Douglass and Novak leave behind the unlikliest of legacies

Just yesterday, on the best source for Michigan basketball news umhoops.com, the site's main contributor Dylan wrote his semi annual post asking readers for donations to help the keep the site up and running (a very, very worthwhile thing to do).

Nancy Douglass, the mother of Michigan senior Stu Douglass, posted a comment, thanking Dylan for maintaining such an informative site exclusively dedicated to Michigan basketball.

And immediately, the comment thread turned into a Stu Douglass lovefest, with Nancy thanking each poster for their kind words about the soon-to-graduate guard.

"Thanks to you, your family, and Stu for the investment of your lives. It's been fun to follow Stu and company these four years, even from across the Atlantic. I watched a livestream online of the big Duke game Stu's freshman year from my buddy's apartment in Berlin. That's when i knew we had something special in the making. Four years later, my 2.5 year old son dribbles his basketball around saying, "Number One, Stu Douglass has the ball." Thanks for the hope, the inspiration, the fun! All future success is built on the four-year foundation of Stu Douglass and Zach Novak." — Scott GoBlue

"It's hard for us fans as well knowing Stu will never wear the maize and blue...however it will always be w him in all lifes endeavors...Stu-thx for having such class and helping to turn this program around the rite way...with respect and integrity and for the love of pure basketball!! GOD BLESS & GO BLUE!!" — Scott1222

"huge fan of stu. my favorite player since the fab five." — q-sac

Those were just a few of the comments about Stu and fellow senior Zach Novak. And they highlight just what an indelible impact the pair of seniors had on the program.

And to think, this was a pair of kids from Indiana with no scholarship offers. Novak had one from Valparaiso, but it was pulled. Yes, Valpo pulled his scholarship.

John Beilein was coming off a 10-22 opening season in Ann Arbor that didn't exactly create a lot of hope for the program, and needed to fill his first recruiting class. No one had heard about Douglass and Novak when they came in — just a pair of role players, everyone, myself included, thought.

Well, four years and three NCAA Tournament appearances later — three more than Michigan had during the previous decade — Douglass and Novak are leaving a legacy that will never be forgotten even as the four- and five-star recruits continue rolling in and Michigan is a perennial Big Ten power.

No follower of the program will ever forget the timeout during the game at the Breslin Center in 2011, when Novak, then a junior, got in the face of his teammates, yelling and inspiring them to a victory that would turn around what appeared to be a lost season. Since that game, the Wolverines program has been on an upward trajectory.

I could go on and on about the tangibles and intangibles they provided, but by now they've been well-documented. Novak's vocal leadership, grittiness and knack for coming up with loose balls against bigger defenders. Douglass' unheralded defense against the best perimeter players Michigan faced, vastly improved playmaking ability, and clutch shooting (even after complete off nights).

It will all be missed.

And, more than anything, the stability Douglass and Novak brought to a program that had been the epitome of unstable for a decade needs to be remembered as the Wolverines thrive with big-name recruits such as Mitch McGary and Glen Robinson Jr.

Three appearances in the NCAA Tournament. Two tournament wins. And, of course, that first Big Ten title since 1986.

Needless to say, all impossible without the building blocks of John Beilein's success at Michigan.

Hey Nancy, tell Stu his contributions to the program will never be forgotten. Even if I occasionally cringed at his shot selection as an underclassman!

NCAA Tournament breakdown: Coach Cal finally breaks through, but will the banner stay up?

Now that Syracuse is, officially, minus its Melo magic for the Big Dance, I feel comfortable making my NCAA Tournament predictions. However, I reserve the right to make any edits in the next two days if, say, John Henson's wrist  goes numb or Florida State's "veteran" roster decides to go back to work.

With that out of the way, here are my picks. Take my advice at your own risk:

(See full bracket below.)

SOUTH REGION

Play-in round

16 Western Kentucky def. 16 Mississippi Valley State: Gotta set up the in-state matchup.

First Round (*Yes, I will refuse to call it the second round throughout this blog)

1 Kentucky def. 16  Western Kentucky: No, talent is not evenly distributed in the Bluegrass state.

9 Iowa State def. 8 Connecticut: Too many people discussing UConn-Kentucky matchup gets Iowa State fired up into a tizzy.

