First off, let me say this. Life is busy. Doing the AU Hoops Podcast every week, plus my regular job, plus dogsitting has kept me from doing a lot of research for this. So there's that.
Take my advice with caution.
But I have watched a fair amount of hoops since November. Really, a ton (as my friend Sam Healy of the podcast would now pipe in, "In other news, Jake is still single." Yes, it true. Prospects who are willing to put up with a basketball nerd? Send 'em my way). And here's my main takeaway from the first five months of this college basketball season.
The top teams are pretty darn good.
The top seven teams — including unbeaten Kentucky — all have four or fewer losses entering the Dance, and Duke is the lone squad with four. I went all the way back to the 2007-08 season — the year when, if you remember, for the first time ever, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four — and even that season only had six four-losses-or-fewer teams entering the tournament.
My point: This is a rare really good year for the teams at the top.
Does that mean upsets won't happen? Of course not. Maybe, in fact, these teams are due to lose. But my money — and believe me, I'm betting a little — is on those at the top mostly holding serve (sorry, I miss tennis) until the later rounds.
Having given my manifesto, here are the picks. As always, I am not liable for any ills that shall befall you as a result of listening to any (or all) of my choices.
MIDWEST
Round of 64
1 Kentucky def. 16 Hampton: C'mon, man.
9 Purdue def. 8 Cincy: If there's one first-round game not to watch, this might be it. I'd be surprised if the score leaves the 50s.
5 WVU def. 12 Buffalo: Injury update — Juwan Staten and Gary Browne will be back for the Mountaineers. That's not good news for Bobby Hurley.
4 Maryland def. 13 Valpo: If there's a dude who wants to win more than Dez Wells, show me him.
6 Butler def. 11 Texas. I LOVE BUTLER. After visiting Hinkle Fieldhouse this December, there's no way I can't pick the Bulldogs.
3 Notre Dame def. 14 Northeastern: Did you see what the Irish did to Duke and North Carolina?
7 Wichita State def. 10 Indiana: Fred. Van. Vleet (actually, it's VanVleet, but I needed the dramatic effect). Not sure there's a point guard I trust more in the country.
2 Kansas def. 15 New Mexico State: Wait ... the WAC still exists?
Round of 32
1 Kentucky def. 9 Purdue: C'mon, man.
5 WVU def. 4 Maryland: The Terps were, according to KenPom (if you don't know KenPom, you're outdated .. sorry), the second luckiest team in the country during the season. That runs out against the Mountaineers.
3 Notre Dame def. 6 Butler: In a classic Indiana battle, Jerian Grant is the difference for the Irish.
7 Wichita State def. 2 Kansas: These schools are separated by 161 miles. They haven't played since 1993. According to KU, it's not best for their program. WSU will play with a chip on their shoulder and win the rivalry (can it even be called that?) game.
Sweet 16
1 Kentucky def. 5 WVU: C'mon, man.
3 Notre Dame def. 7 Wichita State: For one, the game is in Cleveland. More importantly, the Irish have more offensive weapons (fun sports word!) and can beat a fast-breaking team like WSU (see: UNC).
Elite 8
1 Kentucky def. 3 Notre Dame: C'mon man. No analysis needed. Yet.
WEST
Round of 64
1 Wisconsin def. 16 Coastal Carolina: Last year the Chanticleers, a 16 seed, took an early 10-point lead against UVA before losing by 11. It'll be uglier vs. the Badgers.
8 Oregon def. 9 Oklahoma State: Someone remind me why the Cowboys (18-13 and having lost six of their last seven) are a nine, let alone in the tourney? The 25-9 Ducks will get rid of 'em.
5 Arkansas def. 12 Wofford: Yep, this is a popular upset pick, so I'm going in the oppo direction. Remember that "luck" statistic? No team has had more of it than Wofford. It runs out Thursday.
4 North Carolina def. 13 Harvard: The Crimson are somehow here (I still can't believe Yale isn't) for the fourth straight year and gunning for their third consecutive Big Dance upset. Nope. Not against this super talented UNC squad.
11 Mississippi def. 6 Xavier: Did you see Ole Miss overcome a 17-point deficit against BYU Tuesday night? That was an offensive EXPLOSION. Why not again?
3 Baylor def. 14 Georgia State: Georgia State is a fun story (the coach with the Achilles torn in the ugly title game celebration; the coach's son; the transfer with the horrific injury in his past, Kevin Ware). Baylor is just better at basketball.
10 Ohio State def. 7 VCU: Flip a coin. That's who'll win this game.
2 Arizona def. 15 Texas Southern: This will be A LOT closer than you might think. Texas Southern is coached by Mike Davis (formerly of IU) and beat Michigan State on the road in December — a game I watched on my laptop (in other news, I'm still single).
