But before the games begin — Note: I'm sorry, folks, but no First Four picks this year; life got in the way the past two days — it's time for my picks. Note: Proceed with caution in copying any of them to your bracket. Just because I watch a ton of basketball in no way makes me an expert (you'd probably be better off going the mascots, colors, or state capitals route).
Before I dive in, a few notes on things I look for when picking games:
1) First off, there is no perfect formula for winning in March. Every year, some writer or magazine or ESPN talking head tries to say that there is, but the results prove that isn't the case.
2) Picking a team that relies on 3s is dangerous (but can also pay off!).
3) Generally a team with a guy who scores a large percentage of its points won't go far (exception: Kemba Walker, UConn, 2011).
4) Experience does matter. Even the Kentucky team that won in 2012 had contributing upperclassmen. This year's Wildcats team doesn't.
5) And finally, don't lose sleep over picking teams that are "hot" or not. The argument works both ways. A few years ago, Syracuse had a brilliant Big East tournament run and then was bounced in the first round of the Dance. Contrast that with Walker leading the Huskies to the Big East championship followed by six more wins in the Big Dance.
OK, enough of my diatribe. Without further ado, here are my round-by-round picks:
EAST
FIRST ROUND (sorry, NCAA, I'm not calling it second round)
(1) Virginia def. (16) Coastal Carolina: A 16 has never beaten a 1. Period.
(8) Memphis def. (9) George Washington: I just flipped a coin. Actually, I flipped a coin online. How cool is that? Heads = Memphis wins.
(4) Michigan State def. (13) Delaware: Blue Hens is one of the tournament's best names. I've heard the Spartans are one of the tournament's best teams.
(5) Cincinnati def. (12) Harvard: Fun fact — in six seasons at Michigan, Tommy Amaker failed to take the Wolverines to the Big Dance; this is his third straight appearance with the Crimson. It won't last as long as last year's.
(3) Iowa State def. (14) N.C. Central: The Eagles won 17 straight to close the regular season and are dancing in their third Division I season. That's awesome. Sadly, none of those 17 opponents were half as good as the Cyclones.
(6) North Carolina def. (11) Providence: This could be one of the most enjoyable head-to-head matchups as the Friars' Bryce Cotton (21.4pg) goes up against Marcus "Second Half" Paige. The difference? Well, it'll be made in the second half.
(10) St. Joseph's def. (7) Connecticut: Time to reference the notes: A) St. Joe's has a senior-heavy lineup; B) UConn relies too much on Shabazz Napier. He'll have an off game. Redhawks advance.
(2) Villanova def. (15) Milwaukee: There's no way 'Nova won't win to set up the 'Braggin' rights in Philly' second-round matchup.
SECOND ROUND
(1) Virginia def. (8) Memphis: Considering I only picked Memphis to this game via a coin flip, it would be idiotic to take them another round. Virginia slows the game down, stifles Memphis with its halfcourt defense, and rolls to the Sweet 16.
(4) Michigan State def. (5) Cincinnati: This will be a lot better game than people are realizing who are inking the Spartans in for the second week. Cincy plays great defense and Sean Kilpatrick is an All-American. But MSU is rolling (anyone mentioned that?) and, oh, at full strength, too!
(3) Iowa State def. (6) North Carolina: Best matchup of the second round. Period. Over-under for this game will be 180. In the end, the Cyclones' offensive weapons are more consistent and play both halves.
(2) Villanova def. (10) St. Joseph's: It's a rivalry game! Throw out the records!! Just let the kids go at it!!! Villanova wins a squeaker (bracket note: It's not smart to pick St. Joe's here because it could easily lose to UConn).
SWEET 16
(4) Michigan State def. (1) Virginia. I'm reluctantly hopping on the bandwagon. This game might not see 120 points, but it will see the Spartans' seniors Payne and Appling making the difference.
(3) Iowa State def. (2) Villanova: Iowa State either makes 3s or takes the ball to the rim. That's a recipe for success in my book, and enough to take down overachieving Villanova.
ELITE 8
(4) Michigan State def. (3) Iowa State: Man, this is a tough call for me. I really love the Cyclones. But after watching the 6-foot-10 Payne against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament title game, I have a hard time seeing the Cyclones' front line of no players taller than 6-7 being able to handle him without doubling. That will create issues for ISU. And MSU is a better defensive team.