12 VCU def. 5 Wichita State: In the annual best-two-mid-majors-play-in-the-first-round game, VCU's experience is the difference.

4 Indiana def. 13 New Mexico State: Everyone's writing off the Hoosiers after the loss of Verdell Jones. Tom Crean will have something to say about that.

6 UNLV def. 11 Colorado: The Buffalos are in the tournament? What?? 

3 Baylor def. 14 South Dakota State: Albequerque is a LONG way from the friendly confines of Brookings, SD (1,008 miles, to be exact).

10 Xavier def. 7 Notre Dame: Now is the time when teams conform to their preseason expectations. Yeah.

2 Duke def. 15 Lehigh: I had the absolute pleasure of watching C.J. McCollum play when the Mountain Hawks visited Bender Arena here in D.C., and I think he could take any Blue Devil 1-on-1...

Second round

1 Kentucky def. 8 Iowa State: This is where it gets ugly for the undermanned Cyclones.

12 VCU def. 4 Indiana: Over-under on this one should be about 170. I'll take the Rams in the shootout.

3 Baylor def. 6 UNLV: The Bears are one of the top five most talented teams in the country. The Rebels won't get in their way.

2 Duke def. 10 Xavier: Put this game in Cincy and it's a different story. In Greensboro, the Blue Devils outlast Tu and his crew (nice rhyme, right?) of tough guys.

Sweet 16

1 Kentucky def. 12 VCU: There has to be a ceiling, right, where an inspired performance simply can't -- just can't! -- overrule supreme talent?

3 Baylor def. 2 Duke: Perry Jones III and the Quincys (Acy and Miller) will help Scott Drew exact revenge for the Elite 8 loss in 2010. 

Elite 8

1 Kentucky def. 3 Baylor: Perhaps no game until the final -- hint, hint -- will have as much future NBA talent as this one. But Kentucky has more. Kentucky has a more seasoned coach. Oh, and possessing the POY doesn't hurt, either.

THE BRACKET

WEST REGION

Play-in round

14 Iona def. 14 BYU: No, Iona won't be the VCU of a year ago, but they've heard all the talk about not deserving this spot. Plus, BYU sans Jimmer just doesn't move the dial for me.

First round

1 Michigan State def. 16 Long Island: Who cares about the (sure-to-be-ugly) result of this game? Who saw that incredible LeBron-Wade halfcourt alley-oop by LIU that had Spike losing his shit?

8 Memphis def. 9 St. Louis: I'm going back to the preseason expectations theorem. Memphis was a top-10 team. If not for Rick Majerus, no one knew the Billikens even had a team.

12 Long Beach State def. 5 New Mexico: I think LBSU is tested. The 49ers only faced SDSU, Louisville, Kansas, Xavier, Kansas State, Creighton and UNC in nonconference play.

4 Louisville def. 13 Davidson: No Steph Curry, no magic. 

6 Murray State def. 11 Colorado State: Hey, remember that team that was undefeated for most of the season? That dismantled St. Mary's by 15? Yeah, they're still around.

3 Marquette def. 14 Iona: I wonder if Buzz Williams will jig to Iona's fight song after whoopin' them.

10 Virginia def. 7 Florida: The Cavaliers are struggling. Florida has way more talent. And yet I believe Tony Bennett will construct a defensive theme that flusters the run-'n'-gun Gators. Don't ask me why.

2 Missouri def. 15 Norfolk State: Can I nominate this for biggest blowout by a non-No. 1 seed? Thanks.

Second round

1 Michigan State def. 8 Memphis: So Michigan State was unranked in the preseason and Memphis, as mentioned, was in the top 10. Hmm ... um, nope. Not against Tom Izzo and his COTF Draymond Green.

12 Long Beach State def. 4 Louisville: Four senior starters. A standout point guard named Casper Ware. Tough as nails. Sounds like the recipe for a 12-4 upset (especially out west in Portland).

3 Marquette def. 6 Murray State: I really, really want to take the Racers playing in front of a home crowd in Louisville. But then I think back to the night in Morgantown, where, pre-jig, the Gold Eagles played the first half without three suspended contributors and the second half minus one and found a way to win. 

2 Missouri def. 10 Virginia: The Cavaliers thought they saw a good 3-point shooting team in Florida. Then they ran into the Tigers...

