Wednesday, February 6, 2013

(Final) Four tournament concerns for the Michigan Wolverines

The Michigan basketball team's main goal, right now, is to win the regular-season Big Ten championship — and, within that, to focus solely on the one game ahead of them. This, of course, is with good reason. Sleepwalk into a game in the country's toughest league this year, you might not survive it. That's how brutal this league is.

But come mid-March, once the Wolverines have taken on Indiana in their regular-season finale — and once, quite possibly, they've celebrated a second consecutive title — the focus will shift to the tournaments.

First, the Big Ten version. Then, the Big Dance.

And, ultimately, even though it's unfair — even though Michigan might win 30 games and a conference championship — the Wolverines' season will mostly be judged by fans, the national media, and haters on their NCAA Tournament run (or lack thereof).

Which brings me to the point of this column. Michigan stands at 21-2 overall and 8-2 in the league with eight games remaining. That gives coach John Beilein and his staff ample time to work out these main issues that could end up blocking the Wolverines' return, gasp, to the school's first Final Four since, well, the stricken-from-the-record-books Fab Five trips:

1. Freshmen Fatigue: Anyone who watched the Wolverines escape against Ohio State last night noticed a somewhat slow, not-always-alert Glenn Robinson III. Simply put, the freshman is tired! The 6-foot-6, 210-pound frosh is playing undsersized at the power forward position, having to battle the likes of DeShaun Thomas (6-7, 225) and bigger guys night in and night out. He's averaging 36.1 minutes per game — tied for the team lead with Trey Burke — during league play. Nick Stauskas is also averaging 33.5 minutes per game, although not taking as much of a beating. Robinson will be close to useless come mid-March — and Stauskas' shots will likely start falling short — unless Beilein and his staff begin monitoring his minutes and going to more two-post lineups. Speaking of:

2. Jordan Morgan's ankle: The redshirt junior and the rock of the Wolverines' interior defense and rebounding has played a mere 6 minutes the last two games since going down against Illinois. Beilein hasn't said much about his ankle, but Morgan clearly is still laboring. Michigan needs Morgan back to playing 20-30 minutes a game so that A) Robinson can get some rest, as well as Mitch McGary, who played a season-high 29 minutes against the Buckeyes; and B) The Wolverines sure up their defensive rebounding. McGary is playing better and better with each game, but the freshman overcommits on drives, often leaving weakside offensive rebounding opportunities aplenty (think Zeller, Cody). Michigan needs Morgan for March, so Beilein can rotate in and out the three-headed Morgan/McGary/Jon Horford monster while using Robinson primarily when he's fresh and has a good matchup. Michigan likely won't tinker much with a two-post lineup until Morgan is healthy.

3. Trey Burke overdribbling: Burke was better this time around against the ball-hawking Aaron Craft, but there was still that last possession of regulation. Beilein said afterward that he wanted Burke to set up a screen-and-roll with Robinson to get a favorable matchup "but we settled there a little bit." Burke knows he's really good. He also knows — as much as he loves his teammates — that he'll be in the NBA next season where one-on-one play is king. Because, possibly, of this knowledge, he can get into a bad habit — especially against great defenders like Craft — of overdribbling outside the 3-point line instead of running the offense. This makes his teammates stagnant and Michigan one-dimensional. It often results in Burke taking a fadeaway jumper, a shot he has hit on numerous occasions but not at a high percentage. Michigan needs the Burke that realizes how good his teammates are, feeds the ball to the wings — letting Tim Hardaway Jr. catch fire like he did in the second half last night — and doesn't settle. Will Burke, the national player of the year frontrunner, be fully aware in March of what's best for the team?

4. Defense: You couldn't watch the second half last night and not be concerned about the Wolverines' defense. Ohio State played well, but Michigan helped the Buckeyes looks like a much more efficient offensive machine than they've been all season. Ohio State scored a near-perfect 1.46 points per possession in the final 20 minutes before overtime. Michigan, as Beilein admitted afterward, was slow on defensive assignments, completely missed other assignments, and didn't grab rebounds when needed. And this was against a middle-of-the-road offensive team. A disciplined, very good shooting team (think Butler) would shred what the Wolverines are presenting on that end of the court right now. Thankfully, defense is an area that just needs coaching. Yes, Stauskas is slow on the perimeter. But so was Stu Douglass, who learned how to position himself to succeed. Michigan can — and needs to — get better, much better, at defense. If the Wolverines don't improve, they'll likely fall short of their March goals. 

1 comment:

  1. I think they should almost get rid of the pick n roll and add a couple sets of off ball screens for Nik

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