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SOUTH
FIRST ROUND
(1) Florida def. (16) Albany: Phew ... I was going to pick Mount St. Mary's, but then they lost in the First Four game and didn't have ANY media visit their locker room. So freakin' sad and wrong.
(9) Pittsburgh def. (8) Colorado: Expert analysis — Buffs haven't been the same since losing leading scorer Spencer Dinwiddie to a torn ACL. Go Pitt, my friends.
(4) UCLA def. (13) Tulsa: According to The Washington Post (esteemed publication), the Danny Manning-led Golden Hurricane were just "5-9 in conconference play." Conconference? Whatever that means, 5-9 ain't too good. Meanwhile, UCLA just beat Arizona...
(5) VCU def. (12) Stephen F. Austin: Generally playing against Havoc for the first time is no fun (except for Michigan last year). I'm a fan of the Lumberjacks (31-2!!; undefeated in conference), but VCU is experienced, flying under the radar, and hungry.
(3) Syracuse def. (14) Western Michigan: Syracuse is the absolute most difficult team to predict in the Big Dance. Last year, they entered the tournament playing awful and, of course, made the Final Four. This year, they're also struggling after that 25-0 start. They'll at least get this one...
(6) Ohio State def. (11) Dayton: Nice one, Selection Committee! I'm sure it was unintentional putting the Ohio schools within an hour of each other head to head. Whatever. I'm over it. The Buckeyes are a tough tournament bunch who came very close to making the Final Four a year ago.
(7) New Mexico def. (10) Stanford: The Lobos won't falter in the first round like they did to Harvard a year ago. Expect seniors Cameron Bairstow and Kendall Williams to carry the load.
(2) Kansas def. (15) Eastern Kentucky: Mark my words — this will be a bit scary for KU fans. Sans Joel Embiid and with a backcourt that doesn't take great care of the ball against a team that's second in the nation in turnover margin (6.3) and in the top 10 in steals (8.8), this could be close for Kansas.
SECOND ROUND
(1) Florida def. (9) Pittsburgh: These Gators haven't lost since December and won't here against a good but limited Pitt team.
(4) UCLA def. (5) VCU: Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams will make the Rams pay whenever they break the press, creating all kinds of easy buckets.
(3) Syracuse def. (6) Ohio State: The last time these teams met, the officials had a rough day as OSU advanced to the 2012 Final Four. This time, the result will be different because the Buckeyes are a poor 3-point shooting team and will have no answer for the 'Cuse 2-3 zone.
(2) Kansas def. (7) New Mexico: No, the Jayhawks won't have Embiid back, but they will have Andrew Wiggins. You might have hard of him. The Canadian sensation will take over. Steve Nash will be proud.
SWEET 16
(1) Florida def. (4) UCLA: The Bruins have two good players; the Gators have about seven, including four seniors in the starting lineup. Scottie Wilbekin will lead them to their fourth straight Elite Eight.
(2) Kansas def. (3) Syracuse: Unlike the Buckeyes, the Jayhawks shoot the ball really well — they're fifth nationally at a 49.7 percent clip. With Embiid likely back for defensive purposes, they'll make 'em over the zone to victory.
ELITE EIGHT
(1) Florida def. (2) Kansas: Finally, the Gators will break through. I was at their Elite Eight loss to Louisville in 2012 (a game they led for large portions). In 2011, they dropped a nailbiter to Butler. And then last year, Michigan couldn't miss against them. This time around, the Gators will use their array of offensive weapons and dominate the Jayhawks' sometimes inconsistent backcourt.
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WEST
FIRST ROUND
(1) Arizona def. (16) Weber State: I love Damian Lillard's alma mater. I don't love them to beat Arizona.
(9) Oklahoma State def. (8) Gonzaga: This is one of those picks that you know could backfire because EVERYBODY is taking the Cowboys, but they are playing really well and Smart.
(4) San Diego State def. (13) New Mexico State: This game is worth mentioning for the simple fact that NMSU has a pair of big — understatement — brothers, Sim (7-5, 360) and Tanveer (7-3, 335) Bhullar. If they don't maul the Aztecs like the aliens in Space Jam, I think SDSU will escape.