Sweet 16

1 Michigan State def. 12 Long Beach State: The one test missing from the 49ers' top-rated nonconference rate? A battle against Big Ten physicality. The Spartans will not be gentle.

2 Missouri def. 3 Marquette: This could, potentially, be the best game of the entire tournament with points galore and an average possession time of 9 seconds. In the end, 3s are worth more than 2s.

Elite 8

1 Michigan State def. 2 Missouri: Coaching, coaching, coaching. Frank Haith has done a phenomenal job after Mizzou was rightly criticized for hiring a coach with one Big Dance appearance at Miami and, later learned, potential baggage from a football scandal. Tom Izzo is a March genius.That's the itty, bitty difference.

EAST REGION

First round

1 Syracuse def. 16 UNC-Asheville: When I think of the Bulldogs, I think of Kenny George. Remember that big man? Very sadly, in all seriousness, he had to have part of his right foot amputated. I, for one, will never forget him or how Tyler Hansbrough needed about 267 steps to dunk over him.

8 Kansas State def. 9 Southern Miss: Frank Martin threatened to glare at me for six hours if I didn't pick the Wildcats. 'Nuff said.

5 Vanderbilt def. 12 Harvard: It's the Harvard of the South vs. Harvard. Oh, baby! Combine these rosters' SAT scores and you're at a million. However, there's just a little more athleticism and, yes, basketball talent on one side. That, not smarts, will decide this battle of academia.

4 Wisconsin def. 13 Montana: I love the Grizzlies and their 14-game winning streak, but Jordan Taylor is one player I don't want to bet against -- at least not until the next round...

6 Cincinnati def. 11 Texas: I would not want to face the Bearcats in this tournament. And it has nothing to do with The Punch.

3 Florida State def. 14 St. Bonaventure: The Bonnies will find out quickly what's it like (i.e. painful) to face a real ACC defense (sorry, Hokies & Wolfpack).

10 West Virginia def. 7 Gonzaga: Fun fact -- The 'Zags are just 8-8 during their run of success when they're a single-digit seed. They're 8-5 when a double-digit seed. Not a good favorite.

2 Ohio State def. 15 Loyola (Md.): The Greyhounds will hop back on  the bus quickly after this affair. 

Second round

1 Syracuse def. 8 Kansas State: Minus the Orange's March Melo Magic, I consider this a toss-up. So I'm going with the location factor: Manhattan, KS-Pitt = 961 miles. Syracuse-Pitt = 360 miles. 

5 Vanderbilt def. 4 Wisconsin: The 'Dores run of facing equally smart, efficient teams continues. Against the Badgers, their experience trumps Taylor's will to continue his illustrious career.

3 Florida State def. 6 Cincinnati: Can I say best game of the second round? This will be physical. This will be physical (did I say that?). And this will be about ... who makes more 3s. FSU by a sliver.

2 Ohio State def. 10 West Virginia: I can't wait to see The Turk battle Jared Sullinger. And I can't wait to see Aaron Craft hound he's-been-at-WVU-for-44-years Truck Bryant. The difference? The Buckeyes can shoot 3s. WVU can't.

Sweet 16

5 Vanderbilt def. 1 Syracuse: Mark my words: Even if the Orange had Melo, this would not be an upset. In the preseason, Syracuse was No. 5 and Vandy, with good reason, was No. 7. Now the 'Dores, having given Kentucky its second loss of the season -- and first not on the road -- are playing their best basketball. This. Makes. Sense.

3 Florida State def. 2 Ohio State: Both of these teams lost in this round a year ago, so don't say one is hungrier than the other. This will come down to the final minute, and the 'Noles have the best playmaker with the ball in his hands -- Michael Snaer.

Elite 8

5 Vanderbilt def. 3 Florida State: Jeffery Taylor is one of the nation's top seniors. Festus Ezeli has the size, strength and will to bang with FSU's behemoths. And John Jenkins' 3-point stroke is purer than this stuff. It all adds up to Vandy's first-ever Final Four.

MIDWEST REGION

Play-in round

16 Lamar def. 16 Vermont: I hated on Pat Knight's rant against his own team just a few weeks ago. Well, turns out it worked wonders. I'm sure he'll conjure up a strategy to dispose of the Catamounts.