Round of 32
1 Wisconsin def. 8 Oregon: A rematch of last year's game in the same round, which was ridiculously good. This one will be similarly decent for about 30 minutes, but the improved Badgers will pull away.
4 North Carolina def. 5 Arkansas: Two teams that like to run. One team that can also throw it down low to about four different options.
3 Baylor def. 11 Mississippi: Rico Gathers (son of the late Hank Gathers) is a FORCE down low, with 116 more boards than any other Big 12 player. He'll torture the Rebels.
2 Arizona def. 10 Ohio State: First off, I flipped a coin to pick OSU. Secondly, Arizona is really, really good.
Sweet 16
1 Wisconsin def. 4 North Carolina. Wow, this is tough. Here's the thing: North Carolina might actually have a little bit more talent, but the Tar Heels are sporadic. The Badgers' performances are less likely to vary, and having the national POY, Frank the Tank, helps.
2 Arizona def. 3 Baylor: Gathers is neutralized by 7-footer Tarczewski and 6-9 Ashley down low, and 'Zona controls the tempo. How's that for analysis?
Elite 8
2 Arizona def. 1 Wisconsin: I've liked the 'Cats since November, and there's no turning back. It's a rematch of last year's Elite Eight, and this time 'Zona has just enough to win a tight one.
EAST
Round of 64
1 Villanova def. 16 Lafayette: Have you listened to the AU Hoops Podcast? Subscribe on iTunes and you'll know more than you could ever imagine about Lafayette and the league it plays in! Of course, the Leopards will also lose to Nova.
8 N.C. State def. 9 LSU: I must admit, I have a soft spot for the Wolfpack. I have a friend, Amy, who went to N.C. State, and I always want them to do well. Plus, they've got a dude named Cat Barber. What a name!
4 Louisville def. 13 UC Irvine: A) I don't like Louisville and I don't particularly want to see it succeed; 2) UC Irvine has the best nickname (Anteaters!) and is also playing in its first Big Dance. Sad truth: L'ville will win by a lot.
5 Northern Iowa def. 12 Wyoming: While we're doing the fact thing, Northern Iowa is 30-3 and has one of the country's best players, Seth Tuttle. Don't make this your annual 12-5 upset.
6 Providence def. 11 Dayton/Boise State: Confession — I'm watching the play-in game right now, and the team I thought could beat Providence (Dayton) is getting crushed (err, now just beaten). If this changes, I might change this pick. Continue...
3 Oklahoma def. 14 Albany: I still can't believe how Albany made the Dance and crushed the hearts of Stony Brook fans far and wide. The Great Danes are sent back to reality by the Sooners.
7 Michigan State. def. 10 Georgia: Tom Izzo. Michigan State. March. Enough said.
2 UVA def. 15 Belmont: I'll say this ... the game could be close. If there's a team out there that can shoot lights out over the Cavaliers' pack line D, it's the Bruins. Did you see how they beat Murray State to get here? Goodness. This could be fun if they get hot. Or ugly if they don't.
Round of 32
1 Villanova def. 8 N.C. State: 'Nova is the least-talked-about really good team in the field. They'll be talked about after whooping the Wolfpack.
5 Northern Iowa def. 4 Louisville: To be honest, this game is impossible to pick. The Cardinals are a team that can beat anyone or self-destruct in any game. I'm picking self-destruction against the disciplined Panthers.
3 Oklahoma def. 6 Providence: Conference POY Buddy Hield leads the Sooners over Cooley & the Gang.
7 Michigan State def. 2 UVA: Hard, hard pick. UVA is really good. But goodness, the Spartans are on a roll. Maybe I'm a biased Midwesterner, but I can't pick against them (even as a UM guy).
Sweet 16
1 Villanova def. 5 Northern Iowa: This will be a great battle of outside shooting, plus Tuttle going up against Daniel Ochefu and company down low. In the end, the 'Cats have more scorers.
7 Michigan State def. 3 Oklahoma: C'mon, there' no way I'd not pick the Spartans to build on the momentum of taking down one of the nation's top three teams for most of the season.
Elite 8
1 Villanova def. 7 Michigan State: Shooting, shooting, shooting. The Wildcats do it better than just about anyone. Here's a stat for ya: In their last eight games playing in the nation's third toughest conference, the Wildcats scored 1.28 ppp. That's insane! They'll have enough to outscore Sparty.
