain't gonna have a mojo facing Aaron Craft and Shannon Scott.

3RD ROUND

(1) Gonzaga def. (8) Pitt: You might think that the Big East's Pitt (at least for this tournament still) will outmuscle the Zags. Clearly, you haven't met Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. 

(5) Wisconsin def. (4) Kansas State: Thought you were done with ugly Big Ten games? Think again. This game (a rematch of the 2011 game when their seeds were switched) will have the same result — but lower scoring.

(3) New Mexico def. (6) Arizona: Mountain West > Pac-12. Tony Snell > anyone on 'Zona.

(2) Ohio State def. (10) Iowa State: Cyclones guards will struggle mightily against Buckeyes' pressure defense.

SWEET 16

(1) Gonzaga def. (5) Wisconsin: Badgers will push the 'Zags to the brink, but Gonzaga's balance will prove the difference as Wisconsin can't just focus on perimeter shooters. 

(2) Ohio State def. (3) New Mexico: The Lobos' most similar opponent to the Buckeyes was St. Louis, which routed them 60-46. That was almost three months ago, but I'm predicting a similar result.

ELITE 8

(2) Ohio State def. (1) Gonzaga: I can't go against a team that's coming off wins at Indiana and over Michigan State and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are rolling, their guards will give the 'Zags fits, and if LaQuinton Ross keeps getting better, he'll be a (large) force in the lane. 

SOUTH

SECOND ROUND

(1) Kansas def. (16) Western Kentucky: Think the Jayhawks remember last year's UNC Asheville scare? Yeah, this will be a rout.

(8) North Carolina def. (9) Villanova: Tar Heels are so explosive and playing with great confidence, I'll take them to shoot their way past up-and-down 'Nova.

(5) VCU def. (12) Akron: Playing VCU without your starting point guard? Death trap.

(4) Michigan def. (13) South Dakota State: In high-scoring game, Jackrabbits (fourth-worst defensively in Field of 68) will have no answer for Trey Burke.

(11) Minnesota def. (6) UCLA: Welcome to the game of teams I don't like. I'll make a guess that the Gophers play more like the team that beat Indiana than the one that couldn't manage 50 vs. Illinois.

(3) Florida def. (14) Northwestern State: The Gators are 0-6 in games decided by single digits. This won't be one of those games.

(7) San Diego State def. (10) Oklahoma: Very interesting matchup as Lon Kruger takes on his former MWC opponent. I'll bank on SDSU's upperclassman backcourt and two years of tourney experience.

(2) Georgetown def. (15) Florida Gulf Coast: FGCU is in just its second year of Division I play. The Hoyas have been around while.

THIRD ROUND

(1) Kansas def. (8) North Carolina: Oh, baby! Most hyped matchup of this round! Roy vs. his old school! CBS will love this one, but Roy won't enjoy his 3-point shooters going cold from deep.

(12) VCU def. (4) Michigan: I love my Wolverines, but outside of Burke, their ballhandling is shaky and they'll struggle with just a day to prepare for VCU's havoc 2-2-1 press. 

(3) Florida def. (11) Minnesota: Florida is a much more balanced, more disciplined version of the Gophers. 

(2) Georgetown def. (7) San Diego State: Hoyas' stifling man-to-man and matchup 2-3 zone will overwhelm the Aztecs in Philly.

SWEET 16

(1) Kansas def. (12) VCU: The tournament of learning lessons continues for the Jayhawks, who — with time to prepare — will break the VCU pressure with ease, score often in transition, and avenge that 2011 Elite Eight loss.

(2) Georgetown def. (3) Florida: The Hoyas are more than a one-man outfit, and I find it impossible to believe they'll be blown out, which means a close game. In that scenario, I'll take Otto Porter any day over Florida's "who gets the ball?" approach.

ELITE 8

(1) Kansas def. (2) Georgetown: The Jayhawks' combo of Travis Releford and Perry Ellis will stymie Porter, and the Hoyas lack an answer for Jeff Withey in the post.