12 Cal def. 12 South Florida: I haven't watched a minute of Cal basketball -- or Pac-12 hoops, for that matter -- since December, but I know this: At the end of South Florida's loss to Notre Dame in the Big East tourney, the Bulls made some of the dumbest plays I've ever seen. Smarts win in the Dance.

First round

1 North Carolina def. 16 Lamar: The magic runs out for Knight, Henson or no Henson.

8 Creighton def. 9 Alabama: Anytime you've got one of the nation's top dozen players, you can win an 8-9 game. It's a maxim. I just made it up.

5 Temple def. 12 Cal: The Owls' experienced backcourt, including Juan Fernandez, who happens to looks very similar to my roommate John Fernandez, trumps the Bears.

4 Michigan def. 13 Ohio: Nothing gets the Wolverines more amped up than the chance to beat Ohio. 

11 N.C. State def. 6 San Diego State: The Wolfpack are playing with as much confidence as any team in the country after they probably should have taken down the Tar Heels in the ACC tourney.They want a rematch.

14 Belmont def. 3 Georgetown: One part of me says, 'C'mon, man, the Hoyas aren't gonna lose in their first game for the third straight year!' Then the other side chimes in: 'But they're playing a team that almost won at Duke, has great depth and experience, and is hungry for a tournament win.' Second voice resonates longer. 

10 Purdue def. 7 St. Mary's: I already picked a West Coast Conference team to lose as a No. 7. Why not another?

2 Kansas def. 15 Detroit: If this were played in the 'D', I might just take the McCallums. They won't be backing down from the Jayhawks. But something tells me the Omaha rims won't create a Remember the Titans sequel.

Second round

1 North Carolina def. 8 Creighton: Have you ever watched a game knowing what the final outcome will likely be but totally intrigued by a side matchup? Well, if not, here you go, as former high school teammates Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes go at it.

4 Michigan def. 5 Temple: The Owls have the experienced backcourt, but the Wolverines have the freshman sensation Trey Burke and the memory of last year's stinging second-round defeat to Duke to fuel them.

11 N.C. State def. 14 Belmont: The Wolfpack remain on a mission to get another crack at the 'Heels (or even play in the same building as them, which this win will do).

2 Kansas def. 10 Purdue: Give me two players in the tournament who care more than Purdue's Robbie Hummel and Kansas' Thomas Robinson after what they've been through. This will be the ultimate effort game, ultimately won by Robinson's ability to dominate the paint.

Sweet 16

1 North Carolina def. 4 Michigan: When the bracket came out, the first word that came to mind when assessing the Wolverines' draw -- brutal. There is no worse matchup for them than the Heels' twin towers.

2 Kansas def. 11 N.C. State: The Wolfpack's dream of a rematch will end a game short in St. Louis, where they'll have no answer for the penetrating ability of Jayhawks senior Tyshawn Taylor.

Elite 8

1 North Carolina def. 2 Kansas: Let's go back to the preseason (one more time). The Tar Heels were the consensus No. 1 team in the land. The Jayhawks, after losing the Morris twins, were picked 13th. They've overachieved, as Bill Self teams tend to do. But like in 2005 and '09, these 'Heels, when motivated -- and we're talking about a Final Four berth -- are on a mission.

FINAL FOUR

1 Kentucky def. 1 Michigan State: As has happened, in heartbreaking fashion, so often, the Spartans' magical run will end on the final weekend of the season. This Kentucky team is young, but not freshmen-dominated. There are a handful of difference-makers who remember last year's late collapse against UConn. It won't happen again.

1 North Carolina def. 5 Vanderbilt: This isn't as much of a mismatch as the "1 vs. 5" label might suggest, but the Tar Heels' depth in the paint and relentless transition attack will wear down Ezeli and eventually lead to a hard-fought victory and the end to the 'Dores' greatest season ever.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Kentucky 81, North Carolina 77: And, finally, we are graced with the rematch many have wanted since Dec. 3, not to mention, let's not forget, a rematch of last year's Elite 8 game that went down to the wire. This game will feature two hands' worth of soon-to-be NBA draft picks, two of the game's best coaches, and a little bit of offense. 

But what about defense? Did you know that Kentucky is one of the top five teams nationally in defense? Probably. And you, and Mr. Henson, know all about POY Anthony Davis and his out-of-this-world shot-blocking ability. So, yes, defense will decide this title game down the stretch, and the Wildcats have just a little bit more of it than the 'Heels. 