SOUTH
Round of 64
1 Duke def. 16 Robert Morris: Was there a team that needed a 1 seed more than Duke? The difference is huge. No 1 seeds, of course, have never lost. And the Blue Devils have lost as a 2 twice in four seasons.
8 SDSU def. 9 St. John's: A) The Storm just suspended one of their top dudes the day of the Selection Show!; B) This has to happen so Steve Fisher can play the Devils, and we can watch EVEN MORE Fab Five footage.
12 Stephen F. Austin def. 5 Utah: Simply put, there has to be a 12-5 upset. So this is it.
13 Eastern Washington def. 4 Georgetown: The Hoyas, overseeded to begin with, have this issue with getting upset in the Dance. It becomes mental and the nation's leading scorer, Tyler Harvey, makes it reality for the Eagles.
6 SMU def. 11 UCLA: For the record, the Bruins will likely play very well. That's usually what happens for teams that everyone says don't belong (see: VCU, 2011). Still, LB's Mustangs are built-Ford tough. There's no other way they win that AAC title game at a UConn team Sunday that needed the W to make the Dance. Tough.
3 Iowa State def. 14 UAB: The Blazers pulling off a run to make the Dance after the school cut their football program is a nice story. It'll be ended abruptly by a bunch of Cyclones.
10 Davidson def. 7 Iowa. As us Big Ten followers noted throughout January and February, there's "Good Iowa" and "Bad Iowa." On the other hand, Davidson won the A-10 and is never out of a game because of shooting. That's enough for me. Plus, Adam Woodbury is a jerk.
2 Gonzaga def. 15 North Dakota State: There'll be no repeat magic for the Bison, one of last year's first-round darlings. These Zags are good and might finally be ready to take a Gonzaga team further than expectations beginning here.
Round of 32
1 Duke def. 8 SDSU: Duke beats Steve Fisher again. Sad face.
13 Eastern Washington def. 12 Stephen F. Austin: The nation's leading scorer and the sixth-best-scoring team in the country advance! College hoops needs more points; it needs more Eastern Washington!
3 Iowa State. def. 6 SMU: This'll come down to a battle of the point guards, and 6-2 Monte Morris will outplay hot-shooting 5-9 Nic Moore. How's that for analysis at 11:05pm on a Wednesday!?
2 Gonzaga def. 10 Davidson: First of, one of these darn "Wildcats" needs to be knocked off. Secondly, the Bulldogs are pretty darn good and extremely balanced.
Sweet 16
1 Duke def. 13 Eastern Washington: Ah, the dream has to end somewhere, and Houston will be that place. Duke's freshman-senior guard combo (Jones and Cook) will lead the way, and Okafor will feast on a team whose starters aren't taller than 6-8.
3 Iowa State def. 2 Gonzaga: Hey, well at least this will be the Zags' first Sweet 16 trip since 2009. This will also be a great game, but the Zags will struggle defending the versatility of 6-8 Georges Niang.
Elite 8
3 Iowa State def. 1 Duke: In The Mayor I trust. Fred Hoiberg has one helluva team led by a point guard that doesn't turn it over, the previously mentioned Niang, a lights-out shooter in Naz Long, and Mr. Tough in Dustin Hogue. Throw in the fact that the Cyclones are as good as they get at coming back in a game, and I'll ride 'em into Indianapolis.
FINAL FOUR
Kentucky def. Arizona, 67-59: OK, you want analysis? These Wildcats are better than those Wildcats. Arizona has two really good bigs; Kentucky has four or five. Arizona has one very good point guard; Kentucky has two with contrasting styles. Kentucky's sharpshooter is better than Arizona's. Don't get me wrong, this'll be a good game. But, simply, the Wildcats (these Wildcats) are better.
Villanova def. Iowa State, 78-75: Points, points, points! Who said the college game has a scoring problem? It won't be evident in this shootout. The Wildcats have five guys who average at least one made 3 per game, and the triples won't stop falling against a Cyclones team that has allowed opponents to shoot 35 percent from deep (231st best in the country).
NATIONAL TITLE GAME
Kentucky def. Villanova, 71-65: As I said early many times, c'mon man. You can't as an outsider realistically say that when evaluating the facts, you think Kentucky will lose. You simply can't. The Wildcats are not only the most talented team in the country, the team with the best record, and the team with the most depth ... they also are incredibly unselfish, they have won close games, they have played from behind, and they have won in different ways.
Would I like to see a different result? More madness? More unpredictability? Absolutely — that's part of the beauty of March. But as I said at the beginning, this is the year of chalk, sports fans, and no team epitomizes that more than Kentucky.
These Wildcats.
As always, enjoy the madness (or, if it's lacking, simply the basketball).
No comments:
Post a Comment