EAST

SECOND ROUND

(1) Indiana def. (16) Long Island: The Blackbirds are back in the Dance for the third consecutive year and will score against Indiana. Just not quite as much as the Hoosiers.

(8) N.C. State def. (9) Temple: I've been on the Wolfpack's bandwagon all year long. I'm not jumping off now, even despite their inexplicable no-show performances.

(5) UNLV def. (12) Cal: In an unavoidable quirk in the bracket, these teams that played in the regular season are back at it on Thursday. UNLV won at Cal, barely (76-75), the first time. I'll take the Rebels again even in San Jose.

(4) Syracuse def. (13) Montana: I really want to pick this upset, but the Grizzlies are without their leading scorer. The 'Cuse survive — barely.

(6) Butler def. (11) Bucknell. I've seen Bucknell in person, and the Bison nearly lost at woeful American. Brad Stevens will devise a way to limit the touches for All-American candidate Mike Muscala. 

(14) Davidson def. (3) Marquette: The over-seeded Golden Eagles are in for a battle against an upperclassmen-dominated, well-coached Davidson squad that's determined to have a better showing than last year.

(10) Colorado def. (7) Illinois: The Buffs have the big guards to defend Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, and Illinois' reliance on the 3-pointer will cost 'em.

(2) Miami def. (15) Pacific: All Jim Larranaga has to do to motivate his team for this one? Mention "Florida Gulf Coast."

THIRD ROUND

(1) Indiana def. (8) N.C. State: The Wolfpack are as talented as the Hoosiers, if not as deep, but Richard Howell's offensive game doesn't match that of his opponent Cody Zeller. Indiana outlasts 'Pack.

(5) UNLV def. (4) Syracuse: OK, Syracuse, time to call it a tournament. Lack of leadership dooms Orange against balanced Rebels.

(6) Butler def. (14) Davidson: Do I love this Butler team? Nope. But when it comes to Brad Stevens, I ain't doubting them in the Dance.

(2) Miami def. (10 Colorado: The Buffs may have big guards, but no one who can keep up with Shane Larkin and his playmaking ability.

SWEET 16

(1) Indiana def. (5) UNLV: After the Big Ten grind the Hoosiers went through, this one will be a breeze. 

(2) Miami def. (6) Butler: How awesome is this? Larranaga, coach of that memorable George Mason outfit, against the best mid-major guy in the land! Unfortunately for Stevens, he doesn't have Kenny Kadji, Julian Gamble, Durand Scott and, oh, Larkin at his disposal. 

ELITE 8

(1) Indiana def. (2) Miami: This one's a toss-up, really, but the difference for me is consistency — the Hoosiers have been offensively efficient all season and have great inside-outside balance. Miami, on the other hand, has gone through really bad shooting nights and doesn't rebound as well. IU by a hair.

FINAL FOUR

(1) Louisville def. (2) Ohio State: How fun will this be for those millions of defensive enthusiasts out there?? Yes, this could be uglier than a bad Russ Smith shooting game. But in the end, Louisville's depth (nine players log at least 11.2 mpg) will be the difference.

(1) Kansas def. (1) Indiana: It doesn't get much more storied than this matchup, which will be a bit more aesthetic than the other semifinal. This has all the elements of a great game. The big-man matchup: Zeller vs. Withey. The high-flyers (Oladipo vs. McLemore). And more. But for me, this comes down to Kansas have the quick wings to defend Indiana's smaller guards. And senior experience. The Jayhawks return to the national title game.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

(1) Louisville def. (1) Kansas, 68-62: I've been high on Louisville for over a month, when close to no one was talking about the Cardinals. Outside of a three-game hiccup (sound familiar, Jayhawks?), the Cardinals have been the most consistently good team all season in college basketball. And unlike a team such as Indiana, they stay in every game by playing pestering defense, including the press. This will be a defensive game, with the difference being Louisville's ability to turn over Kansas' sometimes questionable guards. Also, we know that Russ Smith and Peyton Siva will have the ball in their hands at crunch time. I'm not as confident in Kansas freshman McLemore.