Enjoy the Madness.

I wish Carmelo Anthony would just go away

Let me preface my take here by saying that Carmelo Anthony is one of the most talented players in the NBA. We've known that since the March nine years ago when he put the Syracuse Orange on his shoulders and took them to their first and only national championship.

I enjoyed watching the precocious Anthony lead that team.

Then he went to the NBA, became a ball-stopper, one-on-one player, and hasn't been fun to watch for the past decade.

And he has ruined what, for a couple weeks, was the most fun regular-season NBA team to watch since, well, ever.

When Anthony was injured and Jeremy Lin took center stage for New York, I watched every minute of Knicks basketball I could. They were so damn fun to watch. And it wasn't completely because of Lin.

They shared the ball. They ran in Mike D'Antoni's seven-seconds-or-less system. They played team defense (yes, D'Antoni's team played defense). And they won seven consecutive games.

Then Anthony came back, and the Knicks have gone 2-6, including four consecutive losses. Lin has lost much of the aggressiveness and freedom that made him so effective during his immediate rise to fame.

And the Knicks have become, unfortunately, painful to watch again (never mind the fact that they have stopped playing defense, giving up 119 points to Milwaukee Friday).

This probably isn't fair, but I'm dumping all the blame on Anthony.

Consider this statistic — Of the NBA's top 40 scorers, only one player, Danny Granger, has a worse shooting percentage than Anthony's 40.1 percent. And yet Anthony continues to hoist 18.4 shots per game on a team that features much more efficient offensive players like Amare Stoudemire (remember that guy?, Lin and even Landry Fields.

So this is what we've come to in New York — a Knicks team on which Anthony gets his points, shoots a horrible percentage, and the team loses.

What happened to all the fun?

Carmelo, why don't you just disappear?

Or go play for the Raptors.

A guide to last-minute decision-making: postseason edition

I watched A LOT of basketball yesterday. And I will, undoubtedly, watch A TON of basketball during the next month.

And, I'm sure, I will see plenty of what I witnessed toward the end of the Clemson-Florida State game yesterday, which, by the way, was easily the most anticlimactic game of the day (I saw three overtimes and William Buford giving my hometown Wolverines 33.3 percent of the Big Ten title).

The Seminoles were up by seven points, 75-68, with about 1 minute, 45 seconds remaining. All they needed to do was milk the clock down, take a decent shot, not turn the ball over and get back and play solid defense. A few free throws later, they'd be home free.

Michael Snaer, one of the ACC's top players, had other ideas. I love the guy's confidence, but taking a 3-pointer with 20-plus second on the shot clock?

Idiocy.

And then, on the very next possession, driving into a thicket of Tigers with some 20 seconds left on the shot clock and a five-point edge?

Idiocy. And a resulting turnover.

The Seminoles ended up winning, because the Tigers couldn't snare those opportunities afforded them -- see what I did there?? -- but that doesn't diminish the fact that Snaer and FSU provided an opening.

Snaer's decisions, and those of many other players in recent games, have motivated me to put together a list -- not comprehensive, mind you, because I don't write columns the length of Bill Simmons -- or a guide, if you will, to handling late-game situations.

Now, obviously, players are going to make mistakes. But the least a good coach can do is at least get in their players' ears when these situations present themselves.

Here goes:

WHAT THE LOSING TEAM SHOULD DO WITH POSSESSION

• Trailing by 5 with less than 10 seconds left: Shoot a 3-pointer within 5 seconds. A two will do you no good. I see this happen ALL THE TIME.

• Trailing by 6 with less than 15 seconds left: Same deal. Shoot a 3-pointer. Assuming three possessions in 15 seconds with missed foul shots/turnovers is ludicrous.

WHAT THE LOSING TEAM SHOULD DO WITHOUT POSSESSION

• Trailing by one possession with 40 seconds left: Try for the steal for 10-15 seconds and then foul. Try to foul one of the opponent's poorer free-throw shooters, but you can't allow too much time to elapse, especially if down by two or three.

• Trailing by one possession with 45 seconds left: Play aggressive, trapping defense, trying to force a quick shot or turnover, but don't foul. Ten seconds, at least, is plenty of time to go for a final shot if you get the stop.

