Now that Syracuse is, officially, minus its Melo magic for the Big Dance, I feel comfortable making my NCAA Tournament predictions. However, I reserve the right to make any edits in the next two days if, say, John Henson's wrist goes numb or Florida State's "veteran" roster decides to go back to work.
With that out of the way, here are my picks. Take my advice at your own risk:
(See full bracket below.)
SOUTH REGION
Play-in round
16 Western Kentucky def. 16 Mississippi Valley State: Gotta set up the in-state matchup.
First Round (*Yes, I will refuse to call it the second round throughout this blog)
1 Kentucky def. 16 Western Kentucky: No, talent is not evenly distributed in the Bluegrass state.
9 Iowa State def. 8 Connecticut: Too many people discussing UConn-Kentucky matchup gets Iowa State fired up into a tizzy.
12 VCU def. 5 Wichita State: In the annual best-two-mid-majors-play-in-the-first-round game, VCU's experience is the difference.
4 Indiana def. 13 New Mexico State: Everyone's writing off the Hoosiers after the loss of Verdell Jones. Tom Crean will have something to say about that.
6 UNLV def. 11 Colorado: The Buffalos are in the tournament? What??
3 Baylor def. 14 South Dakota State: Albequerque is a LONG way from the friendly confines of Brookings, SD (1,008 miles, to be exact).
10 Xavier def. 7 Notre Dame: Now is the time when teams conform to their preseason expectations. Yeah.
2 Duke def. 15 Lehigh: I had the absolute pleasure of watching C.J. McCollum play when the Mountain Hawks visited Bender Arena here in D.C., and I think he could take any Blue Devil 1-on-1...
Second round
1 Kentucky def. 8 Iowa State: This is where it gets ugly for the undermanned Cyclones.
12 VCU def. 4 Indiana: Over-under on this one should be about 170. I'll take the Rams in the shootout.
3 Baylor def. 6 UNLV: The Bears are one of the top five most talented teams in the country. The Rebels won't get in their way.
2 Duke def. 10 Xavier: Put this game in Cincy and it's a different story. In Greensboro, the Blue Devils outlast Tu and his crew (nice rhyme, right?) of tough guys.
Sweet 16
1 Kentucky def. 12 VCU: There has to be a ceiling, right, where an inspired performance simply can't -- just can't! -- overrule supreme talent?
3 Baylor def. 2 Duke: Perry Jones III and the Quincys (Acy and Miller) will help Scott Drew exact revenge for the Elite 8 loss in 2010.
Elite 8
1 Kentucky def. 3 Baylor: Perhaps no game until the final -- hint, hint -- will have as much future NBA talent as this one. But Kentucky has more. Kentucky has a more seasoned coach. Oh, and possessing the POY doesn't hurt, either.
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| THE BRACKET |
Play-in round
14 Iona def. 14 BYU: No, Iona won't be the VCU of a year ago, but they've heard all the talk about not deserving this spot. Plus, BYU sans Jimmer just doesn't move the dial for me.
First round
1 Michigan State def. 16 Long Island: Who cares about the (sure-to-be-ugly) result of this game? Who saw that incredible LeBron-Wade halfcourt alley-oop by LIU that had Spike losing his shit?
8 Memphis def. 9 St. Louis: I'm going back to the preseason expectations theorem. Memphis was a top-10 team. If not for Rick Majerus, no one knew the Billikens even had a team.
12 Long Beach State def. 5 New Mexico: I think LBSU is tested. The 49ers only faced SDSU, Louisville, Kansas, Xavier, Kansas State, Creighton and UNC in nonconference play.
4 Louisville def. 13 Davidson: No Steph Curry, no magic.
6 Murray State def. 11 Colorado State: Hey, remember that team that was undefeated for most of the season? That dismantled St. Mary's by 15? Yeah, they're still around.
3 Marquette def. 14 Iona: I wonder if Buzz Williams will jig to Iona's fight song after whoopin' them.
10 Virginia def. 7 Florida: The Cavaliers are struggling. Florida has way more talent. And yet I believe Tony Bennett will construct a defensive theme that flusters the run-'n'-gun Gators. Don't ask me why.
2 Missouri def. 15 Norfolk State: Can I nominate this for biggest blowout by a non-No. 1 seed? Thanks.
Second round
1 Michigan State def. 8 Memphis: So Michigan State was unranked in the preseason and Memphis, as mentioned, was in the top 10. Hmm ... um, nope. Not against Tom Izzo and his COTF Draymond Green.
12 Long Beach State def. 4 Louisville: Four senior starters. A standout point guard named Casper Ware. Tough as nails. Sounds like the recipe for a 12-4 upset (especially out west in Portland).
