Monday, March 5, 2012

A guide to last-minute decision-making: postseason edition

I watched A LOT of basketball yesterday. And I will, undoubtedly, watch A TON of basketball during the next month.

And, I'm sure, I will see plenty of what I witnessed toward the end of the Clemson-Florida State game yesterday, which, by the way, was easily the most anticlimactic game of the day (I saw three overtimes and William Buford giving my hometown Wolverines 33.3 percent of the Big Ten title).

The Seminoles were up by seven points, 75-68, with about 1 minute, 45 seconds remaining. All they needed to do was milk the clock down, take a decent shot, not turn the ball over and get back and play solid defense. A few free throws later, they'd be home free.

Michael Snaer, one of the ACC's top players, had other ideas. I love the guy's confidence, but taking a 3-pointer with 20-plus second on the shot clock?

Idiocy.

And then, on the very next possession, driving into a thicket of Tigers with some 20 seconds left on the shot clock and a five-point edge?

Idiocy. And a resulting turnover.

The Seminoles ended up winning, because the Tigers couldn't snare those opportunities afforded them -- see what I did there?? -- but that doesn't diminish the fact that Snaer and FSU provided an opening.

Snaer's decisions, and those of many other players in recent games, have motivated me to put together a list -- not comprehensive, mind you, because I don't write columns the length of Bill Simmons -- or a guide, if you will, to handling late-game situations.

Now, obviously, players are going to make mistakes. But the least a good coach can do is at least get in their players' ears when these situations present themselves.

Here goes:

WHAT THE LOSING TEAM SHOULD DO WITH POSSESSION
  • Trailing by 5 with less than 10 seconds left: Shoot a 3-pointer within 5 seconds. A two will do you no good. I see this happen ALL THE TIME.
  • Trailing by 6 with less than 15 seconds left: Same deal. Shoot a 3-pointer. Assuming three possessions in 15 seconds with missed foul shots/turnovers is ludicrous.
WHAT THE LOSING TEAM SHOULD DO WITHOUT POSSESSION
  • Trailing by one possession with 40 seconds left: Try for the steal for 10-15 seconds and then foul. Try to foul one of the opponent's poorer free-throw shooters, but you can't allow too much time to elapse, especially if down by two or three.
  • Trailing by one possession with 45 seconds left: Play aggressive, trapping defense, trying to force a quick shot or turnover, but don't foul. Ten seconds, at least, is plenty of time to go for a final shot if you get the stop.
  • Trailing by 5 or more with 1 minute or less remaining: Try for a steal for 8-10 seconds and then foul. You can't afford to let 30 seconds off the clock, even if they don't score.
WHAT THE WINNING TEAM SHOULD DO WITH POSSESSION
  • Any possession under 2 minutes with lead of 4 or more: Begin offense with 15 on the shot clock. This way, you're not going to take a shot with more than about 10 on the clock, but you've still got a chance at a good shot.
  • Up by 2/3 with 2 minutes left: Forget about the shot clock. The most important thing is to pad the lead. Go into your regular offense. If you're a transition team, push the ball.
WHAT THE WINNING TEAM SHOULD DO WITHOUT POSSESSION
  • Less than 10 seconds left, up 3: Foul, foul, foul! Do not give the opposition a chance to tie the game with a 3. This is even easier in the college game than the NBA, because the opposition has to inbound the ball under their basket even after a timeout. Run off a few seconds and foul.
  • Less than 90 seconds left, up 3; Don't try to take a charge on an opponent's layup attempt. I saw N.C. State try to do this twice last Wednesday against Miami, and, lucky for the Wolfpack, the 'Canes couldn't put together a three-point play. The charge-block call is so ambiguous, it's dangerous to risk making the play when the opposition could tie the game in the waning moments.
There are infinite situations, of course, and it's a reactionary game. Players aren't always thinking completely clearly. But that's why coaches are supplied with a handful of timeouts. And this is where upperclassmen are valued -- especially this time of year.

And it isn't unusual for the difference between a second-round exit and a Final Four to lie in how teams handle these tense situations. Stay tuned. 

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