(12) North Dakota State def. (5) Oklahoma: I can't help myself. I'm going with the "sexy pick." The Bison are the best shooting team in the nation and will win a barnburner against the Sooners.
(3) Creighton def. (14) Louisiana Lafayette: Forget what I said about not relying on one player. #FaithInMcDermott.
(11) Nebraska def. (6) Baylor: I just like Tim Miles too much and don't like Baylor enough — despite the incredible, all-over-the-court shooting of Brady Heslip — to not go with the Huskers.
(7) Oregon def. (10) BYU: Injury alert! — The Cougars are playing their first game sans Kyle Collinsworth (torn ACL), who led them in assists. Not good. Ducks quack on.
(2) Wisconsin def. (15) American: I'm very partial to American — I attend all their games, and host the ONLY WEEKLY PODCAST ABOUT AMERICAN BASKETBALL!! — but the Badgers will be too much to handle in Milwaukee. Not convinced? Listen to the podcast.
SECOND ROUND
(1) Arizona def. (9) Oklahoma State: I can't give you a really good reason why Arizona is clearly the better team other than they won a lot more games. I can say this: If you pick OSU to win in your bracket, there's a decent chance they won't even be in this game. That can't be said of the Wildcats.
(4) San Diego State def. (12) North Dakota State: Did you know it's been 25 years since Aztecs coach Steve Fisher took over my hometown Michigan Wolverines when Bill Frieder left the program and won the program's only national championship? He'll rekindle a little of that magic this March.
(3) Creighton def. (11) Nebraska: Nice one, Selection Committee. Let's take the two teams from Nebraska and not let them both get past the first weekend (ahem, TV ratings). Oh, the game? Two words: Doug McDermott.
(2) Wisconsin def. (7) Oregon: I just googled "Wisconsin vs. Oregon" and the first thing that popped up was a recap of the 2012 Rose Bowl, when the Ducks won 45-38. Funny enough, 45 points might have been a Badgers (winning!) score a couple years ago in basketball, but this is not your typical Wisconsin outfit (73.5 ppg!!!) and they're playing in Milwaukee.
SWEET 16
(1) Arizona def. (4) San Diego State: The Aztecs and their unruly fans might bring the noise, but Arizona will bring the D: The Wildcats gave up 39 points to Utah in a Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal.
(2) Wisconsin def. (3) Creighton: Did you know — Creighton 3-point specialist Ethan Wragge has taken two — two! — shots from inside the arc this year. He's attempted 220 3-pointers! Wisconsin is very good at defending the arc, where teams attempt just 25 percent of their shots from against the Badgers.
ELITE EIGHT
(1) Arizona def. (2) Wisconsin: Arizona beat Michigan, which beat Wisconsin, so... OK, in really breaking down this matchup, the Wildcats' ballhawking defense won't give the Badgers any open looks and Frank Kaminsky will have a rough afternoon (or evening) against the combination of Kaleb Tarczewski and Aaron Gordon (big, strong fellas!)
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MIDWEST
FIRST ROUND
(1) Wichita State def. (16) Cal Poly: I just watched the Mustangs (14-19 now!) dispatch of Texas Southern, and I gotta say, their confidence is high! They'll soak it up until reality sets in...
(8) Kentucky def. (9) Kansas State: Has anyone been talking about Kentucky the past couple days? Heard anything? Somehow the young Wildcats will cast aside the distractions and win a game.
(4) Louisville def. (13) Manhattan: Quick quiz: Who's the best college basketball team in New York City? Yep, the Manhattan Jaspers.
(12) North Carolina State def. (5) Saint Louis: Sorry, Billikens, but I'm going with the (it sometimes works) you're cold (four losses in five games), N.C. State is hot (beat Syracuse, won its First Four game) formula.
(3) Duke def. (14) Mercer: Upset alert — No, I'm not man enough to pick it, but the Bears have won their league back-to-back years and have, gulp, an all-seniors lineup. Like, who does that? Of course, none of 'em can hoop like Jabari Parker (at least they can drink legally better).