3 Marquette def. 6 Murray State: I really, really want to take the Racers playing in front of a home crowd in Louisville. But then I think back to the night in Morgantown, where, pre-jig, the Gold Eagles played the first half without three suspended contributors and the second half minus one and found a way to win.
2 Missouri def. 10 Virginia: The Cavaliers thought they saw a good 3-point shooting team in Florida. Then they ran into the Tigers...
Sweet 16
1 Michigan State def. 12 Long Beach State: The one test missing from the 49ers' top-rated nonconference rate? A battle against Big Ten physicality. The Spartans will not be gentle.
2 Missouri def. 3 Marquette: This could, potentially, be the best game of the entire tournament with points galore and an average possession time of 9 seconds. In the end, 3s are worth more than 2s.
Elite 8
1 Michigan State def. 2 Missouri: Coaching, coaching, coaching. Frank Haith has done a phenomenal job after Mizzou was rightly criticized for hiring a coach with one Big Dance appearance at Miami and, later learned, potential baggage from a football scandal. Tom Izzo is a March genius.That's the itty, bitty difference.
EAST REGION
First round
1 Syracuse def. 16 UNC-Asheville: When I think of the Bulldogs, I think of Kenny George. Remember that big man? Very sadly, in all seriousness, he had to have part of his right foot amputated. I, for one, will never forget him or how Tyler Hansbrough needed about 267 steps to dunk over him.
8 Kansas State def. 9 Southern Miss: Frank Martin threatened to glare at me for six hours if I didn't pick the Wildcats. 'Nuff said.
5 Vanderbilt def. 12 Harvard: It's the Harvard of the South vs. Harvard. Oh, baby! Combine these rosters' SAT scores and you're at a million. However, there's just a little more athleticism and, yes, basketball talent on one side. That, not smarts, will decide this battle of academia.
4 Wisconsin def. 13 Montana: I love the Grizzlies and their 14-game winning streak, but Jordan Taylor is one player I don't want to bet against -- at least not until the next round...
6 Cincinnati def. 11 Texas: I would not want to face the Bearcats in this tournament. And it has nothing to do with The Punch.
3 Florida State def. 14 St. Bonaventure: The Bonnies will find out quickly what's it like (i.e. painful) to face a real ACC defense (sorry, Hokies & Wolfpack).
10 West Virginia def. 7 Gonzaga: Fun fact -- The 'Zags are just 8-8 during their run of success when they're a single-digit seed. They're 8-5 when a double-digit seed. Not a good favorite.
2 Ohio State def. 15 Loyola (Md.): The Greyhounds will hop back on the bus quickly after this affair.
Second round
1 Syracuse def. 8 Kansas State: Minus the Orange's March Melo Magic, I consider this a toss-up. So I'm going with the location factor: Manhattan, KS-Pitt = 961 miles. Syracuse-Pitt = 360 miles.
5 Vanderbilt def. 4 Wisconsin: The 'Dores run of facing equally smart, efficient teams continues. Against the Badgers, their experience trumps Taylor's will to continue his illustrious career.
3 Florida State def. 6 Cincinnati: Can I say best game of the second round? This will be physical. This will be physical (did I say that?). And this will be about ... who makes more 3s. FSU by a sliver.
2 Ohio State def. 10 West Virginia: I can't wait to see The Turk battle Jared Sullinger. And I can't wait to see Aaron Craft hound he's-been-at-WVU-for-44-years Truck Bryant. The difference? The Buckeyes can shoot 3s. WVU can't.
Sweet 16
5 Vanderbilt def. 1 Syracuse: Mark my words: Even if the Orange had Melo, this would not be an upset. In the preseason, Syracuse was No. 5 and Vandy, with good reason, was No. 7. Now the 'Dores, having given Kentucky its second loss of the season -- and first not on the road -- are playing their best basketball. This. Makes. Sense.
3 Florida State def. 2 Ohio State: Both of these teams lost in this round a year ago, so don't say one is hungrier than the other. This will come down to the final minute, and the 'Noles have the best playmaker with the ball in his hands -- Michael Snaer.
Elite 8
5 Vanderbilt def. 3 Florida State: Jeffery Taylor is one of the nation's top seniors. Festus Ezeli has the size, strength and will to bang with FSU's behemoths. And John Jenkins' 3-point stroke is purer than this stuff. It all adds up to Vandy's first-ever Final Four.
MIDWEST REGION
Play-in round
16 Lamar def. 16 Vermont: I hated on Pat Knight's rant against his own team just a few weeks ago. Well, turns out it worked wonders. I'm sure he'll conjure up a strategy to dispose of the Catamounts.