• Trailing by 5 or more with 1 minute or less remaining: Try for a steal for 8-10 seconds and then foul. You can't afford to let 30 seconds off the clock, even if they don't score.

WHAT THE WINNING TEAM SHOULD DO WITH POSSESSION

• Any possession under 2 minutes with lead of 4 or more: Begin offense with 15 on the shot clock. This way, you're not going to take a shot with more than about 10 on the clock, but you've still got a chance at a good shot.

• Up by 2/3 with 2 minutes left: Forget about the shot clock. The most important thing is to pad the lead. Go into your regular offense. If you're a transition team, push the ball.

WHAT THE WINNING TEAM SHOULD DO WITHOUT POSSESSION

• Less than 10 seconds left, up 3: Foul, foul, foul! Do not give the opposition a chance to tie the game with a 3. This is even easier in the college game than the NBA, because the opposition has to inbound the ball under their basket even after a timeout. Run off a few seconds and foul.

• Less than 90 seconds left, up 3; Don't try to take a charge on an opponent's layup attempt. I saw N.C. State try to do this twice last Wednesday against Miami, and, lucky for the Wolfpack, the 'Canes couldn't put together a three-point play. The charge-block call is so ambiguous, it's dangerous to risk making the play when the opposition could tie the game in the waning moments.

There are infinite situations, of course, and it's a reactionary game. Players aren't always thinking completely clearly. But that's why coaches are supplied with a handful of timeouts. And this is where upperclassmen are valued -- especially this time of year.

And it isn't unusual for the difference between a second-round exit and a Final Four to lie in how teams handle these tense situations. Stay tuned. 

NCAA reverses course, moves up kickoffs

So this is old news by now, but the NCAA decided recently to move kickoffs from the 30- to the 35-yard line.

This was about as difficult of a decision to make as me deciding to go to sleep last night. I was tired. 

Why?

A) The NFL moved kickoffs to the 35-yard line last year.

B) The NFL rarely makes poor decisions or rule changes

C) College kickers look like fifth-graders out on the playground -- back during the days when kids had recess -- compared to NFL kickers.

(Can I go on a brief tangent here? As I followed the football season this past fall, I gawked at just how stark the difference is between college and NFL kickers. One game stands out -- Alabama vs. LSU, the one that was kind of interesting. On both sides of the ball, you had NFL players dressed in college uniforms. Probably 60 percent of guys from that game will don an NFL uniform within three years. However, the place kickers for each team, particularly Alabama, couldn't hold a jock strap to the kickers I remember covering at D-3 Albion College. Just atrocious! After that game, I paid closer attention the rest of the season to the performance of kickers, and I was flabbergasted by just how much better and consistent they are in the NFL -- with a few exceptions. Point of the story? If you have a good college kicker, kids, relish him, make him the BMOC, treat him like your QB, because he's a treasure.)

Anyway, the funny thing about the NCAA's no-brainer decision was that it being the NCAA, this was actually, people may have forgotten, the original rule until maybe two or three years ago. I still don't know what in the world of Sebastian Janikowski the NCAA was thinking when it moved kickoffs back to the 30, but that's what happened.

Then, last season, the NFL made a change. And we all know, especially ESPN Radio, that the NFL is God, so Lord knows the NCAA couldn't go on parading its anemic kickers to the 30, having their kicks not even reach the 10, and then watching the occasional sensationalized injury on a return.

Just not feasible. 

So now we're back to the old rule. And I still expect to see many more returns in the college game than in the NFL. 

However, the best part of the move is that touchbacks -- which have been associated with the 20-yard line since the days of Zeus -- will now come out to the 25 on kickoffs. I can't wait to watch refs in the first couple weeks forget this rule, walk out to the 20, then start hearing Nick Saban or some other irreverent coach in their ear, get all red in the face, and walk it up another 5 yards.

This should be good, and will make for some interesting decisions by return guys, too.

Scenario A: Kickoff goes 3 yards deep. Do you risk returning it at least 28 yards or take a knee? The knee seems like the smart play, but I bet plenty of return men will be too tempted, just 9 feet from that line, to stay put.

We shall see.

In the meantime, hundreds of mediocre, lucky-to-have-full-ride kickers at the Alabamas of the country are taking a deep breath, realizing they might not look as bad, now, as they really are.