(11) Iowa/Tennessee def. (6) UMass: I'm watching the First Four game as I type this. Iowa is up at half 29-26. I might change this pick later. EDITING UPDATE: 57-52 Iowa, 4:35 left...
(7) Texas def. (10) Arizona State: Nitty gritty — the Longhorns ranked first in the Big 12 in rebounds; the Sun Devils were last in the Pac-12. For a team that's middle of the pack offensively, getting killed on the boards won't help.
(2) Michigan def. (15) Wofford: I don't know what to make of the fact that as a Michigan fan, I'm, like, not at all scared of the Terriers. They just don't move the needle. This probably portends bad things...
SECOND ROUND
(1) Wichita State def. (8) Kentucky: Oh, the Wildcats! Oh, the talent! Oh, oh, oh ... loss. Thankfully, it's a team game and talent doesn't win alone in March. The Shockers are the better team — by far.
(4) Louisville def. (12) N.C. State: T.J. Warren is amazing. If you don't know that, you haven't been watching basketball. However, the Wolfpack's guards will have a hard time even getting him the ball against the Cardinals' press. Advantage: L'ville.
(3) Duke def. (11) Iowa: How can I pick against Duke when I don't even know who they, might, be playing (UPDATE: 33-28 Iowa, early second half). Plus, game's in Raleigh. ... NEW UPDATE: five-point Iowa lead, 4 minutes left.
(2) Michigan def. (7) Texas: Yes, the Wolverines will struggle against Texas' rebounding and Big 12-best (also) shot-blocking ability. Until, that is, they step outside the arc and start raining 3s.
SWEET 16
(1) Wichita State def. (4) Louisville: Last year, the Shockers led Lousville 43-32 with 14:19 to play in the national semifinals. But the Cardinals, the best team in the land, got two 3s from Tim Henderson (whom 0.9 percent of fans outside of Kentucky knew was even on the team) and survived against a team that no one expected to be there. This year is different. The Shockers expect to win every game, have nearly everyone back from that game, and won't blow another lead. Different result.
(2) Michigan def. (3) Duke: You know what? I was going to take Duke, but so is nearly everyone. So I'm changing things up. Yes, the Blue Devils beat Michigan in December, but that's when Nik Stauskas shot his shoe better than the basketball. Expect a huge game from the sophomore playing with a chip on his shoulder. Wolverines advance in Indy.
ELITE EIGHT
(1) Wichita State def. (2) Michigan: You know I love my Wolverines, but that means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING (sadly) and the Shockers are the more complete team. The big key will be at point guard, where Missouri Valley POY Fred VanVleet will hound Michigan's freshman/sophomore duo of Derrick Walton and Spike Albrecht and have no issues creating consistent offense for the incredibly balanced Shockers against the Big Ten's worst defense.
FINAL FOUR
(1) Florida def. (4) Michigan State: They're not as good, but this Gators team reminds me a little bit of the back-to-back champions of 2006-07. Everyone knows their role; it's senior-dominated; and the Gators can score in a variety of ways. That's a recipe for success in the Final Four, as the Gators get a little revenge for that national title game loss way back in 2000.
(1) Wichita State def. (1) Arizona: This will be a hard-fought, low-scoring game, but the Wildcat's Pac-12 worst free-throw shooting and lack of depth will hurt them and balanced Wichita State will work the matchups to avoid defensive stalwarts T.J. McConnell and 7-foot Kaleb Tarczewski.
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CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Wichita State 71, Florida 68: Honestly, I could go back to the coin flip here. Instead, I'll go to the history books. The Shockers have a chance at, yes, the best season in the history of college basketball — 40-0. How incredible would that be? Enrollment would increase 700 percent at the Kansas school. I'm not saying this will mean anything on April 7 or negatively affect Florida, but all season long the Shockers have relished being undefeated and haven't shied away from the pressure. That will be no different on the biggest stage under the brightest lights. Fred VanVleet will battle Scottie Wilbekin to a draw, Cleanthony Early will impress NBA scouts with his array of inside moves, and Tekele Cotton will make a huge defense play late to seal the victory and silence every last doubter.
Am I picking with my heart? Just a tad. But remember — there's no true formula to winning in March.
Enjoy the Madness!
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