12 Cal def. 12 South Florida: I haven't watched a minute of Cal basketball -- or Pac-12 hoops, for that matter -- since December, but I know this: At the end of South Florida's loss to Notre Dame in the Big East tourney, the Bulls made some of the dumbest plays I've ever seen. Smarts win in the Dance.
First round
1 North Carolina def. 16 Lamar: The magic runs out for Knight, Henson or no Henson.
8 Creighton def. 9 Alabama: Anytime you've got one of the nation's top dozen players, you can win an 8-9 game. It's a maxim. I just made it up.
5 Temple def. 12 Cal: The Owls' experienced backcourt, including Juan Fernandez, who happens to looks very similar to my roommate John Fernandez, trumps the Bears.
4 Michigan def. 13 Ohio: Nothing gets the Wolverines more amped up than the chance to beat Ohio.
11 N.C. State def. 6 San Diego State: The Wolfpack are playing with as much confidence as any team in the country after they probably should have taken down the Tar Heels in the ACC tourney.They want a rematch.
14 Belmont def. 3 Georgetown: One part of me says, 'C'mon, man, the Hoyas aren't gonna lose in their first game for the third straight year!' Then the other side chimes in: 'But they're playing a team that almost won at Duke, has great depth and experience, and is hungry for a tournament win.' Second voice resonates longer.
10 Purdue def. 7 St. Mary's: I already picked a West Coast Conference team to lose as a No. 7. Why not another?
2 Kansas def. 15 Detroit: If this were played in the 'D', I might just take the McCallums. They won't be backing down from the Jayhawks. But something tells me the Omaha rims won't create a Remember the Titans sequel.
Second round
1 North Carolina def. 8 Creighton: Have you ever watched a game knowing what the final outcome will likely be but totally intrigued by a side matchup? Well, if not, here you go, as former high school teammates Doug McDermott and Harrison Barnes go at it.
4 Michigan def. 5 Temple: The Owls have the experienced backcourt, but the Wolverines have the freshman sensation Trey Burke and the memory of last year's stinging second-round defeat to Duke to fuel them.
11 N.C. State def. 14 Belmont: The Wolfpack remain on a mission to get another crack at the 'Heels (or even play in the same building as them, which this win will do).
2 Kansas def. 10 Purdue: Give me two players in the tournament who care more than Purdue's Robbie Hummel and Kansas' Thomas Robinson after what they've been through. This will be the ultimate effort game, ultimately won by Robinson's ability to dominate the paint.
Sweet 16
1 North Carolina def. 4 Michigan: When the bracket came out, the first word that came to mind when assessing the Wolverines' draw -- brutal. There is no worse matchup for them than the Heels' twin towers.
2 Kansas def. 11 N.C. State: The Wolfpack's dream of a rematch will end a game short in St. Louis, where they'll have no answer for the penetrating ability of Jayhawks senior Tyshawn Taylor.
Elite 8
1 North Carolina def. 2 Kansas: Let's go back to the preseason (one more time). The Tar Heels were the consensus No. 1 team in the land. The Jayhawks, after losing the Morris twins, were picked 13th. They've overachieved, as Bill Self teams tend to do. But like in 2005 and '09, these 'Heels, when motivated -- and we're talking about a Final Four berth -- are on a mission.
FINAL FOUR
1 Kentucky def. 1 Michigan State: As has happened, in heartbreaking fashion, so often, the Spartans' magical run will end on the final weekend of the season. This Kentucky team is young, but not freshmen-dominated. There are a handful of difference-makers who remember last year's late collapse against UConn. It won't happen again.
1 North Carolina def. 5 Vanderbilt: This isn't as much of a mismatch as the "1 vs. 5" label might suggest, but the Tar Heels' depth in the paint and relentless transition attack will wear down Ezeli and eventually lead to a hard-fought victory and the end to the 'Dores' greatest season ever.
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Kentucky 81, North Carolina 77: And, finally, we are graced with the rematch many have wanted since Dec. 3, not to mention, let's not forget, a rematch of last year's Elite 8 game that went down to the wire. This game will feature two hands' worth of soon-to-be NBA draft picks, two of the game's best coaches, and a little bit of offense.
But what about defense? Did you know that Kentucky is one of the top five teams nationally in defense? Probably. And you, and Mr. Henson, know all about POY Anthony Davis and his out-of-this-world shot-blocking ability. So, yes, defense will decide this title game down the stretch, and the Wildcats have just a little bit more of it than the 'Heels.
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