Let the madness, um, continue!

Trey Burke saves the night (and a chance at the championship)

Early in the second half at Mackey Arena Wednesday night, it was happening again. As if overtaken by some superior power, Michigan's basketball players were failing to execute the simplest hand-eye coordination plays most kids have down by age 3.

They were losing it, falling apart, on their way to another debilitating road loss, this one, finally, to extinguish their barely flickering Big Ten title hopes. 

Trey Burke intercepted a Purdue pass on a Boilermakers fast break but then, inexplicably, lost the ball as he turned to head upcourt. A Purdue player picked it up, made a layup, and was fouled. 

Disaster. 

Jordan Morgan and Nik Stauskas went up for a rebound against no Purdue defenders, and somehow the ball — oh, that tricky sphere! — eluded them and bounced to a Boilermaker. 

The Wolverines were slow, as if in a trance. 

They had already blown a double-digit lead for the third consecutive game. And they seemed well on their way to faltering against another lowly Big Ten opponent and losing their fifth consecutive game on the road, with no wins away from the friendly confines of Crisler Center since late January.

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Burke was part of the problem. His shot was off. He was getting completely outplayed by the Boilermakers' Terone Johnson, who had the performance of his lifetime. 

Apparently, Terone and his bro Ronnie started talking a little trash to Burke. That helped wake him up, I'm sure. But maybe also the fact the his team desperately needed him. After his clutch performance in Michigan's 58-57 victory Sunday over Michigan State, Burke talked about how he had worked at taking on that leadership role and inspiring his teammates.

On Wednesday, Burke had to start a comeback from 12 points down solely by himself. His young teammates looked lost and couldn't grab a loose ball if their scholarships depended on it. 

Burke took over.

First, he hit a contested 3-pointer from the top of the key with 11 minutes, 7 seconds left to cut the deficit to 52-43. On the next possession, he drained a beautiful step-back jumper from the left baseline. 

Burke's teammates were uplifted. Suddenly, the margin didn't seem such a burden. Nik "bandaid" Stauskas — a few days removed from throwing up during halftime of the MSU game after a nasty, unintentional elbow from the Spartans' Branden Dawson — drained a huge 3-pointer to cut the deficit to 54-48.

From there, Burke scored nine of Michigan's next 11 points to finally regain the lead on a jumper with 5:20 left. 

The sophomore point guard put his team on his back and carried them from the brink of tremendous disappointment. Name me five players in the country who could have done that. You'll probably fail. 

Trey Burke is the National Player of the Year. At the beginning of the year, when Michigan was trampling mediocre opponents, the cast around him looked a little better than they actually are — and it's been exposed playing in the country's toughest conference. Burke, though, has been as good as  advertised since Day 1 of practice. 

And like any great player, his teammates feed off him. On three of four possessions as Michigan hung to its reclaimed lead, Stauskas looked like the aggressive, swagger-showing player he was in November, December and January — drilling a contested 3-pointer from the left wing and then making consecutive strong drives to the basket, absorbing the contact and making the free throws.

Burke reinvigorated the freshman, like any great leader would do, then — legs still seemingly fresh — helped ice the game by shooting 7-for-8 from the free-throw line in the final 57 seconds, with the only miss coming after his own coach, John Beilein, iced him to set up the defense!

Michigan, overall, is far from a great team. They're probably not a Final Four team. All you had to do was watch Purdue's final possession, when the Boilermakes were down 78-75 and the Wolverines' Jordan Morgan and Glenn Robinson Jr. unbelievably miscommunicated and left Ronnie Johnson by himself at the top of the key.

Thankfully, Ronnie had no intention of taking a wide-open 3 and instead threw a bullet pass to his red-hot brother Terone, who tried to shoot before he had the ball. 

Burke put the game out of reach with two free throws, and gives Michigan a chance to claim a share of the Big Ten championship Sunday against Indiana at home, where the Wolverines typically have better control of their bodies. '

Let's be thankful for that.

And Burke — wherever he's playing.